Winter prediction time! Well, sort of. While the Farmer’s Almanac may try and predict our winter, and ever NOAA jumps into the fray with their predictions, WCCO’s own Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas says don’t hold your breath.
Douglas takes us through a few weather headlines, and shares some really good news about what might be our last really warm weekend for a long time.
Winter Temperature Outlook
"Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle."
That’s the prediction from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (or NOAA). Minnesota is right in the middle of the area where they’re saying colder than normal weather will dominate this winter.
“Any time you look out, three, four months, there's some science involved in determining the trends, but it's still a little more of a horoscope than it is a hard and fast prediction,” explains Douglas. “It's interesting. I'm interested in the same way that I am looking at the Farmer's Almanac forecast. It's like, okay, what goofy things are they saying this year? But I just can't get too bent out of shape when it comes to a three to four to five month forecast.”
And yes, the Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a glacier-filled winter for the Upper Midwest. Get the parkas out.
La Nina….Again
There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February). This would be the third consecutive winter for La Niña, something that doesn’t happen all that often, the third time since 1950 there have been three straight.
We do have a La Niña pattern again, a cool phase of the Pacific, although that is weakening,” Douglas explained to WCCO’s Vineeta Sawkar on the WCCO Morning News. “We've had a chilly Pacific, and there is a correlation between chilly water in the equatorial Pacific and colder than average winters here in Minnesota.”
The Drought Will Roll On
While NOAA is predicting colder temperatures, they’re not predicting wetter. And that is not good news.
“NOAA is predicting colder from Seattle to the Twin Cities,” Douglas says. “Wetter for Chicago and the Great Lakes, but not here. Which is unfortunate with the drought deepening.”
There is a decent chance of some rain Sunday night into Monday according to Douglas, but nowhere near enough to dent our drought in the Twin Cities.
The U.S. Drought Monitor currently has most of Hennepin County and to the southwest in Extreme Drought. The rest of central Minnesota is in either Severe or Moderate Drought. And the vast majority of Minnesota is at least Abnormally Dry.
U.S. Drought Monitor lists most of Minnesota in a drought, with portions of center-southwest Minnesota in Extreme Drought (in Red).(Photo Courtesy of U.S. Drought Monitor / NOAA)
Since January, the Twin Cities are over nine inches below normal precipitation, and just since the start of September we’re down over four inches, which is the driest fall on record. That will be impossible to make up before the ground freezes.
It’s not just Minnesota either. 82.23% of the lower 48 states are under at least abnormally dry conditions.
Twin Cities Forecast
Weather perfection for the weekend says Douglas.
“Mid 60s today (Friday), the average high now is about 56,” he says. “Not that our weather is ever average, but we're going to be almost 20 degrees above average tomorrow and Sunday, low to mid-70s both days. I think tomorrow the nicer day to go for a walk, go for a bike ride, walk the dog. It's going to feel like a typical day in early May. And then Sunday the winds pick up, the clouds will increase a little bit. Could be a quick jolt of rain, that would be nice, Sunday night into Monday, and then it cools off into the 50s by the middle of next week. But back into the low-60s again by the end of next week.”
Douglas adds that he sees nothing too cold in the immediate forecast.
“No polar air in sight. We have a couple more weeks, I think, before we need to put stakes in the driveway and worry about snow tires if you do that kind of thing.”
Friday: High of 64 with sunny, pleasant weather.
Saturday: High 71, low 45. The return of summer!
Sunday: High 72, low 59. Windy and warm with showers late.
Monday: High 64, low 62. Seasonably warm, blustery with a passing shower.
Tuesday: High 54, low 42. More normal temps, couple of light showers.
