The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in the AFC Wild Card Round on Saturday night in Orchard Park. The winner advances to the AFC Divisional Round of the playoffs next weekend.
Here are my three keys to the game, plus some notes and stats for this matchup at Highmark Stadium:
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1.) Take advantage of a shortened secondary
Patriots starting cornerback Jalen Mills is out for the game as he remains on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. Backup cornerback Shaun Wade is also on the COVID-19 list and won't play.
Safety Kyle Dugger, a very important player in their three-safety scheme, did not play last week and is dealing with a hand injury. The Patriots have elevated two defensive backs from their practice squad.
They are thin at the position.
The Bills have a deep receiving corps, and can spread them out to allow Josh Allen to figure out where his best matchup is.
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2.) Special teams be aware!
The Bills have a better overall team.
They have the better quarterback. They have a better offense. At best for New England, the two defenses cancel each other out.
Even though the Patriots' special teams have struggled at times this year, Buffalo has had their share of problems.
The Bills have had some issues as of late with their punter, Matt Haack, and a consistent punt return game, choosing to use three different people to return.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will look for any advantage he can to try and exploit the Bills, and it very well may be something in the special teams game. A scheme to block a punt? An onside kick?
Whatever it is, the Bills' special teams units, which have been very good and consistent all year - minus the hiccups as of late - need to be buttoned-up and aware.
Mark Konezny - USA TODAY Sports
3.) Stop the run
We all know what happened the last time the Patriots visited Orchard Park on Dec. 6. That Monday night saw New England run for 222 yards, while only throwing three passes.
While that game was dictated by incredibly windy conditions, the Bills still knew it was coming, and the Patriots still controlled the clock on the ground.
Even though there isn’t expected to be that much wind on Saturday, I expect them to try to do something similar. Not only to try to take advantage of a Bills run defense that has allowed some big runs, at times - including a 64-yard run to Damien Harris in that game - but also to keep Allen and their offense off the field and shorten the game.
The Patriots also won’t want to put too much on rookie quarterback Mac Jones. If the Bills can stop the run, especially on first and second down, they'll be in a very advantageous position.
NOTES AND STATS:
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