Fantasy Football: Who to start on championship weekend?

It's a huge weekend for the Patriots and for all you Patriots fans, but it's also the last weekend for organic play on DraftKings. Sure, they may dream up a game for Super Bowl week—probably joining it with the Pro Bowl again, but that's a total waste of time unless you just want the action, and that's not my bag.  I like the real games.So, after this week, Jim Hackett and I will be pivoting to 2018. We'll be breaking down the rookie class and we'll be talking about dynasty and best ball leagues, which are already heating up. There are podcasts and more coming soon, my friends.Last week we had a somewhat unusual four game docket—similar to the Thanksgiving slate though one game smaller.  This week, we have a two game slate, and that's a very different animal.The first thing you need to do with two game pools is prognosticate the games themselves.  How do you think the games will flow?  Once you get a feel for how you want to play that aspect, you'll want to dig into pricing and see how much of the good stuff (as you see it) can be crammed into your lineup or lineups.OVERVIEWIn a general sense, I like the Patriots/Jaguars game and dislike the Eagles/Vikings, but with one caveat—I like the Vikings' passing game enough to get involved to some extent.  You have two very good defenses going in Philadelphia, but the Eagles do give up big plays in the passing game. Philadelphia and Minnesota are super tough on running backs, both in real life and in fantasy.  As far as choosing a defense goes, the Vikings really stand out as a great option, and I want to play them if I can fit them in. Having said that, all four defenses have solid scoring potential and you can create good lineups with any of them so don't get too fixated on the Vikings.In the Patriots/Jaguars game, I think we will have more offense, and I think we can do a decent job at isolating some of that production. I am fading the Patriots wide receivers for the most part, but not the passing game itself, because I have high hopes for Gronk and the running backs.QUARTERBACKSJaguars at PatriotsTom Brady, $7,700Blake Bortles, $5,000Vikings at EaglesNick Foles, $4,800Case Keenum, $6,600If you are just playing the odds, then you take Brady or Keenum, but the cost and the way you go about winning a GPP changes the calculus. Having said that, these are obviously HUGE games and the hometown fans will probably give all four quarterbacks some support. That should inflate the ownership of Bortles, and Foles as well.For my money, the alt play is Bortles, and not Foles, for a few reasons. First off, Bortles is better. Almost any criticism you can throw at Bortles can be applied to Foles as well. On the other side, Bortles has strengths that Foles can only dream of. Furthermore, Foles is playing a nasty defense while Bortles is facing a good defense that tends to give up yardage. Bortles will be in position to have a solid fantasy day. Foles may not—probably won't.  So I will have a Bortles lineup or two this week and I will probably do the full fade on Foles.Now for the fun stuff.  Tom Brady is looking like a more viable play than he was early this week.  The magic question, obviously, is will the hand be functional?  Will he be less than normal?  Again, remember the dynamic.  We're talking about DraftKings tournament play here.  Brady's ownership will almost assuredly be lower than it would have been with no injury.  That creates some opportunity from an ownership perspective. Damn the risks.  The numbers say that you will probably lose, so why play fearfully?  You have a better chance to do something positive by having a good plan and being aggressive.  My overall quarterback usage at this time looks like this in terms of shares.Brady 40%Keenum 40%Bortles 20%Foles 0%That's the breakdown of the ten lineups I have put together so far and it's a good representation of what I plan on doing overall.  I am leaving myself open on the Foles front, but that's a risk am fine with. I love being contrarian, but I have my limits, and Foles versus the Vikings is a solid representation of those limits.RUNNING BACKSDion Lewis, Patriots vs. Jaguars, $8,100He's obviously an outstanding option, but there is a cost to using him in that he limits your lineup construction in a big way.  For example, if you key Dion, Brady and Gronk in as your lineup's core, you are left with 4,383 per player to complete your lineup.  This is a tough week to deal with that.  The 3,000 unit and 2,500 unit options are serious longshots and it's actually pretty tough overall once you go below 4,200 units and you are already near that threshold once to employ the Brady/Dion/Gronk stack.  Even adding James White (and I really want to) is tough at 4,900 units.  So while I love Dion, it's complicated if you are trying to play a lot of your Patriots.  I plan on having about 70 percent exposure to Lewis overall.Leonard Fournette, Jaguars at Patriots, $7,200There are a lot of ways to play Fournette this week. You could pair him with any of the four quarterbacks.  Obviously, if you play the big Patriots stack that I mentioned, you cannot even consider Fournette. You'd have to dump either Gronk or Dion.  Going with White instead of Lewis does allow you to squeeze Fournette in.  