For former President Donald Trump, the stakes tied to winning the election next week are a bit higher than usual. Multiple experts agree that the election will likely decide the fate of four criminal cases he’s currently facing – and whether he faces jail time.
Those cases include the “hush money” case in New York related to a payment to adult film star Stormy to cover up an alleged affair, a Georgia election interference case, a federal case about mishandled classified documents and a federal case related to election interference and the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021.
“Perhaps no candidate in U.S. history has faced such stark personal stakes on Election Day,” said CBS News of the GOP candidate.
According to USA Today, all charges against Trump could be dropped or postponed for the duration of his four-year term if he wins the election against Democrat nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.
“If Trump were not a candidate for president, his legal trouble would be unavoidable,” said the outlet. Already, a jury found him guilty of all 34 counts in the hush money case and he is set to be sentenced on Nov. 26, after the election but before the new president elect takes office.
However, if Trump were elected, action in that case and the Georgia election interference case would likely be postponed, USA Today added. It noted that Trump has also said he plans to fire Special Counsel Jack Smith, who brought the Capitol riot charges against him and that the former could try to pardon himself. This summer, Trump also scored a win when the conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court (including three justices he appointed himself) ruled that presidential immunity may apply to that case.
“Donald Trump has several legal tactics to try to stay out of state prison, but his best chance of success turns on the outcome of the presidential election,” said CNN.
Karen Friedman Agnifilo, a former top official at the Manhattan district attorney’s office and a CNN legal analyst said it would basically work as a “get out of jail free card,” especially in the hush money case.
If winning the election would help tidy up Trump’s legal problems, what will things look like if he loses?
“He will be facing serious legal jeopardy if he loses. He knows that,” says Bennett Gershman, a professor of constitutional law at Pace Law School who served for a decade as a New York prosecutor, as quoted by Intelligencer. “It’s probably on his mind every day. He faces four very, very serious cases, in one of which he has already been convicted as a felon. The others are easily convictable.”
Last September, Trump said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” that he wasn’t worried about going to prison.
“I don’t even think about it,” he said. “I’m built a little differently I guess, because I have had people come up to me and say, ‘How do you do it, sir? How do you do it?’ I don’t even think about it.”
However, that same month a report in Rolling Stone said that Trump came to his advisors with concerns that he would have to wear “one of those jumpsuits” if he does get jail time.
USA Today noted that trials are on the horizon for three of the four criminal cases and that sentencing in the hush money case could be swift if he loses, even though Trump’s team attempts to postpone it. That has been their main legal strategy so far ahead of the election and they have successfully postponed the hush money sentencing twice so far.
If Harris wins, Agnifilo thinks sentencing will go forward and that it will include prison time. Still, experts have been skeptical about whether Trump will actually ever spend time in a jail cell.
Eric Holder, who served as attorney general under former President Barack Obama, said last fall in an MSNBC interview that it would be unlikely to see a major party candidate sentenced to prison time. There are also logistical challenges associated with imprisoning a former president, as they are entitled to Secret Service protection. This year, Secret Service has responded to two assassination attempts targeting Trump.