The countdown to Super Bowl LVI is officially here, as the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals will meet up to crown this year’s NFL champion.
The Rams opened as 4-point favorites and the line has hovered right around that since. Sunday, February 13 at SoFi Stadium in L.A. will be the date and setting for the biggest event on our sports calendar and BetQL is your one-stop shop for all Rams-Bengals analytics, projections and best bets for the Big Game.
BetQL’s full-game projection, projected win percentages, team matchup grades, player prop values, line movement data and much more are live on the game page, which also dynamically lists live public/sharp and line movement data.
Of course, the bread and butter of BetQL’s platform are the proprietary model’s best bets (⭐ bets don’t have much value while ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ bets have a ton of value compared to consensus sportsbook odds).
There are a number of edges that the data is currently pointing to, some of which are revealed below.
Rams-Bengals Betting Trends To Know
6. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have gone 9-1 ATS after a game in which they controlled the ball for 34+ minutes and gained 24+ first downs. Los Angeles controlled the ball for 35:39 in their NFC Championship win over the San Francisco 49ers and picked up 25 first downs in the process. Therefore, this trend suggests that the Rams (-4) are the best bet since Los Angeles has gone 9-1 ATS after they dominated the time of possession.
5. The Bengals have gone 9-2 SU (+10.3 units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. By now, we know that Joe Burrow and this Cincinnati team are a resilient, tough bunch. However, when you consider that they won nine of their 11 games against teams with winning records this season, it takes their success to the next level. If you bet $100 on each of those, you’d be up $1,030 right now.
4. The Bengals were 7-1 SU when they rushed for 100+ yards this season. Joe Mixon and Semaje Perine are very important to Cincinnati’s success, as this trend proves. Not only are they crucial in the passing game, but the Bengals have won seven of the eight games that they surpassed the century mark in. Cincinnati rushed for 116 yards in the AFC Championship, so they’ll likely be looking to establish the run.
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3. The Bengals were an undefeated 5-0 SU when allowing less than 3.0 sacks this season. One of the major question marks in this game will be how the Bengals’ offensive line prevents Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Los Angeles’ star-studded defense from getting to Burrow. The Titans sacked Burrow nine times a few weeks ago, so whoever wins this battle could very well win the game. Cincinnati has allowed a league-worst 103 sacks since the 2020 season and the Rams have 103 team sacks in that same span, the second-best mark.
2. The Rams were an undefeated 6-0 SU when Matthew Stafford didn’t throw an interception this season. Matthew Stafford has a talented group of receivers to throw to, namely Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr., The Rams quarterback has been efficient and dominant this postseason and didn’t throw an interception in two of the three wins. In all, he’s completed 72% of his passes for six touchdowns, an interception and a 115.6 quarterback rating. If he continues to take care of the football and not turn it over, the Rams have literally never lost this year.
1. The Bengals are a winless 0-14 SU when committing two or more turnovers since last season. Speaking of avoiding turnovers, that’s exactly what the Bengals need to do. As you can see by this trend, Joe Burrow and the dynamic skill position players need to take care of the ball and avoid careless turnovers. Cincinnati has not won a single time when turning the ball over two or more times since the start of last season.
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BetQL’s editorial team weighed in with their favorite bets for the Big Game:
Dan Karpuc: Rams -210 ML
While I love the Bengals’ story, it’s hard for me to look past a unit that Cincinnati won’t have an answer for: Los Angeles’ defensive front. Since the Titans racked up nine sacks against this unit a few weeks ago, I see Aaron Donald and Von Miller making Burrow’s life uncomfortable all game long. I also found an awesome trend that’s impossible to ignore. Over the last two seasons, the Bengals are 0-14 SU when turning the ball over two or more times. When they haven’t taken care of the football, they haven’t won… simple as that. While Burrow has shown an uncanny ability to perform under pressure, I see this Rams front forcing him into some throws he doesn’t want to make. Overall, I see that winless streak continuing while Matthew Stafford and the Rams capitalize to earn the Lombardi Trophy.
Nick Ashooh: Bengals +170 ML
Look, we can dig around and find all kinds of betting trends for the Super Bowl, and find a reason to lean either way. “The Rams’ pass rush.” Well, Joe Burrow already overcame nine sacks against the Titans. “Sean McVay looked lost his last Super Bowl.” Well, he’s clearly a smarter coach now, and has a better quarterback this time around. In the end, I look at the team that’s overcome more, has far less pressure, and continues to show nothing phases them this year. It’s not always the best team that wins (see: Eli Manning’s Giants…twice). Sometimes, it’s just the team playing the best football with a confidence that can’t be measured with any stats or trends. Give me Joe Cool and the Bengals finishing off their unbelievable season with a Super Bowl win.
