Some have dismissed the first-place Red Sox as beneficiaries of a weak schedule and soft American League. The Globe's Dan Shaughnessy, for example, says it's impossible to ascertain the Red Sox' true ceiling, because their opponents have been so horrible. Those doubts set the stage for a critical battle against the defending champion Astros this weekend, at least for the sake of public perception.
There's little doubt the Red Sox have cleaned up on the bottom of the AL East through the first two months of the season. They're 22-7 against the Rays, Jays and Orioles, who are collectively 26 games below .500. Baltimore brings the average way down, with its atrocious 17-39 record.
Those numbers create the illusion the Red Sox are just beating up on a weakened landscape, with numerous teams opting to abstain from free agency last offseason and tank in pursuit of a high draft pick –– much like the Astros. But when compared to recent seasons, the Red Sox' competition this year isn't worse than usual. They're sitting at 39-17 because they're a good team, not because the AL is feeble.
This season, the Red Sox' strength of schedule is ranked 11th in MLB, with their opponents possessing an average winning percentage of .505. The Astros have actually had an easier schedule, and the Yankees' opponents have an average winning percentage of .513. The discrepancy is minimal.
Over the last five seasons, Red Sox opponents have owned an average winning percentage of .505. In other words, the exact same as this year.
Overall, the average AL winning percentage is .492. That's low in comparison to the previous five years, when it was .505. But the wretched Orioles, White Sox and Royals are largely to blame for that. They have an average winning percentage of .321.
While the disparity between the haves and have nots is greater right now, there are still the same number of quality teams. There are currently eight clubs in the AL sitting at .500 or better. From 2013-217, eight AL teams have finished at .500 or above as well.
The Red Sox have walloped their share of tomato cans so far. But they've been presented with that opportunity in recent years, too. The eyesores at the bottom of the league shouldn't detract from the larger picture.
