Summer road trips might need a re-think if gas prices hover at $4.80 per gallon through the season as predicted this week by gas savings platform GasBuddy. That prediction is based on the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a significant portion of the summer.
Much of the world’s oil is transported via the strait, located off the Iranian coast. Since President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. joined Israel to attack Iran earlier this year, a blockade at the strait has contributed to rising gas prices around the globe.
By late March, national average gas prices had soared to more than $4 per gallon and they have remained higher than $4 for more than a month. As of Thursday, they were close to $4.60 per gallon, according to AAA.
“GasBuddy forecasts the national average will reach $4.48 per gallon on Memorial Day, up sharply from $3.14 per gallon a year ago, and average $4.80 per gallon over the summer from Memorial Day through Labor Day, with the possibility of all-time record highs if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a significant portion of the summer,” said a Wednesday announcement from GasBuddy about its 2026 Summer Travel Survey results.
Trump said this week that negotiations with Iran are in their final stages, Fox News reported Thursday. It also reported that oil prices dropped 6% following that announcement from the president. Reuters reported this week that tankers left the strait this week with 6 billion barrels of crude oil, while Bloomberg reported that Iran was in talks with Oman over a permanent Strait of Hormuz toll system.
“This is the most volatile summer at the pump in years, and the Strait of Hormuz closure is at the center of it,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “Americans are going to pay billions more to get where they’re going this summer, and even after the strait reopens, it could take a year or more for prices to fully recover. Some states are already suspending gas taxes to ease the pain, and federal discussions are underway. Every bit of relief matters. Use every tool you have, including GasBuddy, to find the lowest price near you.”
De Hann told the New York Post that we will likely see “record levels later this summer.”
AAA previously predicted that there would be record-breaking traffic on Memorial Day despite the high prices at the pump, though De Haan said that the price pressure could make some in the U.S. re-think their travel plans. GasBuddy said that “American road trip culture is showing resilience,” amid the gas price spikes, with more than half (56%) planning to drive more than two hours this summer.
That’s a considerable number of travelers, but it’s down from 69% last year. According to GasBuddy, that marks a “meaningful shift reflecting the financial strain on travelers.”
In fact, GasBuddy said cost is now the dominant travel consideration, cited by 53% of respondents as a top priority. It said 36% of respondents reported that costs are causing them to take fewer road trips and 67% said gas prices are directly impacting their travel plans.
If negotiations with Iran fall through and the strait remains closed for a significant portion of the summer, GasBuddy predicts that prices at U.S. pumps could reach $5 per gallon. It noted that “refinery dynamics, the approaching Atlantic hurricane season, OPEC production, and declining global inventories add further upward pressure,” to gas prices.
As for when we could possibly see gas fall to under $3 per gallon, GasBuddy said we might have to wait for more than a year to get that type of relief at the pump. However, De Haan expressed hope for prices to come down at least a bit in the near future in an X post this week.
“With oil's large selloff and most states that cycle having done so, I believe we may see the national average start to drop tomorrow,” he said Wednesday.
