While it’s an unlikely and borderline unbelievable path at this point, the Patriots still have a puncher’s chance at reaching the postseason. But, any road to playoff action almost certainly has to include a victory over the four-win Cardinals on Monday Night Football.
Arizona, a playoff squad a year ago, isn’t a very good football team right now. Like New England, there seems to be some disconnect between their quarterback, Kyler Murray, and his coaching staff led by Kliff Kingsbury.
Defensively, the Cardinals are near the bottom of the league in most categories.
Make no mistake, this is a winnable game for New England.
But it’s not without its pitfalls for the Patriots. Bill Belichick’s team hasn’t been consistently good enough in any area this season to pencil in a victory regardless of the opponent.
Yes, New England is the slight road favorite. Yes, there is a clear way for the Patriots keep their playoff hopes alive for now. All it will take is some good ol’ fashioned complementary football with improved execution in all three areas.
Here’s a look at five key steps toward a Patriots victory on Monday Night Football in Arizona, a clear must-win game for Mac Jones & Co.
1 – Protect Mac: Everything New England does offensively, at least through the air, starts with the offensive line putting forth a competitive performance. Isaiah Wynn is out once again. Both Trent Brown and Yodny Cajuste are questionable. So the makeup of the line remains a bit uncertain.
Regardless of who’s in front of him, Jones needs the time to work and the confidence to do his part. The Cardinals don’t have as impressive a front as New England has seen from other opponents over the last month. But J.J. Watt (6.5 sacks) can still be a challenge. This, though, is really about the Patriots line putting up a fight regardless of the matchups, to give Jones and his skill guys time to take advantage of what is a very suspect defense in a lot of areas. If the guys in the trenches do their jobs it’s a safe bet the Patriots will be able to move the ball and score some points.
2 – Corral Kyler: One of the clear issues for the Patriots defense this season has been dealing with mobile QBs. It was understandable when it was Lamar Jackson. It was regrettable when it was Justin Fields leading the stunning upset at Gillette. Murray is indeed dangerous with his fast feet. But he’s hesitant to be the running centerpiece of the Cards’ attack. Murray averages more than 6 yards per carry when he does take off, ranking second on Arizona with 415 yards on the season. If he and the Cards are all-in to win, they’d likely draw up a few more designed runs for their star QB. Regardless of whether they are designed runs or scramble plays, New England must meet the challenge that Murray presents. That means guys like Matthew Judon, Josh Uche and Deatrich Wise Jr. must be controlled in their pass rush and not give Murray lanes to make big plays with his feet.
3 – Stop (slow?) D-Hop: The second obvious weakness for the New England defense of late has been dealing with opposing No. 1 receivers.
Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs did their damage in recent weeks. DeAndre Hopkins has been making plenty of catches for the Cards since returning from his season-opening suspension. Compounding the matchup is the fact that the Patriots will be without Jalen Mills yet again. Marquise Brown is also a dangerous threat now that he’s back from IR, so New England can’t just sell out to stop Hopkins. Jonathan Jones has had his ups and downs stepping into a bigger role on the outside, but another challenge from another high-end No. 1 receiver will once again test his limits. Jack Jones could also continue to be counted on for key reps. If the Murray-to-Hopkins connection is clicking – the veteran receiver has had 12 or more targets in four of his six games since returning from suspension – it could be another long night for the New England secondary.
4 – Stevenson’s time to shine: There have been few consistent highlights on the New England offense this season, but the list start with second-year running back Rhamondre Stevenson. With top receiver Jakobi Meyers missing the Arizona game due to concussion, Stevenson should be the first option for the Patriots offensive attack. Stevenson has become a dual-threat in the backfield, producing on the ground and through the air. His efforts in the passing game have actually been more consistent of late, Jones checking down or throwing screens to his young back with frequency. The Cardinals have the NFL’s worst red zone defense, second-worst scoring defense and are 28th on third down defense. Arizona allows 4.6 yards per carry on the ground. It’s a night where Jones should be able to keep drives going more consistently and theoretically end them with touchdowns. To do that, he’ll need his weapons to step up and make plays and that starts with getting Stevenson going both through the air and on the ground. Stevenson has earned the right to be the centerpiece of the offense down the stretch and that starts against a pretty suspect Cardinals defense on Monday night.
5 – Start fast: The Patriots have scored just 32 points in the first quarter this season. That’s not good. But the Cardinals have scored just 29 points in the first quarter through their 12 games. Whichever team gets off to a better start could play the game from ahead and on its terms. New England has scored first-quarter touchdowns in each of its last two games, so its early-game offense has been improving even in losing efforts. Getting on the scoreboard early in Arizona would be a nice way to build a little momentum for a team that’s been scuffling a bit in that area. It might also put a little pressure on the home squad that has just one home win all season. The Patriots aren’t a team built to come back, even against a bad defense, and haven’t shown the ability to execute all that well late in games, so getting off to a fast start would be a big step in the right direction for New England.
Prediction Time: New England’s realistic playoff hopes are hanging in the balance. Wining in Arizona against a pretty suspect Cardinals team is a must if the rest of the schedule is to have much meaning. The Cardinals are terrible on defense and inconsistent on offense. Murray and Hopkins are dangerous and play into New England’s biggest defensive deficiencies. But at the very least Jones and Co. should be able to move the ball and score points more consistently than they have for much of the season. It’s not ideal to hit such a matchup without top receiving target Meyers, but others like DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne or Nelson Agholor will need to pick up the slack. New England’s offense has done little to earn the benefit of the doubt this season, but there is no better time and no better defense to step up to the challenge than Monday night against the Cardinals. Both teams should score some points. Both defenses will probably make mistakes. Turnovers will be critical, an area where New England has been solid over the second half of the season. In the end we’ll go with Belichick’s Patriots to make just enough plays for the 27-24 win. But it probably won’t be easy, because so little seems to come easy for New England this season.
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