They say the 2022 NFL Draft lacks much true high-end, blue-chip talent.
They say that the class of prospects is deeper than it is top-heavy, to the point that there might not be much of a difference between the guy at No. 10 and No. 50. That the value of the draft is in the middle and later rounds.
They say that many teams near the top of the first round, including those with multiple first-round picks, will be looking trade down on April 28.
They say that Bill Belichick, a guy who’s seemingly perpetually looking to trade down on draft weekend to accumulate more picks feels like a lock to move down from the No. 21 selection currently slated for New England in order for the Patriots to collect more of those supposedly valuable mid-round picks to add a broader collection of young talent to the roster.
Whoever they are, maybe they need to look at things a little differently. Maybe they are dead wrong.
With no elite QB prospects available to go early in the draft – unless the desperate Panthers panic at No. 6 overall – the commodity that generally drives costly trades into the top of the first round just isn’t there.
Marry that fact up with the Patriots’ obvious needs, which has to include adding impact talent at wide receiver and cornerback, and this is a year unlike most where Belichick and Co. should and maybe could actually move up in the first round of the draft!
If everyone is looking to trade down in the first round, doesn’t that make it a buyers’ market?
“Traditionally we see teams trade up for quarterbacks and everyone knows it. So that cost is high. The Bears trading up last year for Justin Fields was pretty expensive, it cost a future first-round pick. I’m not so sure that trading up in this year’s draft is going to cost you that,” ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller told the “Merloni and Fauria” show on WEEI this week.
Many believe New England’s top need is cornerback. The spot includes two or maybe three high-end prospects in Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr. and Washington’s Trent McDuffie. The likelihood that those theoretically NFL-ready, starting-caliber corners slide to No. 21 is slim. But, with a trade up to ol’ friend Nick Caserio’s two-pick Texans at No.
13? That’s where a No. 1 cornerback option might just be found.
But, maybe the most appealing target for a trade up would be Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams. In another impressive class of pass catchers that should produce a variety of NFL playmakers, Williams may just have the biggest upside. He was a big-play machine in breakout season for Nick Saban’s Tide with an FBS-best 11 of his 15 touchdowns covering 30 yards or more.
Though he’s coming off a torn ACL suffered in the college football playoff, some describe Williams as the closest thing to Tyreek Hill that this draft has to offer. And we know how much Miami was willing to trade and pay to get Hill. Injury aside, Williams very much has the talent to be next in the line of guys like Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson and Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase to enter the NFL with All-Pro ability.
From a Patriots perspective, Williams and a future married to fellow ‘Bama alum Mac Jones as the playmaking tandem to take the New England offense to the next level might just be a trade away.
“I would love it. I would absolutely love this,” Miller said.
So, Belichick and the Patriots very much have an opportunity in the 2022 draft, but it might not be the one everyone is talking about. There is indeed a fork in the pre-draft road and the path less traveled might be most fruitful. New England needs impact, high-end talent if it is going to continue to build around Jones and try to compete not just for a playoff spot but jockey for Super Bowl contention in an AFC that’s as competitively loaded as it’s been in quite some time.
Trading down is fine. Sometimes it’s the smart move. Adding extra picks can certainly fill out a roster.
But trading down also lowers the number of players a team has to pick from. It generally pushes teams further away from most highly regarded talent. Maybe on paper it looks good to have extra mid-round picks. But if those picks turn into Anfernee Jennings, Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, as was the case in New England in 2020, it doesn’t do a whole heck of a lot to help the team.
Sometimes quantity is great. More often than not, though, quality is what wins in the NFL.
Describing the Patriots aggressive free agent approach a year ago, Patriots owner Robert Kraft told Football Morning in America, “You take advantage of corrections and inefficiencies in the market when you can.”
The 2022 NFL Draft market may offer up an opportunity the Patriots can take advantage of. The crop of quarterbacks is not good. There may not be any QB-crazed franchises looking to tango with teams in the top half of the first round hoping to trade down. That might just create a trade market of value for a buyer like the Patriots, a team targeting another position like cornerback or wide receiver, and a fair, smart deal.
They say Belichick and the Patriots should trade down and collect extra picks in a deep draft.
Poppycock! Forget what they say.
Belichick and the Patriots should trade up next Thursday night for an impact player with elite potential for a retooling team that just doesn’t have enough of those.
As newly-promoted New England director of player personnel Matt Groh said in his pre-draft press conference last week, teams “can't just sit around and wait and hope” to get an “instant impact player.”
“You've got to be proactive about going to go get one of them.”
That’s exactly what the Patriots should do on draft night.