That being said, I don't like that move. In fact, I am inclined to fade Fournette, because Bill Belichick may decide to take him away or at least make things tough on him.  He's smart enough to know that a big day from Fournette puts his team in jeopardy, and, tactically, he has options as we saw last week versus Derrick Henry and Marcus Mariota.  You'll see some new twists, but the same general approach—make them throw to win.James White, Patriots vs. Jaguars, $4,900He was one of the guys who saved me last week. Once Rex Burkhead was ruled out, I went all-in on White. Burkhead could return this week, and he could have a role, but White has been too valuable in the postseason for the Patriots to not give him a legit role, and at this price, he's viable.  And, if Burkead is still less than 100 percent, White could feast as he did last week.Latavius Murray, Vikings at Eagles, $5,700The game flow should give him opportunity, but the Eagles are stout on the ground.  I think a lot of people will roster Murray—hoping for a big workload and some goal line chances.  I'm inclined to fade that, with the idea that the Eagles could stuff a few goal line carries and Murray could end up with about 60 yards rushing and not much else.  I have other ways I want to use that money.  If you think Murray will run well on Philly, you should probably overrule me here.  If I am going to use a Minnesota back, I am probably going with Jerick McKinnon ($5,100), who saves me money and who could make a few big plays as a receiver.  That being said, I am not exactly looking to play McKinnon either.  I'd much rather play the slightly cheaper James White.WIDE RECEIVERSStefon Diggs, Vikings at Eagles, $6,900He'll be a trendy play, which is too bad, because I love him this week. I'll be paying up for Diggs in most of my lineups, because he has the after the catch skills that have been so effective against the Eagles secondary this year.  He's my go-to play this week, and I am hoping that the homers keep his ownership down enough to help me gain an edge rather than just keeping up with the Joneses.  Either way, I want him in my lineups.Adam Thielen, Vikings at Eagles,  $7,400He's pretty easily my second favorite receiver this week but I am not playing him with Diggs outside of my Keenum stacks.  Thielen is obviously pricier, and in most cases, his role in the slot makes him the better floor play, especially in full PPR scoring, which is employed by DraftKings.  The thing is, Diggs is a demon after the catch, and that is where the Eagles tend to give up the big stuff. So, for me, when it's either/or, I am going with Diggs this week.Nelson Agholor, Eagles vs, Vikings, $4,800While I am basically fading the Eagles' offense, Agholor is a receiver I will consider in certain lineups constructions for three reasons. He is cost-friendly.  He should avoid being matched up with Xavier Rhodes.  He runs more quick hitting routes than most of the other Eagles receivers and that will be a big deal with Nick Foles likely to be under duress all day.  If you are playing a Foles stack, I like the idea of including Agholor.  Another good option would be Torrey Smith, who is priced at the floor ($3,000) and who has seen some targets the last few games. Smith catching a long one could be huge, but the risks are obvious.Keelan Cole, Jaguars at Patriots, $3,500He's the best combo of price and potential that I see at receiver for the Jaguars.  I actually like the Jags' receivers as a group.  I think there will be some production there.  In fact, winning these GPPs may come down to choosing the right receiver off of the Jaguars, because they are all affordable and they all have a shot at producing.  The two I am focused on are Cole and Allen Hurns. Marqise Lee and Westbrook have not been productive enough lately to pay up for.  That being said, if you are playing a lot of lineups, there's certainly merit to using all four to varying degrees.TIGHT ENDSRob Gronkowski, Patriots vs. Jaguars, $7,900It's hard to envision him as anything less than the top scorer at his position, but you obviously pay for it in a big way.  The bottom line, to me anyway, is that there are only two other players at any position who I want in my lineup as much as Gronk, so I will be rostering him in at least 75 percent of my lineups if not more.Kyle Rudolph, Vikings at Eagles, $4,500I think the Vikings can move the ball and I think Rudolph could play a part in that. He's also a great weapon near the goal line, so he's in play due to the short slate. I'm most likely to use him in tandem with Gronk rather than instead of Gronk.  I'll have him in a lot of my Case Keenum stacks.Zach Ertz, Eagles vs. Vikings, $5,300He's viable but you don't save much and I have my doubts as to how much any tight end can do against the Vikings, who have been stingy all year to the position—holding them to only 591 yards and three touchdowns during the regular season.  Foles will certainly look for him a fair amount, but the good news ends there in my view.Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars at Patriots, $2,500Going cheap somewhere is important this week if you want all of the good options in your lineups, and if I am going cheap at tight end, I'm leaning to Lewis because he has some touchdown potential and should catch a pass or two.  Other cheap tight end options worth considering are Ben Koyack and Trey Burton, but they feel too low probability for me, relative to Lewis.