Two days after an eight-point loss to the Atlanta Hawks in Game 3 of the first round, the Boston Celtics won Game 4 by eight points and covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Four days later in Game 6 on April 27, two days after a Game 5 loss, the Celtics clinched the series with another eight-point win. And they covered the spread by one point.
It was the continuation of a regular-season trend for the Celtics; they have a high margin of victory but a low margin of cover against the spread after a loss.
In regular-season games after a loss, the Celtics' average final-score margin was nearly +6 points — second-best in the NBA, only behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. But their average margin of cover was +0.1 — tied for 16th-best.
After a loss, the Celtics were good at winning (.640 outright winning percentage), winning by a lot — 10 of their 16 regular-season post-loss wins came by at least 10 points — and keeping it close when they lost. Only three of their nine post-loss losses came by more than five points.
However, they were average against the spread after a loss — 12-12-1 (.500) — and average in covering by a large margin. While cover margin doesn't matter in cashing NBA spread bets, historically, teams with a low cover margin struggle to string together ATS wins.
For context, for all NBA teams during the regular season, the post-loss winning percentage was .469, and post-loss ATS winning percentage was .497.
As of Tuesday's NBA odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Celtics are a big spread (-9.5) and moneyline (-450) favorite against the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 2 as they look to avoid an 0-2 hole.
