The last few years have not been good for football. Suicidal ex-players keep coming forward to talk about their mangled brains and destroyed lives. The NFL's dark history of suppressing concussion research has been revealed, with thousands of former players successfully suing the league for more than $1 billion –– although the NFL has only followed through with 23 percent of its projected payments.
Youth participation in the game is falling and interest appears to be, too. Surely, you have heard about the NFL's declining TV ratings. Viewership for college football was down last season as well, though playoff numbers were up.
And yet, despite all of those harbingers of doom, two new professional leagues are slated to launch within the next three years. Vince McMahon says he's going to give the XFL another try in 2020, and players will be forced to stand for the national anthem, dammit.
The XFL announcement wasn't surprising. Last year, the WWE attempted to trademark "He Hate Me," the infamous nickname held by ex-player Rod Smart. In a 30-for-30 documentary that aired earlier this year, McMahon acknowledged he would like to enter the professional football world again.
Charlie Ebersol, son of original XFL partner Dick Ebersol, was the director of that 30-for-30 feature. That's why it was so surprising this week when he announced he's starting a new football league of his own. American Alliance Football, set to debut in 2019, will consist of eight teams and serve as a feeder system for the NFL. The season will end in April.
But still, Ebersol likely wouldn't have decided to launch the AAF if he didn't think there was any money in it. Certainly, CBS Sports Network wouldn't agree to air the games if it didn't believe people were interested.
It's trendy to say the NFL is oversaturated. The Thursday night games are horrible, and as Sean McDonough acknowledged on K&C last week, the Monday night contests aren't all that great, either. Primetime ratings continue to trend downward, indicating people want less football –– not more.
Despite that data, Fox recently spent $550 million to broadcast "Thursday Night Football" for five years. Fox is doubling down on the NFL, picking up its most reviled primetime package.
This is a classic example of where the perception surrounding football doesn't match the reality. NFL games still accounted for 37 of the top-50 rated programs in 2017. In the era of cord-cutting, football still draws big in comparison to almost everything else on TV.
Even the storyline of plummeting youth participation is exaggerated. More kids between the ages of 6-12 played tackle football in 2016 than 2015. Participation in flag football received an even bigger jump.
Those figures aren't presented as an endorsement to have seven year olds knock heads with each other. There is enough science out there to definitively say kids shouldn't be rattling their brains on the gridiron before they can even drive a car. But there still seems to be a thirst for the game. The bombardment of negative press –– most of it deserved, mind you –– doesn't seem to be scaring away an entire generation of players.
There are plenty of reasons to believe the NFL has already reached its popularity apex. In addition to declining ratings, its television audience keeps getting older, while the NBA's stays younger.
But for a dying game, football is still receiving lots of investment. This is an enviable way to go down.