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Lucy Burdge: Bengals +170 ML
I think the Bengals can pull off what was unthinkable earlier this season when they were a Super Bowl super-longshot. The team seems comfortable in this huge spot and everyone is talking about Joe Burrow’s confidence, which is undeniable. They’ve shown in this playoff run that they don’t give up and they have the stamina to mentally stay in a game if they fall behind. So I really believe in the Bengals and I think they can bring a Super Bowl win back to Cincinnati.
Brad Pinkerton: Bengals +4.5
While I'm not quite as confident as my colleagues in Cincinnati continuing their Cinderella story with a Super Bowl win, I'm always confident in them covering as underdogs. Did you know the Bengals were 8-3 ATS as underdogs this season? Oh, you did? Well, did you also know the Bengals were 8-2 ATS away from Cincinnati this season, and were 6-1 as road 'dogs? You knew that too? Then you also know that they have covered in seven straight games overall, and that picking against Joe Burrow and Co. in this situation is downright irresponsible.
Matt Horner: Under 48.5
I really dislike this head coaching matchup because I think both of these guys are overrated. McVay more so than Taylor, because at least Taylor’s team has pulled off a massive upset run to get here. Either way, the reason why I like the under is because of how conservative these two coaches tend to be. They absolutely love kicking field goals, even when they probably shouldn't, and don't take many chances on 4th downs. Not to mention how terrible their red-zone offenses have been recently which has prompted them to kick the field goals. Ugh. I don't have a side for the game as of right now, but I lean Rams. They have the better offense, defense, and special teams unit as a whole, and this will easily be the best defense the Bengals have seen. LA's pass rush against that horrible offensive line of Cincinnati is a complete mismatch. However, Burrow has magic in him apparently, so it's difficult to bet. Give me the under.
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Rams-Bengals BetQL Model Trends
The BetQL Model has gone 27-17 (61.4%, +$759 on $100 bets) on Rams O/U bets and 27-21 (56.3%, +$352 on $100 bets) on Bengals O/U bets all-time. As a whole, the model has performed well on its most valuable O/U bets, hitting 57.1% of its 4-star and 5-star bets for a total return of $1,782. That’s the kind of consistent performance that you get access to as a BetQL subscriber. Overall, the over has gone 10-9-1 in Rams games and the under has gone 12-8 in Bengals games, which makes this a difficult bet to make if you tend to look at season-specific trends (and don’t have a BetQL subscription).
The model has also historically crushed 1H ML bets in Stafford’s starts, going 27-12 (69.2%, +$500 on $100 bets). This season, the Rams averaged 13.3 first-half points per game while the Bengals averaged 12.6. Further, Los Angeles allowed an everage of 9.4 first-half points while Cincinnati surrendered 12.4. The model is projecting a 3-star value; is it the Rams or Bengals?
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BetQL is listing this as a five-star value, which is reasonable, given the prolific talent on both offensive rosters. This season, the Rams averaged 13.3 first-half points per game while the Bengals averaged 12.6, so it’s very possible that both squads get off to a hot start before eventually making some defensive halftime adjustments.
The BetQL Model has gone 27-17 (61.4%, +$759 on $100 bets) on Rams full-game O/U bets and 27-21 (56.3%, +$352 on $100 bets) on Bengals O/U bets all-time. Overall, the over has gone 10-9-1 in Rams games and the under has gone 12-8 in Bengals games, which makes this a difficult full-game bet to make without our model. Luckily for you, we identified an edge!
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Player Prop Value: J’Marr Chase Over 79.5 Receiving Yards
As star Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase showed back on January 2 against the Chiefs (when he caught 11 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns), absolutely no one can defend him. Double coverages can’t stop him, nor can perfect man coverage. Since their days at LSU, when Burrow and Chase are clicking, they’ll put on a show, especially on the big stage. So far in the playoffs, Chase has caught 20 of 27 targets for 279 yards and a touchdown and has clearly been Burrow’s No. 1 option.
Sure, a matchup against arguably the best cornerback in the NFL Jalen Ramsey is scary, but Mike Evans surpassed the 100-yard mark against this Rams defense last week, joining seven other wideouts to pass the century mark against Los Angeles this season. It’s reasonable to expect that Cincinnati will move him around and likely prevent Ramsey from shadowing him on every single snap. BetQL is projecting Chase to catch six passes for 110 yards and a touchdown in this matchup.
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