Bruce Cassidy wants to take a look at some different lineup options at some point during the Bruins' final 17 regular-season games.
He wants to see if Hampus Lindholm, paired with Charlie McAvoy through his first two games with Boston, can also pair with Brandon Carlo if needed. He wants to get Mike Reilly back into the lineup and see how he does playing on the right side on the third pairing. He wants to get Josh Brown, acquired from Ottawa on trade deadline day, into his first game as a Bruin. He wants to see how Marc McLaughlin, signed out of Boston College two weeks ago, looks at this level.
The problem -- and it's a good one to have -- is that his current lineup is playing so well that changing it isn't easy to do. There's value in exploring other options now before you might have to try them out of necessity in the playoffs, but there's also value in sticking with what's working and trying to climb as high in the standings as possible.
The Bruins are 14-2-1 in their last 17 games and have closed what once looked like an insurmountable gap between them and the likes of the Lightning and Maple Leafs. The three teams are separated by one point entering Tuesday's Boston-Toronto game, and getting home ice in the first round is now very much in play.
While questions about depth, especially up front, will remain, we thought it would be a worthwhile exercise to try to quantify just how good this current lineup has been. All stats are at 5-on-5 play.
First line: Brad Marchand - Patrice Bergeron - Jake DeBrusk
123 minutes, 66.3% shot attempts, 75.3% expected goals, 5-2 goal differential
Whether it's been David Pastrnak, Craig Smith or now DeBrusk on the right side, the top line has been consistently dominant in terms of possession, shot differential and scoring chances. The big difference without Pastrnak is that the line isn't scoring as many goals -- 4.12 per 60 minutes with Pastrnak vs. 2.34 with Smith and 2.43 with DeBrusk.
On the one hand, that's not surprising. While DeBrusk and Smith are both capable goal-scorers, they're not Pastrnak. On the other, the Bruins would love to see the current trio's actual goals rate get closer to their expected goals rate (3.21 per 60).
There's reason to believe it will. All three have recently gone through shooting slumps. Marchand has clearly broken out of his with five goals in the last five games. Bergeron and DeBrusk, who have each scored in one of the last two games, could be on the verge of doing the same. There have also been a few goals that came with one member of the line already changed off or not yet changed on, which doesn't count towards the numbers above.
Meanwhile, this trio has actually been the best version of the top line defensively, both in terms of actual goals against (0.97 per 60) and expected goals against (1.05 per 60).
Second line: Taylor Hall - Erik Haula - David Pastrnak
346 minutes, 55.5% shot attempts, 54.9% expected goals, 19-11 goal differential
The trade deadline came and went without Don Sweeney acquiring a center who would be an upgrade over Haula. If these three continue to play the way they've been playing for the last three months, the Bruins should be just fine.
Pastrnak's 29 goals since Jan. 1 are the most in the NHL. Hall has 35 points in 39 games during that stretch. Haula has gone from five points in his first 25 games with the Bruins to 27 in his last 37 while playing on this line, including seven in three games since the trade deadline.
The line is clearly at its best on the rush, where the trio's speed and the skill of Hall and Pastrnak in particular can really shine. But they're also working to improve their offensive-zone cycle game, which they know they'll need in the playoffs when games may not open up as much.
"I think our game's evolving," Hall said Saturday. "The next step for us, and I think we're starting to get there, is when the game gets rough and it's just a cycle game, you're gonna have to play down low. Can we produce that way and keep the pucks out of our end? I think we're trending that way."
Third line: Trent Frederic - Charlie Coyle - Craig Smith
207 minutes, 48.6% shot attempts, 50.7% expected goals, 13-2 goal differential
When this line was first put together in February during Marchand's suspension, they were playing well but not getting rewarded with goals. Eventually the goals came, and now the puck luck pendulum has probably swung too far the other way if we're being honest. They won't shoot 12.3% as a line forever, nor will they keep getting a .978 save percentage from their goaltending when they're on the ice.
No question there's a lot to like about this line, though. The attitude and physicality they bring on a nightly basis -- combined with regular offensive contributions -- have created an identity that was definitely missing from the various third-line combos Cassidy tried earlier in the season.
After scoring just six goals in his first 47 games this season while also battling injury earlier in the year, Smith has come roaring to life in March with nine goals in the last 11 games. Coyle has 18 points in the last 20 games, and his 38 points total are the most he's had in a season since 2016-17. Frederic's confidence offensively seems to be growing by the game, with better puck play and decision-making and eight points in the last 11 games.
Fourth line: Nick Foligno - Tomas Nosek - Curtis Lazar
97 minutes, 57.4% shot attempts, 63.9% expected goals, 0-4 goal differential
So, obviously what stands out here is that goal differential. And that would be concerning if the analytics lined up with that 4-0 deficit, but they don't.
While that goal differential shouldn't be completely ignored, there's some bad luck in play at both ends of the ice. Foligno has scored zero goals on his last 20 shots on goal, Nosek zero on his last 28, and Lazar zero on his last 17. We're not talking about three prolific goal-scorers here, but at some point at least a few of those chances will start going in. At the other end of the ice, their actual goals against (2.47 per 60) are more than double their expected goals against (1.08).
This is a line that's still doing some good things, like drawing two penalties in Saturday's win over the Islanders, and could end up being a really solid fourth line if they can start scoring a little. On Monday, Cassidy explained what he thinks the trio needs to do to make that happen.
