Well, that's over with. The Bruins went 0-3 in the round-robin tournament and dropped from the No. 1 seed in the East to the No. 4 seed. Their first-round opponent is the Carolina Hurricanes, who are not only the highest seed among the play-in winners, but at least on paper also the best of them.
So… panic? Freak out? Expect the Bruins to be heading home early?
Not yet. Take a deep breath. Obviously none of this ideal, but the Bruins did get better as this round-robin tournament went on. Compare how they played this Sunday against Washington to how they played last Sunday against Philadelphia. There's a noticeable difference there.
They still need to be better, though. Playing well but still losing isn't going to cut it in an actual playoff series. They need to make those final improvements that are going to get them over the top and get them back to winning hockey, and they need to make them fast.
Here are five things the Bruins need to do to right the ship and beat the Hurricanes.
(Click here for the full Bruins-Hurricanes series schedule.)
1. BURY. YOUR. CHANCES.
If the Bruins buried a couple more of their grade-A chances Sunday against the Capitals, they probably would have won and fans would probably be feeling a lot better heading into the first round. But they didn't.
Instead David Pastrnak had the puck bounce away from him on one chance in close and shot into Braden Holtby's pads on another. Nick Ritchie couldn't lift the puck over a defender lying on the ice with Holtby out of position and then couldn't get off a second shot before Holtby got back in position to make the save. Charlie McAvoy got robbed by Holtby's glove. Ondrej Kase lost control of the puck on a chance in close. Brad Marchand fired over the net from point-blank range.
We've heard more than enough about poor ice conditions and players' timing being off after the long layoff and hands being rusty. None of it can be an excuse any more. Whatever is going on, the Bruins need to get past it and finish their opportunities. Other teams around the league have figured out how to score since the restart, so there's no reason the Bruins should be more affected by anything than anyone else.
The top line has been the most noticeable culprits in this department, as Marchand, Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron combined for 27 shots on goal in the three-game round-robin tournament, but zero goals. Some of that is bad luck that is bound to change on its own, but some of it is also them just not being dangerous enough around the net, which is the part they need to change themselves.
It's encouraging that they're creating these chances, but they can't afford to have their shooting stay cold any longer.
2. Start scoring on the power play
This is somewhat related to point No. 1, but it's also a separate issue because the power play's problems haven't just been about not finishing chances. They've also been about poor zone entries, about not getting their usual great looks, and about overpassing at times.
The result was an 0-for-9 showing on the man advantage in the Bruins' three round-robin games. It looked like they had started to turn the corner against the Lightning on Wednesday, as they had more time in the offensive zone, more shots, and more retrievals and second and third chances.
Sunday was a step back, though, as they mustered just one shot on goal in two opportunities. On their first power play of the game, their top unit had a brutal sequence that featured a Marchand turnover and clear followed by two straight failed entries that were easily cleared.
You expect -- and need -- a lot better from a power play that ranked second in the regular season at 25.2% and that operated at a lethal 32.4% in the playoffs last year. They can't keep letting their opponents off the hook when they take penalties.
3. Cut out the defensive mistakes
Structurally, the Bruins' defense hasn't been bad. They haven't been spending a ton of time pinned in their own zone or giving up goals at the end of long shifts spent chasing the puck or anything like that.
The problem has been mistakes, both mentally and in terms of execution, that are ending up in the back of their net. Bad breakout passes that get intercepted. Bad line changes that lead to easy neutral zone transitions and offensive zone entries. Bad pinches at the offensive blue line that lead to odd-man rushes. Getting caught flat-footed or holding onto the puck too long and turning it over. All of those have led directly to goals against over these last three games.
On Sunday, it was Zdeno Chara not being aware of his surroundings and getting his pocket picked by T.J. Oshie on the Capitals' first goal, then Jeremy Lauzon making a bad pinch that led to a near-breakaway for Tom Wilson on their second. Tuukka Rask's rebound control was also an issue on Oshie's goal, as well as the Lightning's winning goal on Wednesday, so add that to the list of things to clean up.
