Oil prices are climbing back toward $100 per barrel on Thursday, while stock markets worldwide slow following their big gains from the day before.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% as the United States, Iran and Israel disagreed on the details of their two-week ceasefire, whose announcement had sent markets flying in optimism on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 40 points, or 0.1%, as of 10 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.2% lower.
The oil market was jumpier, and the price for a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude oil climbed 6.8% to $100.79. It rose after semiofficial news agencies in Iran suggested forces have mined the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that has been at the center of President Donald Trump’s demands of Iran. Blockages there have kept oil and natural gas stuck in the Persian Gulf, away from customers worldwide.
"I wish I could tell you the price at the pump would go down immediately," CBS News Business Analyst Jill Schlesinger noted. "That's not going to happen. It's going to take a couple of weeks to actually see gas prices come down and again, predicated on the fact that nothing flares up again in the days ahead. But what we do know is, as we say in the biz, we see prices at the pump, they go up by an elevator, they go down by the stairs."
Brent crude, the international standard, rose 3.7% to $98.24 per barrel. It’s well below the $119 level that it briefly reached when worries about the war reached their height, but it’s still well above its roughly $70 level from before the war.
"$30 a barrel higher now than before the war means we are not likely to get back to $3 a gallon nationally anytime soon," says Schlesinger.
Given how far apart the United States and Iran seem to be in their demands, upward pressure on oil prices may be “here to stay for a while” according to strategists at Macquarie led by Thierry Wizman. Risks remain for renewed fighting, which could cause customers worldwide to hoard whatever oil supplies they do get. That could itself keep oil off the market, much like actual fighting targeting pipelines or oil tankers.
On Wall Street, Simply Good Foods tumbled 15.1% after the company behind the Quest and Atkins brands reported a worse drop in revenue than analysts expected. CEO Joe Scalzo called the results unsatisfactory and said the company is making immediate changes to turn around its performance.
Constellation Brands rallied 5.3% for one of the market's bigger gains after reporting stronger results for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The company, which sells Modelo beer and Robert Mondavi wines, said it saw encouraging trends heading into its new fiscal year. But given “limited near-term visibility,” it pulled its financial forecasts for the following fiscal year.
A suite of mixed reports on the U.S. economy also helped to keep Wall Street in check. One said an underlying measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve considers important was slightly hotter in February than economists expected. It decelerated before the war with Iran began, but not by as much as economists expected.
"For now people continue to spend, but the more they see those high prices at the pump, they get freaked out about everything else in the economy," Schlesinger explains. "They may pull back. Right now economists say if everything holds, ceasefire holds, we're still going to grow here in the United States. Maybe not quite as much as we were expected to before the war, but growth is good and we like to hear that."
A separate report said that more U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week than economists expected. The number was not very high compared with history, but it could indicate an acceleration in layoffs.
Treasury yields swiveled up and down in the bond market following the reports before ticking higher.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.31% from 4.29% late Wednesday. Its leap from 3.97% before the war began has sent rates up for mortgages and other kinds of loans going to U.S. households and businesses.
If oil prices stay high and keep upward pressure on inflation, the Federal Reserve would have difficulty resuming its cuts to interest rates to help the slowing economy, even if the job market weakens. A growing number of Fed officials seem to be considering the possibility of a hike in rates, according to minutes of their latest meeting released on Wednesday.
In stock markets abroad, South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.6%, and Germany’s DAX lost 1.4% for two of the world’s biggest moves.