"There's more to give," he said. "I'm not saying it's automatically coming, but there's pockets of games where it looks like it's right there. The next game they're not able to generate as well. I think that they have to be more connected offensively in the o-zone. Hang on to pucks a little bit longer, be a little more predictable when they get it, what they're gonna do. They're not ad-lib guys like maybe a Pastrnak or a Marshy. I think they have to be a little more -- I don't want to say regimented, because it's a fluid game -- but a little more predictable in their structure when they do get pucks, where it can go and where each other are. That's where I think they can get better."
First D pair: Hampus Lindholm - Charlie McAvoy
26 minutes, 66.1% shot attempts, 80.9% expected goals, 4-1 goal differential
It's only been two games, but the Bruins' new top pairing sure looks good so far. Lindholm and McAvoy's chemistry has been almost instantaneous, with the two complementing each other well. Both defend well, both are strong on retrievals and breakouts, and both can jump into the offense knowing the other is capable of covering for them if needed.
It's not that the Bruins' top pair wasn't good when it was Matt Grzelcyk or Mike Reilly with McAvoy; it was. Statistically, Grzelcyk-McAvoy was one of the best pairings in the NHL. It's just that the Bruins didn't love the idea of having to rely on both to hold up in tough matchups and big minutes over what they hope will be a long playoff run.
Lindholm and his 6-foot-4 frame have been there and done that, having handled a top-pairing role for two runs to the Western Conference finals with Anaheim in 2015 and 2017.
While Cassidy has said he wants to take a look at a Lindholm-Carlo pairing at some point as well, Lindholm developing chemistry with McAvoy was and is the priority. So far, so good.
Second D pair: Matt Grzelcyk - Brandon Carlo
456 minutes, 49.6% shot attempts, 54.0% expected goals, 18-14 goal differential
Those season-long numbers don't look dominant -- and they're not -- but this one comes with a caveat. The Grzelcyk-Carlo pairing got off to a horrible start this season, but has been a lot better since being reunited in the second half.
From October through December, the two had been outscored 9-3 and had a 47.3% share of shot attempts in 185 5-on-5 minutes. Since Jan. 1, the Bruins have outscored opponents 15-5 and have 51.1% of shot attempts in 271 minutes with them on the ice.
That looks much more like a second pairing, with Carlo's improved play over the last month or two an obvious difference-maker. Reilly-Carlo also looked like a good second pairing for stretches, but it's clear that Cassidy prefers Grzelcyk in that spot. At the very least, the Bruins now have options. Any of Lindholm, Grzelcyk or Reilly can play with McAvoy; Grzelcyk and Reilly both fit with Carlo too, and Lindholm could as well if or when Cassidy tries it.
"I think like anything, they're a product of our team," Cassidy said a few weeks ago when asked about Grzelcyk and Carlo's improved performance. "When the team's going better, they're getting the extra save if they do make a mistake, or the forwards are working back better for support, it all falls into place. I wouldn't say it's one thing they're doing. I think it's just our team in general is playing better hockey, so it's gonna reflect in their play, their numbers.
"Grizz might be a little cleaner than he was at the start of the year. Carlo might be a little cleaner. That matters. Playing with a little more confidence, he's getting a few more shots through now, Brandon. Maybe that affects his mindset that, 'Hey, I'm executing better.' Just a bunch of little things. I can't say it's this right here that's the difference. I just think it's a lot of different things, and I think it's a product of the success of the team too."
Third D pair: Derek Forbort - Connor Clifton
411 minutes, 54.5% shot attempts, 54.5% expected goals, 19-17 goal differential
Considering Forbort and Clifton start far more shifts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone (just 35% offensive-zone starts), you'll take those numbers all day long from your third pair.
While Reilly will bring more mobility and a better transition game to this pair whenever he gets back in the lineup, Cassidy likes the way Forbort and Clifton have been defending together, and he likes the way Clifton has been getting more involved offensively over the last week or two as well.
"He's evolved offensively, which helps," Cassidy said of Clifton. "He's getting his shot to the net. Cliffy's had some issues with blocked shots, off-net shots, which we've addressed with him -- focusing on hitting the net and creating some havoc. … He's done a better job with that. Jumped in the play in the Montreal -- good timing there. I think he hasn't hurt us with his decisions, to be very blunt about it. I think there's been times he's pinched at the wrong time.
"You're using them for a certain role, and they can't get away from that. That's Cliffy's direction that he's been given. You're a physical guy, so be physical when the situation dictates, and he has. He's done that well. That's why he's in the lineup a lot for us. Some of the other decisions that can go against him, he's done a better job making the right read at the right time."
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Is this a perfect lineup? There's probably no such thing. Is there any guarantee all four lines and all three D pairs continue playing this well into and through the playoffs? Of course not.
But when you lay it out like this and look at the numbers, that's a lot of positive shot shares, a lot of positive goal differentials, and a lot of encouraging expected goals-for percentages up and down the lineup.
That's the kind of total team play -- with everyone "pulling on the rope," as the Bruins say -- that gets you on a 14-2-1 run, has you ranking first in both 5-on-5 offense and 5-on-5 defense during that stretch, and gets you dreaming about a long playoff run.
All stats via Evolving-Hockey or Natural Stat Trick.
