Welcome to Audacy Sports' countdown of the top-32 quarterbacks for the 2021 season.
Before we get to our countdown, here are a few notes of what went into creating this list:
1.) There was a heavy focus on how these quarterbacks performed in the last two seasons, and trying to form a projection of what that will mean for 2021. How Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, for example, may have played in 2009 isn't especially relevant here.
2.) This isn't just a ranking of the top 32 quarterbacks likely to be Week 1 starters. Not every team has a quarterback on this countdown. However, Justin Fields or Mac Jones (just examples) are much more likely to play at some point in 2021 than Marcus Mariota or Mitchell Trubisky, and that was factored in.
3.) Given his unresolved legal issues and uncertain future with the Houston Texans, Deshaun Watson was altogether left off of this year's countdown. He would have been somewhere in the top-five, but there's a very real possibility that he doesn't play at all this season.
With all that acknowledged, here are the top-32 quarterbacks ahead of the 2021 season:
32.) Andy Dalton - Chicago Bears
Andy Dalton
Kamil Krzaczynski - USA TODAY Sports
Dalton will eventually be usurped by Justin Fields, though Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace probably have a variety of reasons to bring their first round pick along slowly. From here, it wouldn't be a surprise if Dalton starts half or more of the 2021 season. He's not a long-term answer at quarterback, but if second round pick Teven Jenkins can prove to be an answer at left tackle, it's not out of the question that Dalton could have the Bears in the playoff race in 2021.
31.) Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa
Timothy T. Ludwig - Getty Images
Not only did Tagovailoa get outplayed by Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in his rookie season, but probably also by his former Alabama teammate Jalen Hurts. The Dolphins have a roster capable of making a deep postseason run, but they need Tagovailoa to take a drastic step forward in 2021, after Pro Football Focus graded him as the 31st quarterback in his rookie season. From a character perspective, Tagovailoa seems off the charts, but if his play doesn't begin to catch up with that, the Dolphins may find themselves looking for his successor next offseason.
30.) Drew Lock - Denver Broncos
Drew Lock
Jared C. Tilton - Getty Images
Lock was reckless with the football in his second NFL season, throwing 15 interceptions (tied for the league lead) and fumbling the ball eight times. Because of that, he'll have to beat out Teddy Bridgewater to remain Denver's starter in 2021. If he can do that, he's seemingly set up for success with Tim Patrick, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant among the weapons at his disposal in the Broncos offense.
29.) Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts
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Hurts showed enough in four starts last year to intrigue you, but not enough for you to be sure that he'll be a good starting NFL quarterback. While still raw as a passer, Hurts did throw for 338 yards and three touchdowns in a shootout loss in Arizona against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals last December. He also rushed for more than 5.5 yards per-carry in 2020. With Carson Wentz gone, 2021 should be about determining whether Hurts can be the long-term starting quarterback for Nick Sirianni and the Eagles.
28.) Sam Darnold - Carolina Panthers
Sam Darnold
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Darnold was drafted into an untenable situation in New York, but he struggled to stay on the field in three seasons with the Jets, and threw more interceptions (11) than touchdowns (nine) in 2020. The Panthers did pick up Darnold's fifth-year option, though this may very well be a one-year audition for Darnold in Carolina. Darnold wasn't set up for success in New York, but with Joe Brady as his offensive coordinator in Carolina, the former No. 3 overall pick in 2018 should thrive in an offense that includes Christian McCaffrey, Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore.
27.) Jared Goff - Detroit Lions
Jared Goff
Junfu Han - USA TODAY Sports
Lions general manager Brad Holmes said earlier this month that he doesn't believe that Goff is simply a bridge quarterback brought back as part of the deal for Matthew Stafford. No longer playing under Sean McVay, Goff has his work cut out in convincing the rest of the league that the Lions won't be using a top-five pick on a quarterback in the 2022 NFL Draft.
26.) Ryan Fitzpatrick - Washington Football Team
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Geoff Burke - USA TODAY Sports
The Miami Dolphins went 4-3 in games that Fitzpatrick started a year ago, and there were multiple occasions that he came on in relief of Tagovailoa in 2020. Now in Washington, Fitzpatrick won't have to look over his shoulder for a first round pick. Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen remain in the picture, but Fitzpatrick figures to start for the defending NFC East champions, perhaps for the entirety of the 2021 season.
25.) Daniel Jones - New York Giants
Daniel Jones
Rob Carr - Getty Images
The Giants added Kenny Golladay in free agency, used their first round pick on Kadarius Toney and will get Saquon Barkley back after he tore his right ACL early in the 2020 season. Quite simply, with the chance that Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson are all available next offseason, Year 3 is make-or-break season for Jones. The former No. 6 overall pick in 2019 will need to make significant strides in protecting the football in 2021, after leading the league in fumbles in each of his first two seasons.
