It looks like we're in for a busy hurricane season this year, with forecasters predicting the highest number of hurricanes ever and a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall.
Colorado State University's annual hurricane forecast was released this week, predicting a total of 23 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Of those, researchers predict 11 storms will become hurricanes and five will reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
That's the most ever projected by CSU in April. On average, a typical season has 14 tropical storms with seven developing into hurricanes.
As for why experts are predicting so many hurricanes this year, they say rising water temperatures are a primary factor "since a hurricane's fuel source is warm ocean water."
"Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season," CSU said in a statement. "A warmer-than-normal tropical North Atlantic Ocean is known to typically create conditions more favorable for hurricane formation and intensification."
The prior highest April forecast was for nine hurricanes, which has been called for several times since the university began issuing April forecasts in 1995. The team says the 2024 hurricane season is so far exhibiting characteristics similar to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010 and 2020.
Forecasters anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean:
• 62% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
• 34% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
• 42% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
• 66% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)
The forecast predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 170% of the average season from 1991–2020. By comparison, 2023's hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season. The most significant hurricane of the 2023 season was Hurricane Idalia, which made landfall at Category 3 intensity in the Big Bend region of Florida, causing $3.6 billion in damage and resulting in eight deaths.
The report notes that considerable changes can occur in the atmosphere-ocean between now and the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October. The research team will continue to monitor conditions and issue forecast updates on June 11, July 9 and August 6.