Vikings, Cousins head to San Francisco with confidence after thrilling upset of Saints;
Keys to knocking off the NFC’s No. 1 seeded 49ers
By Jeff Diamond, former Vikings GM who is co-hosting Monday Night Purple with Joe Anderson this season on News Talk 830 WCCO. Next show is Monday, January 13 live from 5:30-6:30 pm at B-52 Burgers and Brew in Inver Grove Heights with safety and NFL interceptions leader Anthony Harris and No. 3 tight end and a key player in the running game-Tyler Conklin.
After their exciting upset win over the Saints in the wild card playoff, the Vikings head to San Francisco for the NFC Divisional playoffs knowing they have to avoid letting the euphoria of a walk-off playoff victory hinder their performance in the upcoming game.
That was the mistake made by the 2017 Vikings after the Minneapolis Miracle win over the Saints in the divisional playoff round.
Kyle Rudolph, who caught the overtime winning TD pass from Kirk Cousins in New Orleans last Sunday, addressed the importance of quickly moving on to the next challenge especially with the game on Saturday afternoon instead of Sunday.
“I think being on a short week forces you to mentally put the last game aside,” Rudolph said. “I think the challenge becomes getting fresh on a short week and getting ready to go out to San Francisco.
“The core group of guys that we’ve had here for a long time were there two years ago when we had the greatest win ever and thought we were destined to win the Super Bowl that was in our own stadium and then we laid an egg in Philadelphia. It was a good win in New Orleans but it’s just the first step and we have to put it behind us and go out and play well in San Francisco. It’s win or go home.”
The Vikings are again an underdog (by 6 ½ points) and Coach Mike Zimmer can play the no respect card as he did prior to the Saints game when his team was an 8 point underdog.
Zimmer and the entire Vikings organization are happy that their quarterback Kirk Cousins answered his critics who say he can’t perform in big moments as he won his first career playoff game. It doesn’t get any bigger than the NFL playoffs and Cousins was terrific with his three key throws on the winning drive including the perfect deep throw for 43 yards to Adam Thielen to set up the 4-yard game-winner to Rudolph on 3rd-and-goal.
Having Dalvin Cook back in the lineup along with a healthy Thielen made a big difference so Cousins had his full arsenal of weapons just as the return of Eric Kendricks from a quad injury was key in a strong defensive effort. More of the same is needed this week against the top seeded 49ers.
If you’re looking for good omens for the Vikings, three road teams won in the wild card round so the Vikings hope that trend carries over for them as they travel west. Also, the game will be televised on NBC and the Vikings last appearance with the Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth and Michele Tafoya broadcast team resulted in a big Sunday night win in Dallas on November 10. Then there’s the fact that the Vikings are halfway to repeating the 1987 feat of winning playoff games at New Orleans in the wild card round and then beating the top seeded 49ers.
Here are my eight keys to knocking off San Francisco and advancing to the NFC Championship at either Green Bay or Seattle:
1.Kirk ride that wave of confidence and study how the Saints put up 46 points on SF in Week 14: Last week’s win was monumental for Cousins confidence and legacy along with the team’s belief in him. The win over the Saints likely will result in a long term extension this coming offseason before he enters the final year of his contract. Cousins knows there’s more work to be done and I’m sure that he, offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and offensive advisor Gary Kubiak are studying how Drew Brees threw for 349 yards and 5 TDs in the wild 48-46 49ers win over the Saints in Week 14.
Cousins had a good game against mostly the same defensive cast in last season’s opening game when he passed for 244 yards and 2 TDs with no interceptions in Minnesota’s 24-16 victory. A strong running game should set up the play action game but Cousins will need to get the ball out quick when pressured by an excellent front four. If he and the offense can convert third downs as effectively as they did in New Orleans (56%), the Vikings’ chances to win greatly improve.
2. Big dose of Cook and the running game to set up play action: Cook looked fresh and quick last week and his 28 carries and three receptions proved he’s back to full strength. The 49ers are No. 1 against the pass but rank No. 16 in run defense so I look for another 40 carry day for the Vikings backs led of course by the dynamic Cook. He could have a huge game as a runner and as a receiver out of the backfield (he caught 6 for 55 yards last year against the 49ers). The Saints clamped down on the Vikings’ screen game but I think it will be a bigger factor against the 49ers aggressive front seven
3. O-line play well: Obviously the offensive line must play as well as they did last week in opening up holes for Cook and Alexander Mattison while protecting Cousins. Arik Armstead (10 sacks), rookie first rounder Nick Bosa (9 sacks) and DeForest Buckner (7.5 sacks) will be a big challenge for the O-line along with Fred Warner, the 49ers leading tackler. If the O-line and tight ends along with help from the receivers all bring it to the 49ers physically as they did last week, the Vikings chances to win improve significantly.
4. Good games from Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph and more Irv Smith Jr.: Premier receivers have had big days late in the season against the San Francisco secondary. The Saints’ Michael Thomas had 11 receptions for 134 yards and 1 TD and Julio Jones had 13 catches for 134 yards and 2 TDs including the game-winner in Atlanta’s Week 15 upset in San Francisco. Thielen, who is dealing with an ankle injury but hopes to play on Saturday, had a 102 yard receiving day in last year’s opening game vs. San Francisco. So Thielen and Diggs should have ample opportunities to produce and the clutch Rudolph must be targeted in the red zone. Smith only was thrown to once last week (drawing a pass interference penalty) and he should have more chances this week.
