The American League technically consists of 15 teams, but we only need to care about three of them.
The Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros have dominated the AL since Opening Day. If the second half plays out like the first, the Red Sox will finish with 112 wins, followed by the Yankees (105) and Astros (104).
In the postseason, anything can happen yada, yada, yada, and either Boston or New York will host a one-game playoff -- probably against the Mariners or A's -- for the right to visit the other in the most-hyped first-round series of all-time.
But let's assume Boston's road to the World Series passes through New York and Houston. How do the Red Sox match up against the only teams that matter?
Let's break it down, with league rankings in parentheses. Spoiler alert: we should not be sleeping on the Astros.
Offense
Runs per game: Red Sox (5.41, 1st), Yankees (5.19, 2nd), Astros (5.05, 3rd)Average: Red Sox (.272, 1st), Astros (.261, 2nd), Yankees (.252, 6th)Home runs: Yankees (161, 1st), Red Sox (134, 2nd), Astros (126, 6th)OPS: Red Sox (.801, 1st), Yankees (.793, 2nd), Astros (.768, 3rd)Steals: Red Sox (74, 1st), Astros (53, 5th), Yankees (41, 11th)
The skinny: The Red Sox lead the American League in virtually everything, and it's no accident. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez could make compelling cases to finish 1-2 in the MVP voting, Mitch Moreland is an All-Star and Andrew Benintendi made the final vote, and Xander Bogaerts ended the first half on a power surge that has him on pace for 29 homers and 105 RBIs.
Add the ideal combination of speed and discretion -- the Red Sox lead the league in steals and success rate (84 percent) -- and you're looking at an offense that can beat you in every way.
If there's a weakness, it's the fact that they're top-heavy. They've received below-average production out of catcher, second base, third base, and center field. The emergence of Jackie Bradley or Rafael Devers, or a temporary upgrade in the form of someone like third baseman Mike Moustakas, would alleviate those depth concerns.
The Yankees are one-dimensional by comparison, but that dimension matters most in today's game. Every spot in their batting order is a threat to go deep. Seven regulars have already hit at least 12 homers, led by Aaron Judge (25) and Giancarlo Stanton (23), neither of whom has really caught fire. Rookies Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar have provided a gigantic lift, and even though he has cooled since a torrid start, shortstop Didi Gregorius could still finish with 30 homers.
The Yankees are one of the easiest teams in the league to strike out (866, 3rd), and Gregorius is the only player on the team with 10 steals (in 16 chances). They're built to beat teams into submission, and as David Price learned a couple of weeks ago, their bludgeons can leave a mark.
The Astros, meanwhile, have had a strange season. A year after winning the World Series, they're right there among the scoring leaders again, and their plus-188 run differential leads baseball (the Red Sox are plus-163), but they've seen a number of stalwarts backslide. Defending MVP Jose Altuve is hitting .332, but with a noticeable drop in power and production. Carlos Correa has seen his OPS fall over 100 points. A year after hitting a career-high 23 homers, Marwin Gonzalez is barely slugging .350. Jake Marisnick hit .191 and got shipped to the minors. World Series MVP George Springer has seen his numbers decline across the board. Only third baseman Alex Bregman has made a leap forward.
The Astros that pummeled the Red Sox right out of the playoffs haven't quite materialized, but their OPS-plus of 116 actually leads the AL, taking into account some giant pitcher-friendly parks in the AL West. They're still really good, and there's still time.
Edge: Teams built around power and strikeouts can be negated in the postseason, and that's the Yankees. Teams built around power and speed can win in multiple ways, and that's the Red Sox. That said, Boston may hold the numbers edge, but come October, no lineup looks more formidable, from top to bottom, than Houston's.
Pitching
ERA: Astros (2.94, 1st), Yankees (3.48, 2nd), Red Sox (3.59, 3rd)Strikeouts/9: Astros (10.5, 1st), Yankees (9.9, 2nd), Red Sox (9.7, 3rd)Bullpen ERA: Yankees (2.69, 1st), Astros (2.75, 2st), Red Sox (3.27, 3rd)Save percentage: Red Sox (80, 1st), Yankees (78, 2nd), Astros (67, 7th)
The skinny: Here's where the Red Sox may struggle, particularly in the wake of Eduardo Rodriguez's sprained ankle and uncertainty beyond ace Chris Sale.
The Astros rotation is freaking awesome. Ace Justin Verlander has delivered a Cy Young-caliber season. So has No. 2 starter Gerrit Cole. Fifth starter Charlie Morton leads the staff with 11 wins and was just added to the All-Star team, meaning 60 percent of Houston's rotation spent the first half of the week in D.C. The other two starters are former Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel and 10-game winner Lance McCullers. The Astros are stacked.