24.) Cam Newton - New England Patriots
Cam Newton
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Newton is difficult to evaluate. Certainly, contracting COVID-19 in October was sub-optimal, as was the talent he had to work with offensively. But the reality is that Newton's arm strength looked greatly deteriorated late in the 2020 season, almost two years after he had surgery on his throwing shoulder. The 2015 NFL MVP is still a tremendous weapon on the ground - rushing for 592 yards and 12 touchdowns last year - but there are legitimate concerns to be had about his potential as a passer at this stage of his career. Last year, Newton was able to fend off Jarrett Stidham even as he struggled, but that won't be the case this year, with first round pick Mac Jones looming.
23.) Taysom Hill - New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill
Matthew Stockman - Getty Images
If it was up to us, Jameis Winston would get the first crack at being Drew Brees' successor. But if it's Hill, Sean Payton will probably make that work, and then some. The Saints went 3-1 in games that Hill started a season ago, with him tossing four touchdowns and completing 72.7% of his passes over that stretch. Hill will have to be much more careful running the ball if he's the starting quarterback, because you can't be a bruiser and a quarterback that starts 16 games a season. But we'd bet on him having success if he's the choice to start in New Orleans.
22.) Zach Wilson - New York Jets
Zach Wilson
Mike Stobe - Getty Images
Wilson used a breakout final season at BYU and an electric Pro Day to catapult himself all the way to the No. 2 pick, with some operating under the belief that he'll be as good or even better than Trevor Lawrence. The Jets won't be a playoff team in 2021, though you like what general manager Joe Douglas is building offensively, with Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker likely to protect Wilson for close to a decade.
21.) Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence
Sam Greenwood - Getty Images
The Jaguars made Lawrence the No. 1 overall pick after a storied career at Clemson, and he immediately has become the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. It goes without saying that the Jaguars aren't a finished product, but Lawrence and head coach Urban Meyer will have Travis Etienne, James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault at their disposal. It's probably too much to expect Lawrence to have the Jaguars in the postseason in 2021, but the star rookie should make what's traditionally been one of the more forgettable NFL teams, well, not that.
20.) Ben Roethlisberger - Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger
Timothy T. Ludwig - Getty Images
The Steelers did go 12-3 in games that Roethlisberger started in 2020, but both a 1-3 record in his final three regular season starts and a postseason loss to the Cleveland Browns left you with a bad taste in your mouth. Roethlisberger averaged 6.3 yards per-pass attempt in 2020, the lowest total over a full season in his career. There's not a question of whether the Steelers can still win some games with the 39-year-old at quarterback, but it's fair to wonder if he's capable of going blow-for-blow with some of the AFC's elite quarterbacks at this stage of his career.
19.) Jimmy Garoppolo - San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo
Abbie Parr - Getty Images
It's a matter of when, not if, Garoppolo is no longer the starter in San Francisco. But given how raw Trey Lance is, Garoppolo will almost certainly be the Week 1 starter. If he's able to stay on the field - and the 49ers as a whole have better luck with injuries in 2021 - it's not hard to imagine Garoppolo leading Kyle Shanahan's team back to the playoffs and becoming an intriguing trade candidate next offseason.
18.) Jameis Winston - New Orleans Saints
Jameis Winston
Chuck Cook - USA TODAY Sports
You can bet on one thing: Winston won't be at 18 next year. If Taysom Hill beats him out as starting quarterback or he turns the ball over at a clip like he did with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he won't be on this list in 2022. But if Sean Payton is able to reign in Winston, this is a player with MVP potential. The first step is for Winston to win the starting job in New Orleans, but Payton's ability to revive Winston's career would be one of the most interesting storylines of the 2021 season.
17.) Kirk Cousins - Minnesota Vikings
Kirk Cousins
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Cousins has limitations, but he's thrown for 91 touchdown passes in three seasons with the Vikings. You could do a lot worse. The Vikings' selection of Kellen Mond in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft suggests they think winning one postseason game with Cousins in the 2019 season may have been their ceiling, and that's perhaps accurate. Still, as long as Cousins has Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen at his disposal, he's going to rack up yards and touchdown passes.
16.) Carson Wentz - Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz
Trevor Ruszkowski - USA TODAY Sports
Make no mistake, Wentz's final season with the Eagles was an unmitigated disaster. There's blame for the team's offensive line, wide receiving corps and former head coach Doug Pederson. But Wentz - who was intercepted 15 times and fumbled 10 more in just 12 games - cannot be absolved. Reunited with former offensive coordinator Frank Reich, you hope that Wentz is able to reset in 2021, no longer chasing the ghost of Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. If he can, the Colts will be Super Bowl contenders in 2021.
15.) Derek Carr - Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr
Ethan Miller - Getty Images
Truth be told, Carr has a case to be higher than this. In fact, Pro Football Focus says that he was the 10th-best quarterback in the NFL a season ago. But the Raiders have three new starters on their offensive line, and lost Nelson Agholor, their top wide receiver from a season ago. Carr figures to remain productive under Jon Gruden, though it may be hard for him to stand out in the sport's most loaded division.
14.) Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan
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Gone is Julio Jones, but Ryan threw for over 4,500 yards in 2020, relying heavily on Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. The Falcons may not be a legitimate contender as a team in 2021, but under new head coach Arthur Smith, Ryan's march towards Canton should continue.
