The NFL Draft is a month away and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen, especially after pick No. 2.
It’s expected five quarterbacks will be selected early on, but the draft experts vary in terms of when all five will go. Some have them all going in the first six or seven picks, while others have one sticking a little past No. 10 overall.
In ESPN’s Todd McShay’s latest mock draft, he has the Patriots trading up to No. 11 with the Giants to land Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. Many mock drafts have him going much higher, but the Patriots are reportedly “very high” on him.
“Even after the Niners’ move up the board, it doesn’t appear Jimmy Garoppolo is in the cards this season for the Patriots,” McShay wrote. “And while they brought back Cam Newton, the veteran is only signed for a year at $3.5 million guaranteed. The Pats haven’t spent a first-round pick on a QB since 1993 (Drew Bledsoe), but now is the time. Fields is accurate downfield and can develop into a top-tier starter for a team searching for stability at the position in the post-Tom Brady era.”
McShay has Trevor Lawrence going No. 1 (Jaguars), Zach Wilson No. 2 (Jets), Mac Jones No. 3 (49ers) and Trey Lance No. 7 (Panthers).
The first thing to consider with this trade is the cost.
According to the Rich Hill draft trade chart, which is an updated version of the Jimmy Johnson draft trade chart, the Patriots would need to make up 43 points after trading No. 15 overall to land No. 11 overall. The Patriots’ selection at No. 96 overall (third-round compensatory pick) holds a value of 39 points, so that combined with a future high pick (second or third round) seems more than enough to get it done.
So in the end, the Patriots would likely have to give up picks Nos. 15, 96 and a future high-round pick to move up to No. 11 overall.
With 10 overall picks this year, the deal certainly makes sense and it would just come down to how much they really like Fields.
Selecting Fields at No. 10 overall would be an indication he’s the quarterback of the future and would likely take the majority/all of the 2021 season to learn from Cam Newton and others to ultimately take over in 2022. Or if he shows he’s ready, even during the 2021 season.
Robert Kraft said this week the Patriots need to stabilize the quarterback position, and it would seem Fields would do just that.
So, if the Patriots truly are as high on Fields as what’s been reported and he falls to No. 11, a trade up with the Giants seems like a no-brainer.