There's been a lot of talk around these parts as of late about how Jarrett Stidham's being a fourth-round pick and how it relates to his chances of having a successful career.
This an idiotic notion, as it ignores roughly everything that has anything to do with a QB's odds of success.
Here are all the quarterbacks drafted in the fourth round since 2010, excluding this past draft:
MIKE KAFKA (PHI)
KIRK COUSINS (WAS)
MATT BARKLEY (PHI)
RYAN NASSIB (NYG)
TYLER WILSON (OAK)
LANDRY JONES (PIT)
LOGAN THOMAS (ARI)
TOM SAVAGE (HOU)
BRYCE PETTY (NYJ)
CONNOR COOK (OAK)
DAK PRESCOTT (DAL)
CARDALE JONES (BUF)
JOSHUA DOBBS (PIT)
KYLE LAULETTA (NYG)
RYAN FINLEY (CIN)
JARRETT STIDHAM (NE)
How many of these QBs have been given legitimate chances to start real games? The answer, for now, is eight but will be nine when Jarrett Stidham, presumably, is under center for the Patriots this fall.
Put Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins aside for now. That leaves us with Landry Jones, Tom Savage, Bryce Petty, Connor Cook, Joshua Dobbs, and Ryan Finley.
Landry Jones and Joshua Dobbs both saw time as some sort of byproduct of Ben Roethlisberger being injured. They were never handed the reins or built around for any extended period of time. Neither performed particularly poorly, but neither showed the kind of flash the Steelers would have had to think there was a chance either was a better option than Roethlisberger.
Bryce Petty and Ryan Finley can be dismissed as being collateral damage of horrible teams. Petty started seven games over two seasons on Jets teams that finished 5-11 two seasons in a row as well as finishing 31st and 25th in offensive DVOA in those two seasons. In other words, the teams stunk and the issues went far beyond Petty. The same can be said about Finley, who was given a shot last season when the Bengals were already 0-8. We don't need traditional or analytical statistics to convey how bad the 2019 Bengals were as a team.
Connor Cook's "chance" came during his rookie season in 2016 when both Derek Carr and Matt McGloin went down with injuries, McGloin's coming during Week 17. With a week of prep time and jumping from third string to first, Cook was bullied by the Texans and their 2nd-ranked passing defense as the Raiders lost 14-27. From there, the Raiders were obviously committed to Derek Carr.
Aside from Prescott and Cousins, Tom Savage is the fourth-round QB from this decade (2010-2019) with the most on-field experience and consistently the best supporting cast. Savage started nine games with the Texans between 2016 and 2017, with the 2017 starts coming after Deshaun Watson tore his ACL. There was enough of a sample size between the two seasons when considering the supporting cast to determine Savage was not fit to be a full-time starter, but regardless Houston was committed to Deshaun Watson.
All these players got their "chance" either due to injury or due to being on a bad team and the team wanting to see what they had in the player. That leads to Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, whose chances came via injuries to Tony Romo and Robert Griffin III. There's no way to know if these two would have ever seen the field had their predecessors not gone down, but they've undoubtedly turned into premiere starters in the league. Prescott had an insane supporting cast and performed well during his rookie season in 2016.
Cousins developed under the offensive football Avengers of Mike Shanahan, Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, and Sean McVay for two seasons and continued with McVay as his offensive coordinator by the time Cousins was named the full-time starter before the 2015 season. From there Cousins had the skill position talent to go along with the coaching for at least 2015 and 2016 before the roster around him started to fall apart. Still, Cousins managed to finish 7th and in passing yards in 2017.
Cousins is the exception, not the rule. He's the picture boy for how a fourth-round pick can be successful in the NFL: He's always had progressive and innovative offensive coordinators in Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, and Kevin Stefanski and always had at least a decent supporting cast. None of the points made about the systems around Cousins or Prescott is to take away from what they've accomplished in the league. It might be a radical thought, but every QB is a system QB. No QB has ever had sustained success when the system and supporting cast around them has been poor. Not one. Not Tom Brady last season, and not Dan Orlovsky, Jon Kitna and Daunte Culpepper on the 0-16 Lions in 2008.
Supporting cast is the question with Stidham. Coaching is not the question. The Patriots' offense couldn't run a play last season. Most of the pieces responsible for that will return in 2020. The only difference is health on the offensive line and a duo of rookie tight ends. But the unit won't be tethered to the Tom Brady offense that made victims out of players who didn't catch on soon enough. Players like N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers will continue to develop in unison with Jarrett Stidham.
What the Patriots are about to do with Jarrett Stidham is completely uncharted waters. This decade, a sample which more accurately reflects the way the league is right now, never saw a team intentionally commit to a QB taken in the fourth round of the draft this early in their career and construct the team around that QB with the intention of him being a long-term starter. Stidham being a fourth-round pick is irrelevant to his future. What's relevant is how the team around him performs and how the Patriots construct the team. If we're going to rely on what history says, history says the Patriots have done fine with performance and construction.
Now let's hope Stidham doesn't step on the field and throw 40 interceptions. If Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels don't think he will, then the rest of us should have nothing to worry about.
