What direction are the Boston Bruins going? That depends on who you ask.
The Bruins themselves believe they are on the rise, and understandably so. They'll cite their 24-point improvement from 2024-25, when they missed the playoffs and sold at the trade deadline, to 2025-26, when they finished with 100 points and returned to the postseason after one year away.
They'll cite the integration of young players who are expected to make an impact for years to come, starting with Fraser Minten and Marat Khusnutdinov last year and continuing with at least James Hagens this year, and possibly Frederic Brunet, Matt Poitras and Dans Locmelis as well. Their big summer acquisition, skilled winger JJ Peterka, is only 24 as well.
They'll cite the comfort that comes with players knowing coach Marco Sturm's system much better now than they did when he took over last summer.
"The steps I think our group took last year, the additions that we look forward to implementing this year, we're going to obviously have some younger players that are going to test some opportunity," general manager Don Sweeney said at the start of training camp. "We've got a coach that's got his hands firmly on the wheel now after a full season and a successful season
getting us back into the playoffs, and our group is excited. … We're looking to take the next steps."
That's the feeling and the vibes in the building. But then there's another, more pessimistic outlook to be found in analytics-based projection models, most of which highlight the Bruins as a team prime for regression.
For instance, The Athletic just last week named the Bruins one of six teams "most likely to take a step backward." Their internal projection model has the Bruins finishing with just 87 points, eight points away from the playoff cut line. Hockeystats.com, another analytics-based site, is a little friendlier, but still has Boston at 92 points and with just a 35% chance to make the playoffs. MoneyPuck similarly has the Bruins at 93 points and a 39% chance. The skepticism extends to NHL.com, where only five of 14 staff writers are picking Boston to make the playoffs.
Make no mistake: There is a strong case for the Bruins to regress. They ranked just 28th in 5-on-5 expected goals-for percentage (46.7%) last season. They ranked 24th in high-danger chances created and 28th in high-danger chances allowed. Their power play was good (9th in the NHL), but their penalty kill was not (24th). Neither was their discipline, as they took the second-most penalties in the league.
Despite the poor analytics, the Bruins still ranked fourth in 5-on-5 goal differential (+32), thanks in large part to the fact that they ranked top five in both team shooting percentage and team save percentage. The analytics community would tell you that the combination of a high shooting percentage and high save percentage is often not sustainable from one year to the next.
The Bruins do have some reason to believe they can continue to defy what's "expected," though. For starters, they believe Jeremy Swayman will be one of the best goalies in the NHL once again after a Vezina finalist season that saw him rank second in the NHL in goals saved above expected. They also believe Michael DiPietro is ready to be a quality backup for 25-30 starts, a belief that was reinforced by DiPietro's excellent preseason.
They also believe they have some sharpshooters up front who can continue to finish at a high clip. Morgan Geekie, who led the team with 39 goals last year, has topped 20% shooting in back-to-back seasons. Pavel Zacha's 22.9% is probably not sustainable given it's well above his career average (13.1%), but David Pastrnak's 11.1% could absolutely tick up a few notches as he looks to return to 40-goal form. Peterka brings a dangerous shot as well, and has topped 15% finishing in back-to-back seasons. Hagens has a very good shot, too, although how effectively he's able to use it as a rookie remains to be seen.
Asked about the team's "expected" numbers on Friday, Sturm defended what the Bruins accomplished last season, but also acknowledged they want and expect to be better this year.
"Well, it's a hard question, because end of the day, I think I remember we were eighth in the league," Sturm said. "I leave it like that. We did a lot of good things as a coaching staff. We always want to try to get better, but overall, I think we all should be very happy and very proud of what we accomplished last year. Having said that, we want to improve, we want to get better again this year. Doesn't mean we're going to get more points, but we're going to do everything in our power to do that."
When it comes to specific areas Sturm wants to improve, he highlighted two: better breakouts in the defensive zone, and more possession in the offensive zone. The two are connected in Sturm's mind.
"We definitely want to be cleaner starting our breakouts," Sturm said. "I think we want the puck more – most of the time in the offensive zone, so we spend less time in the D-zone. For me, O-zone always starts from our breakouts, our entries going into the O-zone. I think there's a pattern to it where we can definitely keep more pucks, get cleaner out, spend more time in the offensive zone instead of the D-zone."
If the Bruins do that, all those advanced metrics will improve with it, and those various models won't be as skeptical of them. Better breakouts and better offensive-zone possession means more offensive opportunity and less time defending. Scoring chances are easier to come by if you put more pressure on your opponent's defense. They're easier to prevent if your defensive-zone retrievals and breakouts are clean. If they don't make those improvements, their doubters may very well be right about them.
As much as the Bruins like their goaltending and sharpshooting, they know they can't follow the exact same formula as last season – especially not if they want to get further than the first round. Whether the Bruins are going to be better than last season, or even just as good, will come down to just how much they actually do improve in those key areas identified by Sturm.