13.) Baker Mayfield - Cleveland Browns
Baker Mayfield
Jason Miller - Getty Images
Mayfield bounced back after a disappointing second season and guided the Browns to their most successful season in at least a generation. Mayfield tossed 26 touchdowns in his first season in Kevin Stefanski's offense, aided by the tremendous one-two punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground. In theory, the Browns should emerge as a Super Bowl contender, as Odell Beckham Jr. returns to the stable of weapons at Mayfield's disposal.
12.) Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow
Bobby Ellis - Getty Images
If not for a torn ACL, Burrow would have challenged Justin Herbert for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Instead, a disastrous offensive line finally caught up to him in late November. The Bengals did sign Riley Reiff, but chose to reunite Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase at the No. 5 pick, rather than adding a potential offensive line stalwart like Penei Sewell. You felt Burrow begin to shift the culture in Cincinnati before his injury last year, and that figures to continue in 2021, assuming the Bengals can keep him healthy.
11.) Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee Titans
Ryan Tannehill
Carmen Mandato - Getty Images
In two seasons with the Titans, Tannehill has 55 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, having thrived alongside Derrick Henry. Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith did leave to become the head coach of the Falcons, while Corey Davis turned a career-best year into a lucrative deal with the Jets. Still, the Titans have become a team that you're confident can go toe-to-toe with pretty much anyone in the league, and Tannehill is a big part of that. Adding Julio Jones into the mix, assuming health, almost doesn't feel fair.
10.) Tom Brady - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady
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What's left to say about Brady at this point? There were trials and tribulations during his first regular season in Tampa Bay, but he ultimately rallied the troops in the postseason and led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl title in his first season in the organization. This may not be peak Brady anymore, but the soon-to-be 44-year-old still has tremendous arm strength and is capable of playing at an elite level even at this advanced stage of his career.
9.) Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott
Harry How - Getty Images
2020 was a lost season for Prescott, who played in just five games before suffering a season-ending compound fracture and dislocation to his right ankle. 2020 may have been a lost season for the Cowboys regardless of Prescott's status because of defensive problems, but the quarterback had thrown for over 450 yards in three consecutive games before his injury. Seemingly healthy and certainly much wealthier, Prescott should have success in his second season under Mike McCarthy. Whether the Cowboys are able to become a legitimate NFC playoff contender is less clear.
8.) Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson
Rob Carr - Getty Images
Jackson is one of the most explosive weapons in NFL history, having rushed for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. That much he's proven. 2021 will be about both Jackson and the Ravens, as a whole, proving that they can hang with the likes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills in games where they're required to throw the ball 30 or more times.
7.) Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford
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We've always been firm believers in Stafford's talents, and are especially excited to see him get a chance to play anywhere but Detroit. Sean McVay - one of the NFL's best offensive minds - seems smitten with Stafford. It wouldn't shock us if Stafford is one of the five-best quarterbacks in the league in his first season with the Rams.
6.) Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
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Herbert is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, having tossed 31 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in his rookie season, while racking up 4,336 passing yards in his first season. You worry a bit when there's a coaching change after a season like that - though it made sense when you looked at the team as a whole - but former Saints quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi should be a good fit with Herbert. At least Drew Brees thinks so.
5.) Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray
Norm Hall - Getty Images
Year 3 of Murray's career is a big one for the organization, head coach Kliff Kingsbury specifically. However, there's no debating Murray's place among the game's most gifted quarterbacks - he's the type of player that could lead your team to a Super Bowl. The former No. 1 overall pick has tossed 26 touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, and added 819 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground in 2020.
4.) Russell Wilson - Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson
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Though we're a bit concerned that Pete Carroll may revert back to not letting Russ cook, Wilson is a future Hall of Famer that is at the height of his powers currently. If the Seahawks aren't able to put a plan together to take advantage of that and make a deep playoff run, perhaps this will be Wilson's final year in Seattle.
3.) Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen
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Allen exploded in his third year in Buffalo, tossing 37 touchdowns, rushing for another eight and even reeling in one in the air. Amazingly, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll didn't get a head coaching job, so much of last year's band that reached the AFC Championship Game is coming back. Allen should cement himself as one of the league's elite quarterbacks in 2021.
2.) Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers
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This ranking on the countdown presumes that one way or another, Rodgers will play in 2021, which perhaps shouldn't be taken for granted. Assuming he does put any issues with the organization to the side for a few months, there's no reason that Rodgers shouldn't continue to thrive in 2021. He's the reigning NFL MVP, and if he continues to play at that type of level, the Packers will be Super Bowl contenders.
1.) Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
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If Rodgers isn't the most talented quarterback in NFL history, Mahomes probably is. Every season that he's been the starting quarterback, the Chiefs have at least reached the AFC Championship Game. He's thrown 114 touchdowns to just 24 picks in three seasons, the most dominant start to a career that a quarterback has ever had. For Mahomes, it's just a matter of trying to challenge Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback of all-time, which is a pretty amazing thing to say about someone that's only a few years into their career.
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