The Bruins still have the best record in the NHL despite dropping to 11-1-2 with a 3-2 overtime loss to the Canadiens Saturday night in Montreal.
Bostonians are always looking for something to complain about, though, and Saturday did seem to provide an opportunity for some to take aim at two Bruins whose numbers are way down from last season: Jake DeBrusk and Hampus Lindholm.
DeBrusk was held without a point for a third straight game and landed just one shot on goal. The Boston Globe's Kevin Paul Dupont tweeted at one point during the game that DeBrusk's one goal and four assists through 14 games is "unacceptable."
Lindholm, meanwhile, got beat 1-on-1 by Josh Anderson – a good player but certainly not the most skilled forward – in the build-up to Montreal's overtime winner. He is stuck on zero goals and two assists for the season and is now a minus-1, making him one of just two Bruins defensemen to be a minus this year (the other being rookie Mason Lohrei, also a minus-1).
So, how concerned should the Bruins be about DeBrusk and Lindholm? Are they playing bad hockey? Having bad luck? Both? Let's dig into each.
Jake DeBrusk
DeBrusk had a career-high 27 goals and 50 points last season in just 64 games. Currently, he is on pace for six goals and 29 points this season. Needless to say, it would be an enormous disappointment if he ended up with numbers anywhere close to that – for the Bruins and for DeBrusk, who is in a contract year. Unacceptable even, to use Dupont's word.
It would be hard to argue that DeBrusk's all-around game has been "unacceptable," though. It should be pretty clear to anyone watching the games that he's working hard at both ends of the ice and making some good things happen. At least to this point, this does not look the same as when Bruce Cassidy was healthy-scratching him a couple years ago because his details and two-way play had dropped off along with the scoring.
Jim Montgomery seems to agree, because not only is he playing DeBrusk, but he's giving him significant minutes. His 17:30 average time on ice ranks fourth among Bruins forwards behind only the top line of Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. He played 19:36 Saturday night. That wouldn't be happening if Montgomery thought DeBrusk's play was in any way unacceptable. Montgomery did, of course, scratch DeBrusk for disciplinary reasons earlier this season (DeBrusk was late to a team meeting), but that was not followed by any sort of reduced role or lingering punishment.
Even with DeBrusk not scoring much himself, the Bruins are outscoring opponents 7-2 when he's on the ice at 5-on-5. Zacha (+6) is the only Bruins forward with a better 5-on-5 goal differential. DeBrusk's 58.2% expected goals-for percentage is the best mark on the team, which again supports the notion that a lot more good than bad is happening when he's on the ice.
DeBrusk is still getting 5-on-5 chances, too. His 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes, 9.77 scoring chances per 60, and 16.64 shot attempts per 60 are all pretty much right in line with last season (1.03, 10.38 and 16.56, respectively). While he was credited with just one shot on goal Saturday, he did also hit a post.
He's setting up teammates as well. In fact, DeBrusk's 1.45 5-on-5 assists per 60 would be a career-best mark. On Saturday, he sprung Pastrnak and Danton Heinen on odd-man rushes with a pair of nice transition passes, but neither could finish their chances.
So, why isn't the point total there? The biggest reason is that DeBrusk has had absolutely rotten shooting luck. He has one goal on 29 shots on goal, a 3.4% shooting percentage. His career average is 12.6%. Even if nothing else changes, that percentage is pretty much guaranteed to go up, which means DeBrusk is pretty much guaranteed to score a lot more than six goals.
There have been some notable changes in DeBrusk's role, too. Last year, he was locked into a line with Marchand and Patrice Bergeron pretty much all season. This year, he (and pretty much every other Bruins forward) has bounced all over the lineup as Montgomery tries to find combinations that work. He might have something in teaming DeBrusk with rookie center Matt Poitras, though. Whether it's been Heinen or Morgan Geekie (currently out injured) on their wing, the Bruins have a 65.3% expected goals share in the 62 minutes DeBrusk and Poitras have been together, which is much better than either's mark when they're apart, and have outscored opponents 3-0.
