The Bruins finally suffered their first regulation loss of the season on Saturday, falling 5-4 to the Red Wings in Detroit.
It was a frustrating night that saw the Bruins blow an early 2-0 lead and a 3-2 third-period lead. Linus Ullmark wasn't at his best, and the absence of three regular defensemen was much more noticeable than it was in Thursday's win over the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Bruins gave up five goals for the first time this season, and it was actually just the second time they even allowed more than two. It was the first time they gave up three 5-on-5 goals and the first time they surrendered two power-play goals. They took a season-high 12 penalties, some of which were extremely questionable calls, to say the least (including the two that led to power-play goals against).
In the bigger picture, Saturday looks like an outlier for these Bruins, although it will certainly be interesting to see how they respond Monday night against a very good Dallas Stars team, especially with at least Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk still out (Derek Forbort remains day-to-day).
The Bruins still have the second-best record in the NHL at 9-1-1, trailing only the defending Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights, who improved to 11-0-1 with a 7-0 statement win over the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday. Boston's plus-15 goal differential ranks third behind Vegas and Vancouver (both plus-26).
It seems like a good time to take stock of just how good this Bruins team is. They're still off to a much better start than anyone could have predicted following the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci and the loss of key players like Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi, Nick Foligno and Dmitry Orlov to trades or free agency.
Are they really the best team in the Eastern Conference and one of the best teams in the league once again, even after so much turnover?
Let's break it down, starting with an area where the Bruins clearly remain elite, despite Ullmark's off night Saturday: Goaltending. After an offseason of rumors and speculation about whether they would trade one of their goalies, the Bruins ultimately decided to run it back with Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman after their historically great tandem work last season.
Well, they're looking pretty great against this season, especially Swayman. Swayman is 5-0-0 with a league-leading .954 save percentage and 1.38 goals-against average. Even after Saturday, Ullmark is 4-1-1 and ranks top-10 in save percentage (.926) and GAA (2.30). The duo once again have the Bruins leading the NHL in team save percentage (.938) and goals against (1.91 per game), which is even better than their .929 and 2.12 marks last season.
In front of the goalies, the Bruins are once again solid defensively, especially pre-McAvoy suspension. They rank 12th in scoring chances against (27.02 per 60 minutes), eighth in high-danger chances against (10.47/60), and ninth in expected goals against (2.48/60). Those numbers are pretty much right in line with where the Bruins were last season, and there's even been an improvement in the high-danger chances, which are down from 11.19 per 60 last year.
Like goaltending, defense needed to be a strength again, and so far it has been. The combination of the two has enabled the Bruins to again have an elite penalty kill, one that ranks second in the NHL at 93.6% even after giving up a pair of goals on eight Detroit man advantages Saturday.
Now, the offense. This is where the Bruins had the most turnover and the most question marks. It's also where a surface-level look at the stats shows the biggest difference from last season. The Bruins are averaging 3.18 goals per game this season, which ranks 16th in the NHL. Last year, they averaged 3.67 goals per game, second-most in the league. It's a similar drop in 5-on-5 offense, from 3.10 goals per 60 minutes last season to 2.68 this year.
That might all be unsurprising and perhaps discouraging, but a deeper dive reveals some reasons for a little bit of optimism. At 5-on-5 play, the Bruins are actually creating slightly more scoring chances (30.18 per 60), high-danger chances (12.90 per 60) and expected goals (2.83 per 60) this year than last year. A big reason for that is that the Bruins are winning more battles at the net-front, something coach Jim Montgomery has made a major point of emphasis since the start of training camp.
Montgomery is happy with that part of his team's game, and sees a lot of room for growth elsewhere offensively.
"We have to play faster, especially offensively," Montgomery said Friday. "...Our net-front has been vastly improved from last year, something we've been focusing on. I think that our forecheck is something we've been focusing on, just because I think we need to be a forechecking team. The rush needs to get better. And that's where I say we play slow.
"We're starting to see it in the last couple of games. Breakouts, neutral-zone counters, we're playing a little bit faster. I think [Thursday vs. Toronto] was our best offensive game as a team 5-on-5. So, we're starting to see it come, but those are areas that we need to see better in our process for us to be able to become a better offensive team."
The power play also has to improve. After a 1-for-4 showing Saturday, the Bruins are converting on 16.7% of their man advantages this season, which ranks 21st in the NHL. The talent is there, especially on the top unit, but the execution has not been. If the power play starts to come around, and the Bruins also pick up the pace 5-on-5 like Montgomery wants, it's not hard to imagine them scoring more goals and climbing the league ranks, even if it's unlikely they ever get to the top this season.
But if the Bruins can grow into, say, a top-10 offense while also continuing to give up the fewest goals in the league, then they are going to continue to win a lot of games. It won't continue to be at an .864 points percentage clip, and they almost certainly won't challenge last year's 65 wins, but competing for first place in the Atlantic Division and challenging for the top seed in the Eastern Conference certainly looks possible once again.
And if all you care about is playoff success, then the fact that the Bruins are getting tested in closer, lower-scoring, grittier games could bode well since that is closer to the style of play you tend to see in the playoffs.
Early on this season, the Bruins' success came with the fair caveat that they had a relatively easy schedule out of the gate. But the schedule has gotten tougher over the last week and they continued to rack up points before Saturday, notching three straight wins over divisional rivals Detroit, Florida and Toronto.
The Bruins' strong start to this season doesn't look fluky when you dive into how they're doing it. Overall, they've been a good – not dominant, but good – defensive team and 5-on-5 team. There is still work to do offensively for sure. They are probably more reliant on their goaltending than some other top teams, but that goaltending is also a proven commodity, at least in the regular season.
Maybe they're not as good on paper as last year, but these Bruins may very well still be one of the top teams in the NHL, just like their record says they are.
