With three games left in the regular season, the Bruins could still finish anywhere from first to fourth in the East Division, and could still end up facing any of the other three playoff teams in the division in the first round.
After Thursday night's action, the Penguins currently sit in first with 77 points, but they have just one more game to play. The Capitals are technically ahead of them on points percentage (.689 to .682) with 73 points and three games still to play.
The Bruins are third with 71 points and three games to go, followed by the Islanders with 68 points and two games remaining.
The Capitals have the clearest path to clinching the No. 1 seed. If they win two of their final three games in regulation (and two of those three are against the struggling and eliminated Flyers) or get five of a possible six points in any fashion, they finish first. Two regulation wins would get them to 77 points (the max that both the Penguins and Bruins could reach) and give them the first tiebreaker (regulation wins).
The Penguins could clinch the top spot by winning their final game Saturday against the Sabres and having the Capitals not do either of the two things mentioned above. While the Bruins could still catch the Penguins at 77 points by winning out, Pittsburgh would hold the tiebreaker.
So, what needs to happen for the Bruins to finish first? It's a long shot, but the most straightforward path is the Penguins lose to Buffalo on Saturday, the Capitals take no more than three of six remaining points, and the Bruins win out. Boston wraps up the regular season with the Rangers on Saturday, the Islanders on Monday, and Washington on Tuesday.
Even if they don't climb to first, the Bruins could still pass one of the Penguins or Capitals to get home ice in the opening round, but again, it would require at least one slip-up from one of those teams. While home ice won't be quite the same without full buildings, you'd still prefer to have it. Having a building that's 25% full behind you still helps and you still get last change, something that always matters more in the postseason as matchups become more important in-series.
The Bruins could also still drop behind the Islanders and finish fourth. There are a few different scenarios that get them there, but the most straightforward is the Islanders win their final two games (against the Devils and Bruins) in regulation and the Bruins take fewer than two of the remaining six points on the table.
If you had to handicap it all, the most likely outcome in terms of the final standings and first-round matchups would seem to be (1) Capitals vs. (4) Islanders and (2) Penguins vs. (3) Bruins.
But just about everything is still on the table. The Bruins could face either the Penguins or Capitals in that 2-3 series (as either the 2 or 3), they could still finish first and face the Islanders, or they could still finish fourth and face the Penguins or Capitals in the 1-4 matchup.
