It's hard to imagine any other executive in professional sports treating this offseason like Bill Belichick. Tom Brady will be 41 years old next season and there's no longer an heir apparent waiting behind him. The next guy, even if he's drafted next month, will likely take a couple of years to evaluate. And the chances of him turning into Jimmy Garoppolo, who recently inked the richest deal in NFL history, are slim.
Conventional wisdom says this is the time to load up for Brady. Bring back his "brothers for life," even if they aren't worth the money. Brady doesn't have time for a retooling season. Worry about that later.
Besides, Belichick might not be around for the next phase, either. He's pledged he doesn't want to stick around and coach in his 70s like Marv Levy.
Belichick is 65.
Despite those incredible circumstances, Belichick appears to be moving forward like nothing has changed. There's been lots of talk about how this feels like a different offseason in Foxborough. Players aren't taking discounts to stay. The ones left seem to be sending out signals for help. "Be HAPPY. Be FREE," Rob Gronkowski wrote in his farewell Instagram post to Danny Amendola.
Brady responded by saying the remarks were "well said," complete with five exclamation points and three clapping emojis.
It's been a weird five months. In late October, ESPN's Seth Wickersham published his first of two Patriots doomsday pieces. In it, a source close to Belichick predicted a "collision was coming" between the coach and Brady over Alex Guerrero. Days later, Garoppolo was shipped out of town for a second-round pick. Then we found out Guerrero was banned from the sidelines and forced to work on players outside of the locker room. Two scenes showing Guerrero massaging Brady in a Gillette Stadium suit somehow made their way into "Tom vs. Time."
Wickersham attempted to explain all of the strangeness with a bombshell piece forecasting the end of the Patriots dynasty. According to Wickersham's sources, owner Robert Kraft forced Belichick to trade Garoppolo. Worst of all, the rift between Belichick and Brady was worsening. That's been followed with reports about Gronkowski, who still hasn't committed to returning for 2018, tiring of the Patriots' suffocating culture.
But amidst all of those reported issues, the Patriots still pulled off a 10-point comeback win in the AFC championship. Brady played maybe the best Super Bowl of his career against the Eagles, barely falling short.
There have been extenuating circumstances since then. The bizarre Malcolm Butler benching might have been the difference in Super Bowl LII. Brady, in the final scene of "Tom vs. Time," talks about losing his conviction to play football. Even more ominously, Gisele Bundchen says her husband wants to feel "appreciated" at work.
It's foolish to ignore all of these odd events. The end feels closer than ever. But through it all, Belichick hasn't deviated from his cold-hearted methods. That's comforting, in an odd sense.
The totality of the Patriots' losses makes it easy to paint a gloomy picture. Within three days, they lost their starting left tackle, most dependable cornerback, best playoff receiver and top running back. But in isolation, none of these four departures are unusual.
Nate Solder leaves the biggest hole, as NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran notes. The Patriots knew his free agency was approaching, and didn't seem to formulate a backup plan. The favorite to protect Brady's blindside is LeAdrian Wattle, or somebody named Antonio Garcia, who missed his entire rookie season.
But that's a different issue from Solder himself. The Giants signed him to the biggest deal an offensive lineman has ever received, and it's apparent Belichick doesn't view Solder as an elite left tackle. The Patriots made Solder play out all five seasons of his rookie deal before giving him a two-year extension. That's not how teams treat franchise pillars.
Butler's exit isn't surprising, for the Super Bowl benching and how he was handled last offseason. The Patriots reportedly low-balled Butler, and then gave $40 million guaranteed to Stephon Gilmore. ESPN's Field Yates says the Patriots did make a fair offer to Butler in 2017, but those numbers curiously just came out this week.
Belichick doesn't move with the market. He gives players top dollar when he thinks they're worth it –– Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Devin McCourty. When placed in this context, the Solder and Butler losses aren't surprising.
Amendola's playoff awesomeness endeared him to Brady. His good looks endeared him to me –– and Olivia Culpo. But with Julian Edelman healthy, Amendola slots in at No. 3 or No. 4 on the Patriots' receiver depth chart. He's also 32 years old and injury prone. There's no way the Patriots were giving him $8.25 million guaranteed over two years, just like they weren't shelling out $11.5 million guaranteed for Dion Lewis. Running backs, from Shane Vereen to Danny Woodhead, come and go. Belichick views players like Lewis as replaceable.
The Patriots are operating like they're working with a five-year window. That's how Belichick has always done it. There have been times, such as 2009-2013, when he's been willing to hit the reset button and integrate a new core around Brady. Over that time, the Patriots brought in Gronkowski, McCourty, Solder, Dont'a Hightower, Chandler James and Jamie Collins. It looks like Belichick is trying to bring in the next wave.
We know Brady will be back this season. And let's say he has another MVP-caliber campaign. Who's to say he would walk away after that? It's possible all of the ominous pontificating and social media posts are just words.
There's no denying the weirdness around Foxborough around. Through it all, Belichick is carrying on. The only thing that would make this offseason more disconcerting is if he changed course.
