The highest-paid pitcher in baseball hit free agency at age 30 after leading the American League in ERA and finishing second in the Cy Young Award voting. He had just topped 30 starts for the fifth time in six years and represented as safe a bet as a pitcher in his 30s could be.
David Price may yet earn his $217 million from the Red Sox, but it's safe to characterize the ride thus far as bumpy bordering on pukey. The Red Sox would need to see multiple seasons of Price's last seven starts, all wins, to provide an adequate return on their investment.
His ambush of Dennis Eckersley aside, Price's primary issues have been health-related, from an elbow that nearly needed surgery, to tingly fingers, to carpal tunnel syndrome. He embodies the risks associated with signing free agent pitchers in their 30s -- no matter what you think you know, time and attrition have a way of exacting their toll dramatically and without warning.
The point of this discussion isn't Price, however. It's the left-hander alongside him in the Red Sox rotation.
When the Red Sox acquired Chris Sale from the White Sox two winters ago, it was a certified blockbuster. The 27-year-old had just finished a run of five straight All-Star teams and top-six Cy Young Award finishes. He extended that streak to six in his Boston debut, tying a career-high with 17 wins and setting another with 308 strikeouts en route to second place in the Cy race, as well as the first top-10 MVP finish of his career.
The Red Sox could scarcely have hoped for more, though Sale did noticeably tire over the final two months before allowing four homers to the Astros in the playoffs.
So far this year, Sale is once again answering the bell. In Tuesday's 6-2 loss against the Twins, he was outstanding. He limited the hosts to three hits and two runs in seven innings, walking one and striking out 11. Save for some bad luck -- he drilled Joe Mauer as the veteran squared to bunt during a two-run sixth -- he might've held the Twins scoreless. Regardless, he dropped his ERA to 2.74 while raising his strikeout total to 140 in the no-decision.
So far, so good. If every starter in the big leagues was thrown into a draft, Sale would go no worse than fifth. He's a stud.
He also might be the biggest bargain in baseball. He's making $12.5 million with a $13.5 million option for 2019 that Boston may as well exercise tomorrow.
He's closing in on 30, however, with free agency around the corner, which means the Red Sox will soon have a decision to make.
The question will be whether to extend him. He owns a losing lifetime record in September/October and tends to hit a wall come Aug. 1. His late-season fade is usually attributed to his green-bean physique. At 6-foot-6, 180 pounds, he'll never be mistaken for Aaron Judge.
The Red Sox could be backed into a corner, though. Right-hander Rick Porcello becomes a free agent after next season, and Price could join him if he chooses to opt out of his deal. Drew Pomeranz could leave this winter. The farm system appears barren, thanks to Jay Groome's recent Tommy John surgery.
In a perfect world, the Red Sox would already have Sale's replacement in the pipeline. The fact that they don't could leave them in a position they'd like to avoid -- betting that this time, the 30-year-old pitcher won't end up in the breakdown lane with his hazards flashing.
They made that wager on Price and now they might be stuck with him. Will they be disciplined enough to let Sale walk if they fear he won't stay healthy? Or will they overpay him because the alternative -- starting Eduardo Rodriguez on Opening Day 2020 -- feels untenable?
Based on the present, extending him is a no-brainer. But projecting Sale won't be easy.
This one was a game until Robby Scott entered in the eighth with the scored tied at two. Summoned from Triple-A Pawtucket earlier in the day, Scott walked one and hit a batter before yielding to Joe Kelly, who allowed a two-run single to Eduardo Escobar and bases-clearing triple to Robbie Grossman as part of a four-run uprising that sealed it.
