Zimmer weighs how to approach Bears finale with playoff spot set…Keys to beating Bears Sunday
By Jeff Diamond, former Vikings GM who is co-hosting Monday Night Purple with Joe Anderson this season on News Talk 830 WCCO. Next show is Monday, December 30 live from 5:30-6:30 pm at B-52 Burgers and Brew in Inver Grove Heights with Eric Kendricks and Bisi Johnson as player guests.
Locked in as the NFC’s sixth seed after the disappointing Monday night loss to the Packers, the big question this week is how Vikings Coach Mike Zimmer will approach Sunday’s regular season finale against the Bears.
I think it will be a mixed bag for Zimmer. His team has lost three straight to the Bears and with an 0-3 record vs. Chicago and Green Bay this season, I’m sure he’d like to beat the Bears and not enter the playoffs with two straight losses and winless this season against the team’s top two rivals. But Zimmer also wants a fully healthy team ready for the playoffs on the following Saturday or Sunday.
“There has been a lot of consternation on trying to figure everything out,” Zimmer said. “You always want to play well. These guys like to play. But you don’t want to get anybody hurt. The new season is coming up here in a week.”
Assuming he plays this Sunday, Kirk Cousins and the offensive line in particular will try to rebound from a sub-par performance against Green Bay—five sacks allowed and only 122 passing yards-- after a 10 game stretch of mostly solid play that earned the team a playoff berth.
“We have to regroup, finish the regular season strong, at home in front of our fans,” Cousins said. “When you don’t play your best, it bothers you but thankfully we have a playoff game ahead in addition to the Bears game. There’s work to be done and hopefully we’ll put a good performance together, execute and build momentum, and that will put us in a better place, starting this Sunday.”
Zimmer already has declared Cook (shoulder) and leading tackler Eric Kendricks (quad) out this week so they should be healthy for the playoffs. No. 2 running back Alexander Mattison is listed as questionable and there’s a good chance he stays on the sidelines in a game that has no effect on playoff positioning. And depending on how the game is going, don’t be surprised to see most of the starters pulled in the second half.
Here are my eight keys to the Vikings ending the Bears’ three game win streak in the series between the division rivals and regaining positive momentum entering the postseason:
1. Win turnover battle: It’s usually the greatest predictor of who wins although last week Vikings forced three Packers turnovers and had just one giveaway yet still lost. Turnovers have been the biggest difference for both the Vikings and Bears from last season to this season with Minnesota improving its ratio from 0 to +13 while Chicago has regressed from +12 to -2. The biggest difference for the Bears is going from 27 interceptions as they went 12-4 last season to picking off only eight passes in this 7-8 season.
2. Get some running game established: Cook was held to 35 yards rushing and the Vikings to just 40 yards on the ground in the September game with the Bears. The Vikings No. 7 ranked rushing attack needs to do much better than last time against Chicago and approach 100 yards rushing against the league’s No. 6 run defense if they are going to win as the running game sets up the play action game that can be so effective.
The Vikings obviously miss a great back in Cook when he’s out. Mike Boone is likely to get the start and he’s a good back but the offensive line needs to open up more holes for him—as they did against the Chargers two weeks ago but failed to do against the Packers. Ameer Abdullah also will get a lot of action as he did last week. With excellent defenders and run stoppers Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith all injured and ruled out, it should help the Vikings run game and overall offensive attack.
3. Better protection for Cousins, better play from him and double Khalil Mack: The Vikings offensive line (along with the tight ends and blocking backs) have protected Cousins well most of the season with only 28 sacks allowed. The two big exceptions have been five sacks by the Packers last week and six sacks in the Week 4 16-6 loss in Chicago.
All pro Khalil Mack has killed the Vikings the past two years and he had 1.5 sacks and a forced fumble in the last meeting. Minnesota must double team Mack at all times or he’ll wreak havoc as Green Bay’s Za’Darius Smith did last week with 3.5 sacks and five tackles for loss.