5. Contain the strong 49ers rushing attack: Both teams emphasize the run game as the 49ers were No.2 in league rushing while the Vikings ranked No. 6. Raheem Mostert has taken over as the most productive back but Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman also contribute and rookie receiver Deebo Samuel is a threat on reverses. Kendricks, Anthony Barr, Linval Joseph and the rest of the Vikings front seven must be strong against the run.
6. Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen and Company remind Jimmy G how hard a time he had last year against the Vikings D: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo has had a good season--a 102 rating with 27 TD passes but he has thrown 13 interceptions. He suffered his first NFL defeat at Minnesota last season and he had a rough day as we was sacked three times and threw three interceptions including a Pick Six by Mike Hughes (now on injured reserve with a neck injury).
Zimmer made a brilliant move last week when he had Hunter and Griffen rushing from the inside defensive tackle spots against the Saints weaker guards with Ifeadi Odenigbo and Stephen Weatherly pressuring from the defensive end spots. The change-up created some confusion for the Saints and helped create a lot of pressure on Brees. Expect more of the same this week, especially when Zimmer and his defensive coaches see that Atlanta’s excellent defensive tackle Grady Jarrett had six pressures and six tackles for the Falcons against the 49ers guards and center four weeks ago.
The athletic and powerful Hunter reminds me of Vikings Hall of Famer Chris Doleman who had two sacks and dominated up front in the 1987 upset win over the 49ers. He’s capable of making the big plays to change the game as he did on his key strip sack of Brees. And Griffen played his best game of the year last week. They should be all over Garoppolo on Saturday.
7. Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris control all pro tight end George Kittle while the corners handle Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders and Andrew Sendejo must play well at slot corner: Smith earned Defensive Player of the Week honors in the win over the 49ers last year with 7 tackles, 1 interception, 1 sack and 2 tackles for loss. Harris is on a roll with interceptions in his last three games.
This twosome, who have had excellent seasons, must contain an outstanding tight end in Kittle who caught 85 passes for 1,053 yards and 5 TDs. Kittle had 5 catches for 90 yards against the Vikings last season. Samuel and Sanders are a good pair of wide receivers but if the Vikings corners play as well as they did last week, they should be fine. Xavier Rhodes gave up one long pass but overall had one of his best games of the season against Thomas and the Saints.
It's likely that 49ers Coach Kyle Shanahan will try to go after Sendejo so he’ll need to play well like last week and get help from Smith and Harris as needed.
Overall, the Vikings defense had a great day against the prolific Saints, especially in holding them to 36% efficiency on third down. A similar effort should result in a win.
8. Bailey outkick Gould and no long kick returns: Bailey has been great on his field goal kicking the past several weeks while it’s been a rough season for ex-Bear Gould who is 23 of 31. The 49ers don’t have a kick return threat like New Orleans’ Deonte Harris but the Vikings still need to cover well if Bailey’s kickoffs and Britton Colquitt’s punts are returnable.
The pick: I think the Saints are a better team than the 49ers, especially at quarterback. Cousins should be playing confident and Garoppolo is no Joe Montana or Steve Young (two 49er Hall of Fame QBs), at least not yet. That doesn’t mean the Vikings will win as anything can happen in a high stakes game where turnovers play a major role but I feel better about Minnesota’s chances to win this week than I did last week.
I think the Vikings have the better skill position players on offense starting with Cousins over Garoppolo. I see 120 plus yards rushing plus 60 yards receiving for Cook. Hunter and Griffen should lead the charge that will sack Garoppolo three times and pressure him into at least two interceptions.
The 49ers home crowd is not nearly as loud as what the Vikings handled well in New Orleans. The pressure is on the 49ers as the No. 1 seed and favorites to win and the Vikings are embracing the underdog mentality. I’m picking the Vikings 27-24 on a late Bailey field goal.
Around the NFL Observations:
1.The other NFC divisional playoff is tough to call. I think Russell Wilson is playing better than Aaron Rodgers at this juncture and he’s got a great weapon in rookie second round receiver D.K. Metcalf who is coming off 160 receiving yards and 1 TD in Seattle’s wild card win in Philly. The Packers defense led by a terrific pass rusher in Za’Darius Smith is formidable but Bobby Wagner, Jadeveon Clowney and the Seattle defense should control Aaron Jones running and slow down Rodgers and the Green Bay offense that is lacking receivers beyond Davante Adams. I’m picking Wilson to find a way to win it late and then host the Vikings in the NFC Championship next week.
2. In the AFC, everyone’s hoping for a Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes matchup in the conference title game. First Jackson and the Ravens must handle a hot Tennessee team that loves to give Derrick Henry the ball behind a strong offensive line. Henry ran for 182 yards and 1 TD as the Titans knocked out the defending champion Patriots in Foxboro. Jackson has never won a playoff game but I think he gets it done with his legs and his arm.
The Mahomes against Deshaun Watson matchup is a nightmare for Bears fans and Chicago GM Ryan Pace to watch after he selected Mitch Trubisky over those two Pro Bowl QBs. Kansas City’s defense has really come on in recent weeks and I think they’ll be all over Watson while Mahomes makes the plays to win this game.
Jeff Diamond was the NFL Executive of the Year in 1998 after the Vikings' 15-1 season. He also is former president of the Tennessee Titans. He does sports/business consulting, media and speaking work including corporate and college speaking on Negotiation, Management, Leadership and Sports Business--contact him at diamondj4@comcast.net
