1 – For the bulk of two-plus decades of Bill Belichick’s leadership, New England has been the center of the football world. The Patriots were THE franchise in THE sport. Winning. Super Bowls. Superstar Hall of Fame talents. Patriot Nation had it all and was firmly located on top of the world.
Now, though, heading into Sunday’s 2023 season finale against the Jets at Gillette Stadium, New England is the center of the football world for very different reasons. The matchup with New York could very well be the last for Belichick leading the Patriots organization, a four-win season bottoming out what has been a 4-year downward spiral for the franchise since Tom Brady’s departure.
On the field, the Patriots play the Jets with both teams in line for a top-10 pick in April’s draft, New England still having a shot at the No. 2 overall pick with a loss to New York and some help in the scoreboard-watching department. Draft status – and whether the team can land a franchise QB – will play a key role in the future of the franchise in Foxborough.
But even bigger than that is the status of Belichick. If he’s indeed no longer going to be the coach in New England – a divorce that could end in firing, trade or much reported mutual parting of the ways – it will certainly be a completely new era for the Kraft family. No more ties to the dynasty days of Brady and Belichick. No more pointing to “last 25 years” for credibility.
Nope, it will be total rebuild time for the team. And it may also be time for Belichick to prove he’s still got it in terms of an ability lead a different team that can reside near the top of the standings. By most reports, if Belichick wants to continue to coaching he will receive interest from teams across the NFL landscape, including a flurry of speculation about the Falcons. Can he still get the job done? Can he find a soft landing spot to add to his legendary resume the way Brady did?
All eyes will be on New England for Sunday’s season finale hosting the Jets, but not for the action that will take place on a snow-covered Gillette Stadium turf. Nearly a quarter-century of unprecedented success led by Belichick looks like it’s coming to an end as one of the greatest coaches in sports history and one of the great franchises in sports history run it out there for what is very likely one last time together. One way or another, history is unfolding before our eager eyes.
2 – If Sunday is actually Belichick’s final game as the Patriots head coach – information that could become clear in the hours after the final whistle against New York heading toward the reported Monday meeting between the coach and his Kraft family bosses – attention in New England will swiftly and necessarily shift toward a replacement. In-house option Jerod Mayo is the most obvious candidate. Less than a year ago Robert Kraft raved about Mayo’s future as a head coach, admitting that he hoped the success came in New England. Now, that opportunity may actually exist. Mayo spoke openly this week of his desire to be a head coach and also spoke like a man differentiating himself from Belichick. If Mayo made sense to Kraft last winter when he worked to retain the assistant and former All-Pro player he should still make sense now, almost regardless of what transpired this disappointing season necessitating a sped-up time line in moving on from Belichick. Mayo is the preferred replacement option here.
But if Kraft isn’t as set on Mayo as he may previously have been, there is another big-name, big-swing option to consider in the form of Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh brings both upside and baggage to the mix.
His ability to right the ship has been proven in both college (San Diego, Stanford, Michigan) and the NFL (San Francisco). He may not be in it for the longest of hauls, but he would bring instant bounce-back credibility and expectations to any NFL job he takes. Harbaugh is certainly not the new-age offensive mind that many seem to covet, but it’s hard to argue with his success over the years as a program builder. The last couple times the Patriots were as downtrodden as they are now it took a big name coach with big name expectations and ego to turn things around. Harbaugh fits that mold now, like him or not.
3 – Mayo and Harbaugh certainly won’t be the only options Kraft will have if Belichick is sent packing. Recent reports have indicated that former Patriots linebacker and newly-inducted team Hall of Famer Mike Vrabel’s status in Tennessee is less than certain. If he’s available – either by firing or via trade – he has to at last be a consideration.
Then there are the names of recent Belichick assistants that keep being bandied about in the media, especially by NFL Network. Josh McDaniels had another tough run as a head coach, this time flaming out fast in Las Vegas. But he clearly has done his best work in New England in the past.
