By Jeff Diamond, former Vikings GM who is co-hosting Monday Night Purple with Joe Anderson this season on News Talk 830 WCCO. Next show is Monday, October 21 live from 6-7 pm at B-52 Burgers and Brew in Inver Grove Heights with starting fullback C.J. Ham as the Vikings player guest.
After two straight impressive victories over the Giants and Eagles, the Vikings head back into the division for an important game on Sunday with the improved Lions. Minnesota will be seeking its first division road win of the season after falling short in Green Bay and Chicago.
And a win, as always, will be important: if the Vikings want to win the NFC North, they need to win divisional games to pad their division record (the second tie-breaker after head-to-head if they wind up tied at the top). Minnesota also doesn’t want to let Detroit improve on their 2-2-1 record as they have a relatively easy schedule remaining compared to the other teams in the division.
A win in Detroit followed by a likely home win next Thursday night against the lowly Redskins would have the Vikings in good shape at 6-2 and in strong position to contend for the division title or a wild card berth.
Seven keys to a Vikings win in Detroit:
1.Stay hot, Kirk: Don’t look now, all you Cousins detractors, but after two great games he’s climbed to No. 3 in NFL passer ratings at 108.4 behind only Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes. He’s been doing a much better job the past two weeks of stepping up in the pocket, rolling out to buy time and avoid the pass rush and throwing with accuracy. Detroit’s No. 29 ranked defense is shaky against the run and the pass so it should be another good opportunity for Cousins and his talented skill position players to be productive but they’ve got to do it in an NFC North road game this week.
2. Keep the balance on offense: I like how Stefanski has been calling lots of screens and quick passes to slow down the pass rush. Cousins is hitting Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs with short passes to set up longer routes and Stefanski has Cousins rolling out off play action and then throwing intermediate and deep routes.
I also like that the team’s talented tight ends were targeted more last week with Kyle Rudolph catching three passes for 36 yards and Irv Smith Jr. having two receptions for 29 yards. In the 27-9 win over the Lions in Detroit last December, Rudolph had nine catches for 122 yards and two TDs. It’s a good idea for Cousins to look for Rudolph and Smith a lot this Sunday.
The Packers rushed for 170 yards in their Monday win over Detroit which bodes well for Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison to have big days on the ground. In the Vikings 24-9 home victory over the Lions last season, Cook had a 70 yard run. There should be some explosive runs to be had this week too.
3. Protect the football: Cousins and his offensive mates need to be careful and avoid coughing up the ball as the Lions D leads the NFL with eight fumble recoveries. Cook and Mattison have each lost a fumble the past two weeks and we know Cousins has had issues with ball security.
4. Stop the run and get after Matthew Stafford as the Vikings did last November: Minnesota must contain the running game led by a good back in Kerryon Johnson which they did well last year. Green Bay held Johnson to 34 yards rushing on Monday night and the Lions to 56 yards on the ground. Then Coach Mike Zimmer can unleash his pass rush and get after Matthew Stafford who is probably still having nightmares of the 10 sack beating the Vikings D put on him at U.S. Bank Stadium last season. In that game, Danielle Hunter had 3.5 sacks to lead the way and also returned a Stafford fumble for a TD.
5. Cover the backs out of the backfield: Philly’s Miles Sanders beat both of the Vikings star linebackers—Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr-- for big plays last week. So Zimmer must have his linebackers and safeties ready to cover Johnson out of the backfield in this copycat league. His corners must be on their game against a talented wide receiver trio of leading receiver Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola. First round tight end T.J. Hockenson from Iowa also is a prime target for Stafford. Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris will have primary responsibility to handle him along with Kendricks.
6. Win the special teams battle: Dan Bailey has now made eight of nine field goal attempts on the year and needs to keep it going in another indoor venue. Jamal Agnew had a 100 yard kickoff return for a score in Detroit’s Week 3 upset win in Philly so he must be contained in the kicking game. Booting kickoffs out of the end zone is a good plan for Bailey this week and the coaches will ask punter Britton Colquitt for lots of hang time to force fair catches. And perhaps Marcus Sherels is ready to pop a big return.
7. Stay relatively penalty-free: Well done last week in cutting the penalties to four after leading the league in penalty yards through the first five games. Zimmer is continuing to emphasize fewer penalties.
The pick—Vikings stay on a roll:
I think the Vikings defensive line and some timely blitzes will cause a couple turnovers and plenty of sacks to turn this game in Minnesota’s favor as was the case in the sweep over the Lions last year. I expect to see a big rushing day for Cook which will set up the play action game for some long pass plays. The Vikings tight ends are without a touchdown reception this season and I think they reach the end zone this week. I am concerned about the offensive line if Riley Reiff and Josh Kline are still out but Rashod Hill and Dakota Dozier filled in adequately last week against a tough Philly D-line so the Vikings will need similar strong relief duty if necessary.
The Lions are an improved team but I think the short week after a difficult Monday night loss is hard to overcome, along with a surging Vikings team led by a quarterback with renewed confidence who has memories of an excellent performance at Ford Field last December when he completed 21 of 28 for 253 yards and 3 TDs with no interceptions. I’ve got the Vikings winning their third straight—26-17.
Around the NFL Observations:
1.The murderer’s row road schedule in the second half of the season looks a little less daunting for the Vikings with the recent struggles of Kansas City, Dallas and the Chargers. As long as Russell Wilson is quarterbacking, Seattle is still no bargain for the Monday night matchup on December 2. But as Vikings Hall of Fame Coach Bud Grant always said, “It’s not who you play but when you play them.” In other words, the Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers, all playoff teams last season, may have their act back together when the Vikings see them or they could have a bunch of star players injured.
2, Speaking of Russell Wilson, he has overtaken Patrick Mahomes in the early season MVP race with his sensational play. Wilson leads the NFL with a phenomenal 124.7 passer rating that if sustained through the season would break Aaron Rodgers’ league record 122.5 in 2011. Wilson’s high rating is on the strength of a 72.5% completion rate, 14 touchdown passes and no interceptions. All of those numbers are on pace for career bests along with his 1,704 passing yards stretched out over the season. The two-time Super Bowl quarterback and six-time Pro Bowler is having his best season in leading Seattle to a 5-1 start.
With all his success as a sure-fire future Hall of Famer, the undersized Wilson at 5-11 has paved the way for smaller QBs such as Baker Mayfield (6-1) and Kyler Murray (5-10) to be drafted first overall the past two years. And how ironic that Wilson has never missed a start in his career after falling to the third round in the 2012 draft due to his stature while the first pick in that draft—Andrew Luck, a prototype QB at 6-4, 240 pounds—was forced to retire this year due to his many injuries.
Jeff Diamond was the NFL Executive of the Year in 1998 after the Vikings' 15-1 season. He also is former president of the Tennessee Titans. He does sports/business consulting, media and speaking work including corporate and college speaking on Negotiation, Management, Leadership and Sports Business--contact him at diamondj4@comcast.net
