After their longest offseason in 10 years (171 days between games), the Celtics return to action Tuesday against the Detroit Pistons in a first-of-its-kind 3 p.m. matinee to kick off the NBA season.
When the Celtics take the floor at Little Caesars Arena for the first time this season, they’ll look much different than they did when they last played.
Jaylen Brown, who has played more combined regular-season and postseason games than any Celtics player over the last 20 years (816), won’t be there. Instead, he’ll be preparing to make his debut as a Philadelphia 76er.
Veterans Paul George, acquired in the Brown trade, Mitchell Robinson, who signed a three-year, $47.4 million deal in free agency, and Mike Conley, another free-agent addition, will be among the new faces on Boston’s bench.
With so many changes, what can we expect from this year’s Celtics? Here are a few bold predictions ahead of Tuesday’s season opener.
The Celtics finish as the top seed in the Eastern Conference
Under head coach Joe Mazzulla, the Celtics have been an elite regular-season team.
Since Mazzulla took over, the Celtics have won at least 56 games in each of his four seasons, totaling 238 wins and posting the best record in basketball over that stretch at 238-90. They also haven’t finished lower than the second seed.
Sure, the Eastern Conference is better, but there are still plenty of questions surrounding the teams expected to take a step forward.
Plus, the Celtics have a deep roster, perhaps one of the deepest in the league, which should be a key to their regular-season success.
Jayson Tatum is fully healthy (more on that in a minute). Paul George is in a situation tailor-made for his playstyle. Mitchell Robinson gives the Celtics a significant upgrade in the frontcourt alongside Neemias Queta and Luka Garza, both of whom were effective in the regular season last year. The young wings — Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez, Jordan Walsh and Ron Harper, who all impressed in preseason — are coming off a year of development and will look to take another step forward. Sam Hauser remains as steady as they come offensively, and this author expects a big year from Payton Pritchard and a bounce-back shooting season from Derrick White, who was just First-Team All-Defense.
The Celtics have a formula that has consistently produced regular-season wins, and they’ve built a roster designed to maximize it. Even with the changes, expect Boston to remain one of the NBA’s most dominant regular-season teams.
Jayson Tatum makes First Team All-NBA again and has his highest MVP finish
At his end-of-season press conference last year, Jayson Tatum estimated that he was “80-85%” of himself.
For someone who was only 80-85%, he looked pretty, pretty good.
In 16 games last season, Tatum averaged 21.8 points, 10.0 rebounds (a career high), 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals. It marked the first time in his career that he averaged a double-double, albeit in a smaller sample. He was one of just three players — alongside Jalen Johnson and Nikola Jokic — to average at least 21 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists over that span. Both Jokic (First Team) and Johnson (Third Team) earned All-NBA honors.
Tatum recorded 10 double-doubles, ranking among the top 10 in total rebounds following his return. He also added a triple-double. The Celtics went 13-3 with him in the lineup, outscoring opponents by 118 points with him on the floor.
Not bad for a player who wasn’t fully healthy.
Now, after a full offseason to recover and ramp back up, Tatum is poised to return to where he stood in each of the four seasons before suffering his Achilles injury: First Team All-NBA.
This is Tatum’s team, and the Celtics are built to lean on him and maximize his impact more than ever. That should be enough to earn him another All-NBA nod. And if we want to take it a step further, Tatum could finish in the top three in MVP voting for the first time in his career.
Payton Pritchard joins Kevin McHale as the only Celtics to win Sixth Man of the Year multiple times
I expect Payton Pritchard to come off the bench this season. If he doesn’t, well, we can only hope to go 4-for-5 on these predictions.
Assuming Pritchard does come off the bench, he could become just the second Celtics player to win multiple Sixth Man of the Year Awards, joining Kevin McHale (1984, 1985). It’s a feat that has been accomplished just five times in NBA history, with Lou Williams and Jamal Crawford winning the award three times apiece and Detlef Schrempf, Ricky Pierce and McHale winning it twice.
Had Pritchard not started 50 games last season, he likely would have been the favorite to win the award.
In 29 games as a reserve, Pritchard averaged 17.2 points on 47.7% shooting from the field and 42.9% from three-point range, along with 5.0 assists and 3.3 rebounds. His seven 25-point games off the bench led all reserves, while his two 30-point outings were tied for the most in the league.
From the moment he returned to a reserve role, he led all bench players in points (499), field goals made (188), 3-pointers made (87), assists (145), and plus-minus (+228).
Regardless of whether he starts, Pritchard is going to play… and play a lot.