About the only weakness on their roster is closer. Cussin' Ken Giles was shipped to Triple-A last week after dropping an F-bomb while being lifted from a game, but his 4.99 ERA probably had something to do with it, too. The Astros have blown 12 saves this year (though none by Giles), compared to eight each for the Red Sox and Yankees.
Based on run differential, the Astros should have 70 wins instead of 64 (and the Red Sox 65 instead of 69). It's possible they've just been victims of bad luck -- their bullpen has particularly struggled against the A's, for whatever reason -- but what's clear is they have the potential to be overpowering across the spectrum.
The Red Sox look better on paper than in reality. Sale (10-4, 2.23) is a monster who has yet to prove he can remain strong through September, let alone October, and the rest of the rotation has flaws. Price's flameout against the Yankees offers a reminder that we'll have a hard time trusting him in the postseason, where he has still never won a start. Rick Porcello hits the All-Star break with an ERA over 4.00. E-Rod may not be reliable in terms of innings, but his performance (11-3, 3.44) was pretty solid before he landed on the DL.
The bullpen offers similar question marks. Closer Craig Kimbrel was better last year, but he remains dominant, with 30 saves and a 1.77 ERA. Setup men Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, and Heath Hembree vacillate in and out of reliability, with Kelly's struggles since the start of June particularly concerning. We'll see what Tyler Thornburg delivers over the next couple of weeks before Dave Dombrowski works the phones at the trade deadline.
As for the Yankees, Luis Severino (14-2, 2.31) is a bonafide ace who matches up with any of the aforementioned arms. The crafty CC Sabathia continues to defy time as he closes in on 250 career wins. The rest of the rotation is meh, from Sonny Gray (6-7, 5.46) to Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.54) and Domingo German (2-5, 5.49). The rotation is New York's biggest area of need heading into the trade deadline, and GM Brian Cashman will be active on that front, since the right arm could swing the balance of power in the division, even if it's merely someone like Blue Jays lefty J.A. Happ.
New York's bullpen is its real weapon. Not only do the Yankees lead the AL in bullpen ERA, they do it with fire. Each of their five principal relievers averages at least 10.9 strikeouts per nine, led by closer Aroldis Chapman (3-0, 1.35, 26 saves), who has struck out 68 in 40 innings. His rate of 15.3/9 actually ranks behind teammate Dellin Betances (72 in 41 1/3, 15.7), who has tamed whatever control demons plagued him last year, allowing only one run in his last 21 appearances.
Edge: The Yankees have questions in the rotation that may be addressed in the next two weeks, but at least the support of an overwhelming bullpen. The Red Sox need help in the rotation and relief. The Astros? Outside of closer, they're a machine, and clearly the team to fear, again.
Management/Intangibles/Trade deadline
The skinny: Rookies Alex Cora and Aaron Boone have gotten off to amazing starts in Boston and New York, respectively, though it feels like Cora has made more of an impact, especially with young players like Betts and Benintendi. The Red Sox carry themselves with a swagger that's a direct extension of their skipper, and if Manager of the Year voting were conducted today, he'd get this vote, anyway.
After playing in New York, Boone has shown an ability to handle the second-guessing that comes with being Yankees manager. He was slaughtered, for instance, for intentionally walking Josh Donaldson before a Justin Smoak grand slam in the opening series of the year. But he has shown faith in Torres and Andujar while also finessing his way around the mediocre portions of his rotation.
As for A.J. Hinch, he's seen this already. He has led the Astros to the playoffs twice in three seasons since taking over what had been a 70-win team in 2015. He won an epic World Series last year by giving Morton the ball in Game 7. He's battle-tested, and so is his team.
None of these squads lacks confidence, though Boston has the most to prove in the postseason. New York is far and away the best-positioned to make a splash on July 31, thanks to its financial and prospect reserves. The Red Sox made their big splash in spring training by signing Martinez, who has not only been a force, but a calming influence in the clubhouse. The Astros struck gold when they acquired Cole from the rebuilding Pirates over the winter. The Yankees landed their big bat with Stanton at the same time.
Edge: The Astros are fine as is, but will probably add a reliever. E-Rod's injury leaves the Red Sox contemplating the need to add a starter and reliever, even though they likely only possess the prospects to address one or the other. The Yankees can do whatever they want.
Once again, the Astros feel like they're in the sweet spot. Even if they add nothing to their current roster, they'll be positioned to ride their experience into October, where they will once again be the team to beat.