Similar to the lack of offensive finish, some of the reasons (excuses?) we've heard for some of these miscues -- bad ice, rust, timing being off -- aren't going to fly anymore. The first game back or even the second? Sure. But the fourth game? Or Game 1 of their upcoming series? Nope. Other teams have figured out how to clean up their games, and if the Bruins don't, they won't be hanging around the bubble too long.
4. Have the Krejci line build off an encouraging start
On Sunday we finally got to see the Jake DeBrusk-David Krejci-Ondrej Kase second line that Bruce Cassidy had been wanting to use since return-to-play camp began, but hadn't been able to thanks to Kase's nearly three-week absence.
And what we saw was encouraging. In 9:34 of five-on-five time together, the trio had advantages of 10-5 in shot attempts, 4-1 in shots on goal, and 3-1 in scoring chances. Most importantly, they scored the Bruins' lone goal on a nice buildup that involved all three of them.
Krejci made a nice breakout pass to Kase to start the rush. Kase cut to the middle and carried into the offensive zone. He then attempted one pass to DeBrusk that got knocked down, but he stuck with the play and was able to poke the puck over to DeBrusk on the second effort. And DeBrusk then made a nice play to pull the puck out of his feet and fire a quick shot that beat Holtby five-hole.
Before the game Cassidy had cautioned against judging the trio, and Kase in particular, too much based on just one game. He was probably referring more to the possibility of them struggling, but the optimism from Sunday's performance should also be cautious.
Let's not forget that after the Bruins' exhibition game against Columbus, everyone was excited about this same line but with Jack Studnicka in Kase's place. Then they struggled against the Flyers and got split up, with Studnicka getting relegated to healthy scratch status.
The Bruins can't afford one step forward, two steps back now, though. Their next game is the real thing. They need DeBrusk, Krejci and Kase to build off Sunday and keep getting better and provide consistent secondary scoring, not regress or struggle or give Cassidy a reason to think about splitting them up.
5. Contain Carolina's top line
While the Bruins' top line has struggled to score so far, the Hurricanes' top trio of Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen went off against the Rangers. They outscored the opposition 5-0 at five-on-five and added a pair of power-play goals, plus a shorthanded goal from Aho just for good measure. Aho finished the three-game series with eight points and Svechnikov had five, including a hat trick in Game 2.
One of the keys to the Bruins' sweep of the Hurricanes in the Eastern Conference finals last year was that they shut down this line. In fact, they were doing it so well, with the Bergeron line and Zdeno Chara-Charlie McAvoy pairing leading the effort, that Carolina coach Rod Brind'Amour split up the trio during Game 2 and didn't go back to it for the remainder of the series. Prior to the breakup they had been out-attempted 7-0 during even-strength play in that game.
The Bruins' top line and top pairing are sure to see a lot of this trio again, and the Bruins will hope they can at least win the matchup again, and maybe even dominate again. Don't expect it to be easy, though, as another year of experience for Carolina's young guns, not to mention a big step forward from Svechnikov in particular this year, should benefit them.
Looking at how the Bruins fared against the top lines in the round-robin, it's been a mixed bag. The Flyers' top line of Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek dominated against mostly the first and fourth lines and a lot of Chara-McAvoy, racking up a 16-5 advantage in shot attempts, 10-1 in shots on goal, and 1-0 in goals.
The B's did a little better against Tampa's Alex Killorn-Brayden Point-Nikita Kucherov line (a line that would normally have Steven Stamkos on it instead of Killorn, for what it's worth), still conceding the edge in attempts (19-12) and shots on goal (12-8), but breaking even on goals (1-1). Chara-McAvoy was again the D pairing getting the bulk of that matchup, while the fourth and second lines were the more common opponents up front rather than the first line.
Against Washington, the Bergeron line dominated the Alex Ovechkin-Nicklas Backstrom-T.J. Oshie line to the tune of a 10-3 attempts advantage and 6-2 shots on goal advantage, although neither scored a goal against each other. The Capitals' top trio did break through on a shift against the Bruins' fourth line, though, when Oshie stole a rebound off Chara's stick and buried it past Rask.
The Hurricanes are a deep team, so it's not as simple as "contain their top line and you win," but the recipe for victory does start there.
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