4. Get Thielen and Diggs going along with the tight ends: Thielen had no catches last week and the Vikings must get their two-time Pro Bowler back to being a major part of the offense. Diggs did have 108 receiving yards in Chicago but a lot of that production came after the game was decided. If the Vikings are going to beat the Bears and then get on a playoff run, they need all of their excellent receivers to be a big part of it, including the tight ends.
5. Stop the Bears run game including Trubisky’s scrambles: Chicago’s run game has been lousy this season as they’re ranked No. 29. The O-line has not done well in run blocking and it was a mistake to trade Jordan Howard to Philly as rookie David Montgomery averages only 3.5 yards per carry. Trubisky hurt the Vikings with his QB runs last season but his rushing total is down this season (from 421 yards to 193 yards). He was knocked out in the earlier game on a hit by Danielle Hunter as he was scrambling and the same thing happened last season when he was hit by Harrison Smith so Trubisky may be reluctant to run against the Vikings D which would be a good thing for Minnesota.
Stopping the Bears’ run game will be the goal for Zimmer as he wants to make the Bears offense one dimensional and then come after Trubisky.
6. Hunter, Griffen & Co. finish strong and LBs and DBs cover Robinson and Cohen: The Vikings pass rush sacked Chase Daniel just once after he relieved Trubisky on the first series in Chicago. The Vikings have been rotating the defensive linemen and it’s worked well with Hunter and Griffen leading the way. The crowd noise should help the pass rushers to pressure Trubisky into mistakes but the Vikings’ linebackers and secondary must control wide receiver Allen Robinson (89 catches for 1,076 yards and 7 TDs) and Tarik Cohen (70 catches, 412 yards, 3 TDs) out of the backfield. Cohen had a TD catch against the Vikings last time the teams met.
7. Special teams control Patterson and Cohen: Former Viking Cordarrelle Patterson is a Pro Bowl selection this season as a returner based on his 29.5 yard average. Vikings kicker Dan Bailey needs to boot his kickoffs out of the end zone. And Cohen is an excellent punt returner so punter Britton Colquitt will be looking to kick it high and force fair catches. A couple missed field goals by shaky Bears kicker Eddie Pineiro would help the Vikings cause.
8. Get a comfortable lead and then pull as many starters as possible: This is Zimmer’s hope just as occurred for Bears’ Coach Matt Nagy in last season’s finale when the Bears had nothing to play for and still knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs even with most of his starters pulled by the fourth quarter.
The pick: Vikings finish 11-5 after beating the Bears: The Bears have had the Vikings number lately but this Chicago team is beat up and ready to move on to 2020. I think the Vikings want to finish strong at home and stop the Bears winning streak against them. It won’t be easy to move the ball against a still tough Bears D, especially without Dalvin Cook. The Minnesota defense should control this game, force Trubisky into a couple turnovers and the offense will do enough to gain the victory and then the focus will quickly shift to postseason.
Around the NFL Observations:
1. I think the Saints are the strongest team in the NFC entering the playoffs. The Vikings will be headed to New Orleans if San Francisco wins in Seattle and Green Bay is victorious as expected in Detroit. I see the Seahawks as the slightly easier wild card round opponent due to season-ending injuries to the Seahawks top two running backs—Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny—and at least a two week knee injury sustained by their best offensive lineman—left tackle Duane Brown.
So I’d suggest Vikings fans root for the Seahawks to beat the 49ers on Sunday night and with a Packers win in Motown, the Vikings would go to Seattle for their wild card game
2. Other big games in Week 17 with playoff implications include the Eagles trying to win the weak NFC East with a road victory against the Giants but they’ll have to do it without their best receiver—tight end Zach Ertz. The last AFC playoff spot can be claimed by Tennessee with a win in Houston or Pittsburgh if the Titans fall and the Steelers win in Baltimore against a Ravens team that already has locked up the No. 1 seed. I see the Steelers getting the win and the final spot after the Titans fall short.
Jeff Diamond was the NFL Executive of the Year in 1998 after the Vikings' 15-1 season. He also is former president of the Tennessee Titans. He does sports/business consulting, media and speaking work including corporate and college speaking on Negotiation, Management, Leadership and Sports Business--contact him at diamondj4@comcast.net
