Minnesota senator Tina Smith's quest for reelection continues to receive a strong challenge from Republican Jason Lewis ahead of the November 3rd7 election.
According to one poll released by FiveThirtyEight on October 21, Sen. Smith held just a slight advantage over Lewis as Republicans aim to flip the seat. Other polls seem to indicate Smith's lead is shrinking ahead of the election.
Minnesota State University Mankato associate professor of political science, Dr. Fred Slocum, believes that Jason Lewis' strength comes from his alignment with President Donald Trump.
"If Lewis win, it will be a significant upset," Dr. Slocum said. "Lewis has branded himself as a Trump Republican and has echoed Trump's bombastic style and inflammatory rhetoric. So, I think that certainly appeals to the Trump supporting portion of the Republican electorate, which is probably most of the party at this point."
For Lewis to defeat Smith, Slocum believes the former U.S. Representative has to take away a significant amount of votes from counties surrounding the Twin Cities.
"I don't think he can win the state with Trump Republicans only," Slocum said. "I don't think it's a formula that Lewis can likely expand his appeal."
In 2018 Sen. Smith defeated GOP-challenger Karin Housley with 53 percent of the vote compared to Housley's 42.4 percent. The results present several key areas where Jason Lewis will look to secure votes and possibly flip others.
"A lopsided proportion of his votes will likely come from rural Minnesota particularly in the western part of the state" Slocum said. "Lewis may have a majority, but possibly not a large majority in the southern part of the state."
So far, Minnesota's senate race has drawn in just over $1.7 million from outside contributors. That's compared to the outside contributions in a senate face shaping up just to the south of Minnesota.
Iowa's senate race is nearing $150 million in outside contributions. The scripts are flipped in Iowa's race as Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield looks defeat incumbent Republican Joni Ernst.
"Interest groups contributing to campaigns like to donate to candidates they perceive as likely winners because what they're after in making donations, is access to elected officials and to get the ear of those officials," said Slocum.
Almost 1.2 million ballots have been accepted in Minnesota according to the Minnesota Secretary of State's office.
"Democrats seem much more likely to vote early by mail and absentee ballot," Slocum said. "This may leave the election day electorate Republican."