And current Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores worked his way up the ranks with the Patriots, time both in the personnel department and as an assistant coach. His tenure as a head coach in Miami was interesting to say the least, but Flores’ name has found its way into the speculative mix in New England of late.
4 – Belichick and his future may be the focal point in Foxborough on Sunday, but another would-be future Hall of Fame candidate is likely also taking the field for the final time in New England. Matthew Slater has been an elite special teams player and an even better team leader since arriving with the Patriots as a dubious fifth-round pick in 2008. A decade and a half later he’s established himself as arguably the best non-specialist in the history of the NFL’s third phase of the game. But beyond his ability to cover punts and kicks, Slater has been a captain, mentor, team spokesman and all-around impact force for the team off the field. You’d be hard pressed to find anyone to say anything less than glowing words about Slater, a reputation and legacy that could not be more well-deserved. Slater may not be a star like Belichick, Brady or Gronk, but his contributions are some of the foundation upon which the greatness and longevity of the Patriots were built.
5 – In terms of players and coaches who will not be with New England in 2024, Hunter Henry isn’t exactly a franchise legend. Placed on IR this week to end his season and headed toward free agency, it’s possible and maybe likely Henry has played the final game of a three-year run with the Patriots. A part of the big, expensive free agent class of 2021, Henry started 34 of 48 games played over the three years. He caught 133 passes for 1,551 yards with 17 touchdowns. Those are far from eye-opening numbers, but the reality is that Henry as a consistent, productive, reliable option for both Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe through what wasn’t exactly the golden era of the Patriots passing game. He was a professional on the field and off it. It’s hard to envision Henry returning to New England on a deal that pays him less than the $12 million per season he was making. It’s hard to envision the Patriots paying him more than that through a potential regime change and a rebuild. But Henry has proven in his time with the Chargers and the Patriots that he’s the kind of player and teammate that any organization would be fortunate to have.
6 – Sunday’s finale is probably not exactly what the NFL had in mind when it slotted New York in New England to close out the year. Belichick’s Patriots are locked into last place. Aaron Rodgers’ Jets are just ahead of them in the AFC East, having lost the Hall of Fame QB to injury on the first series of the season in his new home. Technically Rodgers is on the roster for the Jets and could be available to play on Sunday. And Belichick will be on the sideline for New England, even if as a shell of his former successful self who is fighting for his job. In some alternate universe maybe Rodgers is playing this game against Belichick’s upstart defense with playoff positioning or a division title on the line. But, alas, that’s not the reality in this one.
7 – Prediction Time!: With so much big-picture attention on Belichick’s future and New England’s hunt for a top draft pick, what can we actually expect in this otherwise meaningless finale? Well, no action has seemed meaningless to Patriots’ players late in the year and that’s reason to believe the home team can finish in winning fashion. The Jets, on the other hand, have scuffled in recent weeks including their supposed Super Bowl-caliber defense allowing 30 points to the Dolphins, 28 points to the Commanders and 37 to Joe Flacco’s Browns. Both teams field backup quarterbacks in Zappe and Trevor Siemian. There is going to be snow and wind for those guys to deal with against defenses that are capable of making life hard on a QB even on a good day. Both teams will try to run the ball and that’s certainly the weakness for the New York defense, even if New England fields a young, make-shift offensive line. Whichever QB takes care of the ball – Zappe has opened each of the last two games with a turnover on his initial snap – has a good shot to get the low-scoring win. A few wild card factors to keep an eye on are whether Rodgers could take the field for a snap or two in on-brand “I told you so” fashion to prove his health or whether New England does something to honor Slater in his likely final game. Listed as a wide receiver, Slater hasn’t touched the ball on offense since 2016. For a game with no meaning in the standings other than draft pick status, there are a lot of notes and storylines in this “rivalry” that’s seen New England win 15 straight matchups. The projection here is that number grows to 16 with a 16-6 win for the Patriots in what will be Belichick’s final, victorious game in New England. Oh, and look for Slater to not only get a touch on offense but also to see time in all three phases of the game. Why not?!
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