DeBrusk also got dropped from the top power-play unit last season to the second unit this year with James van Riemsdyk joining the team. As a result, he's getting about half as much power-play time (2:56 per game last year to 1:32 this year). DeBrusk had a career-high 14 power-play points last season, a number he certainly won't repeat if he remains in a reduced role. And as the power-play time has gone down, his penalty-kill time has gone up, from 1:22 per game last year to 2:04 this season. That's every bit as important to team success, but obviously less conducive to points.
Hampus Lindholm
Like DeBrusk, Lindholm had a career high in points last season with 53 (10 goals, 43 assists). He also led the NHL in plus/minus (+49) and finished fourth in Norris Trophy voting. This year, he's on pace for 12 points and zero Norris consideration.
Unlike DeBrusk, both the eye test and the analytics tell us that Lindholm is legitimately less involved offensively than he was last season. He's taking fewer shots (10.51 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 last year vs. 9.18 this year). He's getting fewer scoring chances (3.78 per 60 to 2.59) and high-danger chances (0.83 per 60 to 0.47). And he's not getting his shot on net nearly as much when he does shoot, dropping from a 52.7% shot-through percentage last year to 36.0% percent this year. That, of course, means not just fewer opportunities to score himself, but also fewer opportunities to pick up assists on deflections and rebounds.
It does have to be noted, though, that Lindholm is pretty clearly in a defense-first role this season. Montgomery is using him and Brandon Carlo as his shutdown pair, consistently sending them out against opponents' top lines and loading them up with defensive-zone starts. Lindholm currently has the lowest offensive-zone start percentage of his career at 38.75%.
Lindholm did eventually end up in that kind of role last season, too, but he started the year in a much more offensive role – including being on the top power-play unit – while Charlie McAvoy was out due to shoulder surgery, and that was when he was at his hottest offensively. When McAvoy was just suspended for four games, Lindholm did not get PP1 time, with Montgomery opting to move Kevin Shattenkirk up instead since Lindholm was already getting so many minutes in other situations.
Lindholm continues to do the shutdown part well. The Bruins are giving up fewer goals (1.41 per 60 minutes) and high-danger chances (9.65 per 60) when he's on the ice this season than they did last year (1.56 and 10.99). He's a key part of the league's No. 2 penalty kill. And, at least according to the NHL's official stats, he's turning the puck over less (1.18 giveaways per 60 this year vs. 2.26 last year). The NHL's stats on things like giveaways, takeaways and hits should be taken with a pound of salt because they're tracked inconsistently, but that's a pretty big difference nonetheless.
The Bruins are still outscoring opponents 9-6 during Lindholm's 5-on-5 shifts (remember: plus/minus is not the same as 5-on-5 goal differential). His 55.4% expected goals-for percentage is tops among Bruins defensemen and third on the team behind only DeBrusk and van Riemsdyk. Like DeBrusk, more good than bad is happening when Lindholm is on the ice.
One last note on the negative side of things, though: While again acknowledging that these stats are flawed, Lindholm has only been credited with three hits in 14 games. For his career, he averages right around a hit per game, including 78 in 80 games last season. It's not the most important part of his game, but it's probably fair to say Lindholm could and should be more physical than he's been so far.
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So, what's the conclusion here? Well, neither DeBrusk nor Lindholm has been bad. They're both still helping the Bruins win games, and Boston is winning games at a higher rate than any other team.
But both are going to need to put up more points at some point. The Bruins aren't deep enough offensively to be a strong offensive team without them. DeBrusk's underlying offensive numbers are more encouraging than Lindholm's and suggest that a breakthrough could be coming soon. Lindholm probably has more work to do when it comes to figuring out how to get involved offensively while being used in such a defensive role.
Some concern over the offense is warranted in both cases, but the defensive and two-way games remaining strong should limit the overall concern level.
All stats via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com or Hockey-Reference.