During his Sixth Man of the Year campaign in 2024-25, Pritchard logged 2,166 minutes off the bench. He was the only reserve to surpass 2,000 minutes, with San Antonio’s Keldon Johnson ranking second at 1,838, 328 fewer than Pritchard.
Last season, Pritchard averaged nearly the same number of minutes as a starter (32.8) as he did coming off the bench (31.6).
That kind of production should put him in a strong position to win the award again, especially as he takes on more offensive responsibility following the Jaylen Brown trade. With that expanded role, the 28-year-old, fresh off a contract extension, has a good chance to set career highs in both points and assists for the third consecutive season, surpassing last season’s marks of 17.0 points and 5.2 assists per game.
The Celtics will have a top-five offense and defense
Under Joe Mazzulla, the Celtics have finished in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating in each of his four seasons. Last season, Boston and the San Antonio Spurs were the only teams to finish in the top five in offensive rating (second), defensive rating (fourth), and net rating (fourth).
I expect that to continue this season.
Offensively, the Celtics should continue to be one of the NBA’s best offensive rebounding teams, take care of the ball, and shoot a ton of three-pointers.
Their offseason moves only reinforce that identity.
Mitchell Robinson is one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. His 20.1% offensive rebounding percentage led the NBA last season, while his 4.2 offensive rebounds per game ranked second among players who appeared in at least 40 games, behind Portland’s Donovan Clingan (4.5). Robinson also led the league in total rebounds per 36 minutes (16.1), offensive rebounds per 36 minutes (7.7), total rebounds per 100 possessions (22.2) and offensive rebounds per 100 possessions (10.6).
Pair him with Neemias Queta and Luka Garza, both strong offensive rebounders in their own right, and the young wings crashing the glass from the corners, and Boston should generate plenty of second-chance opportunities.
The Celtics should also continue to let it fly from beyond the arc. Jaylen Brown led the NBA in 2-point field goal attempts last season (1,139), but Boston has replaced him with Paul George, who took 49.7% of his shots from 3-point range last season (255 of 513). Tatum’s presence will also create open looks for his teammates, and this roster is full of players who are comfortable shooting from deep.
Defensively, there should be very few weaknesses. Derrick White has finished in the top 10 in Defensive Player of the Year voting in each of the last three seasons. Tatum provides elite defensive versatility and rebounding, while George is a four-time All-Defensive selection who can make an impact both on and off the ball. Robinson and Queta give Boston two high-level rim protectors, and the young wings bring plenty of energy and toughness on the defensive end.
I also expect the Celtics to force more turnovers while continuing to rebound at a high level. Put it all together, and Boston has the identity and personnel to finish in the top five defensively once again.
Paul George will be an All-Star
We said bold, right? How about 36-year-old Paul George making the All-Star team?
Let me explain.
For starters, given the regular-season success I expect the Celtics to have, as outlined in this piece, Boston should be in the mix for two All-Star selections.
So how did I land on George?
Of course, as with any conversation about George, the biggest caveat is his health. Since being traded from Oklahoma City to the Clippers ahead of the 2019-20 season, George has appeared in more than 50 games just three times. He played only 78 games over two seasons in Philadelphia.
But what happened in those three seasons, including as recently as 2023-24 (74 games), when George played more than 50 games?
He was an All-Star every time (2020-21, 2022-23 and 2023-24).
Judging by his comments and what we’ve seen throughout training camp and the preseason, George appears healthy and motivated.
“To hear that ‘he’s not capable of this’ or ‘he’s washed,’ it’s funny, but it’s frustrating, because I’m still capable of doing those things when healthy, and I feel like my body is back healthy,” George said on media day. “I feel I’m capable of doing those things again. It’s more so, from a personal standpoint, it’s not about going out and trying to drop 30 every night. I think it’s more so about being available, being efficient, being consistent, and I think, again, for myself, just proving that, when healthy, I’m able to do what I’ve done in my career. I don’t judge it off of what I’ve done while being injured. It’s two different tales.”
When healthy, George can still be a high-level player on both ends of the floor. Celtics fans saw that firsthand in the playoffs last May. In Boston, he’s also in a situation that should allow him to thrive alongside Jayson Tatum, one of the most talented teammates he’s played with.
Ultimately, it all comes down to health. In nine of the 11 seasons in which George played at least 50 games, he earned an All-Star selection.
Perhaps a change of scenery and the peace of mind that comes with it can help George get back to that level. If he stays healthy, an All-Star appearance is well within reach.
