It took until Week 13, but the Patriots and Bills will meet for the first time this season Monday night in Buffalo.
And it’s a big one with first place in the AFC East on the line. This is just the third Patriots game in December or later under Bill Belichick where the winner is able to take over first place. For the record, the Patriots have won the previous two games.
It should be a great atmosphere in Buffalo with the fans, as well as the potential for bad weather.
The Patriots come into the game winners of six straight, while the Bills got back on track on Thanksgiving with a convincing win over the Saints following a blowout loss to the Colts the week before.
Patriots vs. Bills
Monday, Dec. 6, 2021
8:20 p.m., ESPN
Bills -3, over/under 40.5
3 keys to the game
Establish the run
While the Patriots finished with 105 yards rushing as a team last week against the Titans, the eighth straight game they have gone over 100 yards, it wasn’t a great day on the ground. The bulk of those yards came on the final two drives when the game was already in hand. Overall, the Titans defensive line controlled the line of scrimmage and won the battle in the trenches. It’s important for the Patriots’ line, as well as Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, to bounce back and have a big game. It will be even more important if the weather limits the passing game.
Convert on red-zone trips
These two teams are very evenly matched, except in one category — red zone offense. The Bills come into the game 11th in the NFL, scoring touchdowns on 62% of their red-zone trips, while the Patriots are 24th, scoring touchdowns on 56% of their red-zone trips. Furthermore, the Bills are getting better in this area, while the Patriots are getting worse. In a game that likely will be decided by one possession, the difference between scoring a touchdown and kicking a field goal will be massive.
Force Buffalo to run
There’s no question the Bills prefer to pass, as they have rotated through a number of players in the backfield this season with no one really sticking. Josh Allen (383 rushing yards) has been their most consistent threat. If the Patriots can take away the passing game and force the Bills to win the game on the ground, this will play heavily into their favor. Once again, this is another example of how the poor weather could be an advantage for New England.
Fun Facts
1. According to Boston Sports Info, the Patriots have held opposing quarterbacks to under a 66 passer rating for six straight games. They have only done it in seven straight one time in the Belichick era (2019).
2. The Patriots have had four takeaways in each of the last two games. The last team with four or more takeaways in three straight games was Baltimore (2010-11).
3. Kendrick Bourne needs eight receptions and 46 receiving yards to set career-highs.
4. New England hasn’t allowed a point in the second half in four straight games, which is a team record. The longest streak in a single season is eight straight games by the 1934 Lions.
5. With a win, Mac Jones will join Dak Prescott and Ben Roethlisberger as the only rookie quarterbacks to win each of their first six road games.
Prediction (Season record: 8-4)
Bills 27, Patriots 17
If the weather is really an issue it could tighten the game, but we expect the Bills to pull out a win. They are the more desperate team and the Patriots are due for a loss, especially going up against a very tough defense. A loss doesn’t really change much when it comes to the playoffs since the two teams will meet again in a few weeks at Gillette Stadium. Regardless, it should be a great game and a chance to really see just how good the Patriots are.