We've spent two years debating Marcus Smart's value on the open market.
He's worth Evan Turner money; he's going to fall through the cracks. He's worth more to the Celtics than anyone else; he'll have suitors. He'll get $20 million a year; he'll get $10 million a year.
With Smart set to hit restricted free agency this offseason, we still have no idea what kind of offers he'll receive. He's a historically bad shooter, and yet clearly he's a winning player on the defensive end and as a playmaker.
You know who's name never comes up in that discussion?
Terry Rozier.
Halfway through the season, Rozier was what he was -- a combo guard shooting 39 percent from the floor and averaging nine points and 23 minutes a night. Post those numbers over an entire career and congratulations, you're Dajuan Wagner. Colitis limited his career to 103 games.
Something completely unexpected has happened over the last month, however. With Celtics guards dropping like retiring congressmen, Rozier has been forced from the third string into the starting lineup. And he has established himself as indispensable.
In Game 7 against the Bucks, he dropped 26 points on Not Drew Bledsoe. He followed that effort with 29 points in a Game 1 shellacking of the Sixers. With Game 2 set for Thursday night in Boston, we ask a question undoubtedly swirling about the heads of Celtics executives -- Smart or Rozier?
Technically a decision can wait, since Rozier won't become a restricted free agent for another year. But the Celtics need to plan for a future with only one of them, and it's not cut and dried.
Rozier is earning himself serious money this postseason. He's averaging 19 points, 4.8 rebounds and 6.6 assists while shooting .438 from 3-point land. Even better, the pressure on him has been intense. Until Smart returned from thumb surgery in Game 5 against the Bucks, Rozier and undersized reserve Shane Larkin were the only healthy point guards on the roster. As a result, Rozier has averaged almost 36 minutes a night while committing only 13 turnovers in eight games. He's dominating the ball, making proper decisions, and fearlessly seeking his own offense. It bears repeating: he's supposed to be a third-stringer.
Rozier's success could be pricing him out of Boston. Smart's hitting restricted free agency at a time when only a handful of teams have money after the big free-agent splurges of two years ago. Now that money is tighter across the league, he may not find a robust market for his services, particularly given his deficiencies.
Rozier, on the other hand, is opening eyes and answering questions. He remains an aggressive on-ball defender and might be the best pound-for-pound rebounder in the league, routinely soaring into traffic to snag defensive boards. But now he's showcasing a deeper offensive game than anyone expected, leapfrogging Smart on the depth chart in the process.
Last month, Alex Kungu at Celtics Blog made the case that Danny Ainge should trade Rozier this summer, since his value is exploding and Smart's probably a better long-term fit in a supporting role. Rozier's value is tied to increased minutes, and those will be hard to come by if Irving and Gordon Hayward return to full health and Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum continue to develop. In that sense, Smart represents the better piece to the puzzle.
Gimme talent, though. Rozier is the more complete player and there's room for his game to grow, particularly offensively. Smart's shot looks just as bad as it did the day he entered the league, and so do his numbers (.360 from the floor, .293 from 3-point land lifetime). Rozier has higher upside and a more dynamic skill-set. Whatever you lose defensively, taking charges, forcing jump balls, etc. . . . should be offset by shot-making.
So while it's by no means an easy call, it's ultimately an obvious one. The last six weeks have opened our eyes to Rozier's burgeoning skills, and as much as we love Smart's intangibles, there can be only one.
I say it's Rozier.
