Through the first six weeks of the NFL season, only two road teams have been favored by at least 8 points at kickoff.
Both teams lost outright.
Since 2003, 1,057 NFL regular-season games had a closing spread of at least 8 points. The team favored by at least 8 points was the visitor in only 213 of those games, or approximately 20%.
It doesn’t happen often — only about 10 times per season. And when it does, the road favorite struggles.
The road team has covered in 43.4% of opportunities since 2003, including in only four of the last 22 games (.181) since mid-December 2021. Most recently, in Week 6, the San Francisco 49ers failed to cover -9.5 in a loss to the Cleveland Browns.
The Niners’ loss came three weeks after the Dallas Cowboys lost to the Arizona Cardinals as a 12.5-point favorite. That game ended an eight-game outright winning streak for road favorites of at least 8 points.
But even with that winning streak, road teams entered this season with an ROI of -5.5%, i.e., if you bet $100 on each road favorite of at least eight points over the 20 years, you would’ve been down $1,135.
As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the Buffalo Bills are an 8.5-point road favorite against the New England Patriots. If the line holds, it’ll be the Bills’ seventh game within this trend over the last four years. They’re 2-4 against the spread and 4-2 outright.
The Patriots have been a home underdog only 13 times since 2003, none of which had a line more than seven points. Their last home game as a dog of at least eight points came in Week 3 of the 2001 season; as an 11.5-point dog, the Patriots blew out the Indianapolis Colts.
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