It seems odd that we'd be talking about droughts with all the rain we've had in April. Especially with a very rainy weekend on tap.
However, the National Weather Service is predicting more dry weather for the summer, dry enough that there are more drought concerns in parts of Minnesota.
Meteorologist Melissa Dye of the National Weather Service says the wet spring has lessened drought conditions for the moment, but she also said to expect dry conditions throughout the summer.
“Things do look like they may be trending towards a drier scenario as we get into later spring and early summer,” says Dye. “Because we did have such an impactful drought from last summer, even though we have gotten a lot of rain and we're doing good for now, it wouldn't take much to turn the tables back the other way. So there is the possibility for some drought development across southern Minnesota.”
Currently, the U.S. Drought Monitor has just a small area of southern and southwestern Minnesota, along with a small area north near the Mississippi River headwaters, listed as “abnormally dry”. That is the lowest value they place on an area affected by drought. That is a significant improvement from where a lot of Minnesota was last summer.
The U.S. Drought Monitor Map released April 28th showing small pockets of Minnesota that are still abnormally dry.(Graphic via droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
Dye says April rains have helped a great deal.
As for the temperature outlook for this summer, don’t let the cool spring fool you. While Dye says the outlook is still a bit “up in the air”, conditions favor warm weather once we get through May.
“The May temperature outlook still has us favored for maybe a slightly below normal pattern to continue, but the three month outlook could go either way,” Dye tells WCCO’s Susie Jones. “We've got equal chances of either above or below normal. But I will say that the majority of the country looks to be favoring above normal, so we'll just kind of have to wait and see.”
The National Weather Service also says that this cool spring, with temperatures far below average through April, is mostly due to La Nina, an atmospheric condition in the tropical Pacific Ocean that generally leads to cooler than normal weather in Minnesota.
There is about a 55% chance of La Nina continuing into the summer which would moderate warm weather somewhat.
