Dave Dombrowski's free-wheeling ways are often cited as the primary culprit for the Red Sox' barren minor league system, leaving them in a seemingly precaurious position at the trade deadline. But the team's porous recent draft history is just as culpable.
Andrew Benintendi is the only impactful Major Leaguer the Red Sox have selected over the last five years. Picked in the first round of the 2015 MLB amateur draft, Benintendi has risen to stardom, debuting for the stretch run in 2016 and posting a .908 OPS this season. It's slim pickings next to Benintendi, however. Sam Travis has appeared in the second-most games for the Red Sox out of any player drafted over the last five years, playing in 33 contests last season and getting into five games this year. Reliever Bobby Poyner is third, appearing in 10 games so far.
Granted, Dombrowski's proclivity for dealing prospects plays a big role in the shallowness of the system right now. Since he took over the baseball operations department in 2015, the Red Sox have dealt Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Anderson Espinoza, Manuel Margot, Javy Guerra, Mauricio Dubon and Travis Shaw.
There's a cumulative effect to all of Dombrowski's trades. One overpayment, such as shipping the flame-throwing Espinoza to the Padres for Drew Pomeranz, can have a significant carryover effect. For example, since the Red Sox traded Espinoza, Kopech was the only high-ceiling pitching prospect left in their system when Dombrowski acquired Sale prior to the 2017 season. If Espinoza were still around, perhaps the Red Sox wouldn't have had to give up Kopech. Or, if Dombrowski didn't trade two top-10 prospects for Craig Kimbrel (Margot and Guerra), the system would be deeper. None of these moves can be viewed in isolation.
But that doesn't change the fact the Red Sox have had a bad recent draft history. The first three players they've selected in every draft from 2013-2017 are listed below:
2013:1st-round: Trey Ball LHP (AA, 7.23 ERA)2nd-round: Teddy Stankiewicz RHP (AA, 4.62 ERA)3rd-round: Jon Denney C (Last played in 2016)
2014:1st-round: Michael Chavis SS (Just coming off 80-game PED suspension)2nd-round: Michael Kopech RHP (AAA for White Sox, 4.29 ERA)3rd-round: Sam Travis 1B (.250 hitter in 101 MLB plate appearances)
2015:1st-round: Andrew Benintendi OF (Stud)3rd-round: Austin Rei C (AA, .761 OPS)4th-round: Tate Matheny CF (AA, .674 OPS)
2016:1st-round: Jay Groome LHP (Tommy John)2nd-round: CJ Chatman SS (A+, .716 OPS)3rd-round: Shaun Anderson RHP (AA for Giants, 4.07 ERA)
2017:1st-round: Tanner Houck RHP (A+, 5.90 ERA)2nd-round: Cole Brannen OF (A, .451 OPS)3rd-round: Brett Netzer 2B (A+, .692 OPS)
As you can see, the Red Sox have fallen victim to some bad luck, in the form of Chavis' PED suspension and Groome's Tommy John surgery. Their first-round pick this year, infielder Triston Casas, is also out for the season with a thumb injury.
But overall, that is a subpar recent draft record, which predates back to Ben Cherington. The choice to select Ball in the first-round of the 2013 looks especially disastrous. Enough time has passed to label that selection an all-around bust.
Dombrowski's zealous trading habits would drain any farm system. But the replenishing process is near impossible without reinforcements consistently coming in.
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