On Saturday, the U.S. State Department updated a “Do Not Travel” warning for Lebanon that reflected the “ordered departure of non-mission-employed eligible family members (EFMs)” and authorized departure for others.
This update comes on the heels of Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah confirming the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, by Israeli forces. For nearly a year, the U.S. has been supporting Israel as war rages in the Middle East – how might this latest development impact what comes next?
As of Saturday, CNN reported that the Israel Defense Forces were preparing for possible ground operations in Lebanon, citing a spokesperson who spoke to CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. This spokesperson said ground operations would be carried out only if required. IDF spokesperson Peter Lerner also said Saturday that IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi spoke with reserve forces earlier in the week about that option.
“Due to the increased volatility following airstrikes within Beirut and the volatile and unpredictable security situation throughout Lebanon, the U.S. Embassy urges U.S. citizens to depart Lebanon while commercial options still remain available,” said the state department’s Saturday warning. Tens of thousands of Americans live in Lebanon, according to CBS News military analyst Jeff McCausland.
Here’s some more background on how things got to this point.
Last October, Hamas’ large-scale terrorist attack on Israel kicked off this most recent war in the region. Hezbollah and the Houthis also attacked soon after.
“Iran supports both these in terms of manpower, material, weaponry, etc. so they are certainly encouraged by Iran,” said McCausland of Hamas and Hezbollah in an interview with Audacy station KRLD earlier this week.
McCausland noted that Israel has accomplished many of its objectives regarding Hamas in Gaza and has since turned its sights on Hezbollah. Earlier this month, Audacy reported on deadly pager attacks in Lebanon that killed members of the group.
“It seems to me [what] the Israelis are trying to execute is so-called escalate to de-escalate,” McCausland explained. “In other words, they want to put so much pressure on Hezbollah that they back down on these continuous missile drone artillery strikes that they have been employing ever since the war in Gaza began almost a year ago, back on the 8th of October.”
In that interview Tuesday, McCausland predicted that an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon might be imminent. That was before Nasrallah’s death.
“Hassan Nasrallah was a terrorist with American blood on his hands. Across decades, his leadership of Hezbollah destabilized the Middle East and led to the killing of countless innocent people in Lebanon, Israel, Syria, and around the world,” said President Joe Biden in a Saturday statement. “Today, Hezbollah’s victims have a measure of justice.”
Lerner of the IDF said that Nasrallah was building a large arsenal of weapons, including 200,000 rockets, for the purpose of going to war with Israel. He also said Israel has been conducting surveillance of Hezbollah since 2006.
In his Saturday statement, Biden said he has an “unwavering commitment to the security of Israel,” and that the U.S. will continue to support Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis.
CNN reported that the primary goal of the Israeli military with regard to Hezbollah as of Saturday is to restore safety for 60,000 Israelis who have been evacuated from their homes in northern Israel. These Israelis, and many people in Lebanon, had to evacuate when Hezbollah began firing at Israel last year.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said Friday that the U.S. was not involved in Israel’s operations in Beirut.
“We had no advance warning. My call with Minister [Yoav] Gallant took place while Israel's operation was already underway,” he said, later adding that “diplomacy continues to be the best way forward,” and that returning displaced Israelis and Lebanese citizens is a priority.
In a statement from later that day, the U.S. Department of Defense said: “Secretary Austin stressed that the United States is determined to prevent Iran and Iranian-backed partners and proxies from exploiting the situation or expanding the conflict. The Secretary made it clear that the United States remains postured to protect U.S. forces and facilities in the region and committed to the defense of Israel.”
Speaking to reporters Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said “the path to diplomacy may seem difficult to see at this moment, but it is there, and in our judgment it is necessary,” and stressed the need for a ceasefire in the region. However, he also said that the U.S. will defend its people if any Americans are targeted in attacks.
Andrea Mitchell with NBC News noted that a senior Israeli official said their intel revealed a plan to encircle Israel and eliminate it by 2040 in an explanation of Israel’s continued efforts in Lebanon. She asked if plans for a potential ground attack in Lebanon were expected to impact U.S.
policy in the region.
“It is a legitimate and important objective for Israel to, again, create an environment in which people can get back to their homes,” said Blinken. He said the U.S. believes a 21-day ceasefire would be the best way to achieve that.
McCausland said Tuesday that the possibility of a ceasefire in the region, however, was wearing thin.
“We see in the last few weeks the likelihood of a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip continuing to dim, largely because on the Israeli side, Mr. [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s insistence that Israel maintain military forces in a small strip of land on the southern end of Gaza,” he explained. As this prospect dims, the likelihood of more conflict increases.
The U.S. had about 40,000 troops in the region Tuesday, with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier battle group offshore, McCausland said. A second carrier battle group, the Truman, was also heading in that direction.
Still, Blinken maintained that a road to ceasefire is accessible.
“The question is one about interests and what is in the interests of the respective parties and getting them to act on those – on those interests,” he said. The Secretary of State also noted that the region has been on the brink of wider war for the better part of a year and diplomacy has held it back.