Woe be the state of what less than a decade ago was one of the great rivalries in the NFL. The football game that will take place Sunday at Gillette Stadium will be a far cry from the days of Brady vs. Manning, arguably one of the great all-time rivalries in the NFL if not all sports. While some of that rivalry spilled over into Broncos vs Patriots during the tail end of Peyton’s career, the majority of it was Indianapolis vs New England. So many epic clashes and memorable moments. It was the ultimate in appointment sports viewing that truly helped build some of the pillars the modern NFL is held up by now.
After Peyton moved on to Denver, Brady and the Patriots had to contend with his Broncos and a retooled Colts team for years to come! While Andrew Luck never had any success under center vs Belichick, Brady and the Patriots, there was more than rough to stoke the flames of that rivalry anew. From the genesis of DeflateGate to McDaniels’ departure, it remained a heated affair for almost another decade, that is until the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck in the preseason of 2019.
While it would be fun to fall down a nostalgia hole on a Flashback Friday we’re here to weigh in on the current state of Colts vs Patriots, and this Sunday’s game between a struggling 3-4-1 Indy squad visiting a 4-4 Pats team looking to forge an identity of its own.
Brady and Manning, wherefore art thou?
The instability of Indianapolis can be traced squarely to their difficulty at finding a long-term answer at QB (sound familiar?) The Colts have been visiting Rent-A-QB since Luck’s retirement, with no much of his last name to be found, though there was a 2020 Wild Card birth. First it was Jacoby Brissett thrust into the starter’s role. Then a year of Philip Rivers, before his retirement. Last season was The Carson Wentz Experiment. And this year? Matt Ryan, who lasted (we wish we were making this up), 28 weeks and three days as the starter, before being replaced by sixth round sophomore Sam Ehlinger. Ryan’s struggles shouldn’t fully be attributed to his age or Super Bowl 51 or much beyond the Colts having offensive line issues (again, sound familiar?) Thus the insertion of the fleet-footed Ehlinger, who makes his second pro start in Foxboro. This usually is a recipe for a feast by Bill Belichick…but does he have the horses to stop the Ehlinger stampede, which likely will be without all star running back Jonathan Taylor? Last time we were overly confident about a second year QB who was better at running than throwing coming to Foxboro the Patriots lost by 19 points on Monday Night Football. So you’ll have to excuse our less than boastful tone.
That said this could be the right week for Mac Jones, looking to firm his grip on the starting job in New England, to regain the confidence of his fans and coaching staff alike. Last week’s win over the Jets was much as a loss by New York, Zach Wilson’s carelessness with the ball the deciding factor. Indianapolis is much better defensively than offensively, led by the likes of LB Shaquille Leonard (who picked one off of Mac last December), D-lineman DeForest Buckner and old friend Steph Gilmore at corner. They only allow 20 points per game, so perhaps not the get-right game Mac needs heading into the bye, but then again a mistake-free 20 spot against a QB making his second start against a Belichick defense should be more than enough to secure a win on a beautiful November Sunday. One where you’ll have an extra hour of sleep to prepare. Oh goody!
New England is favored by five and a half with an over/under of 40.5. Let’s move on to the experts from near and afar, shall we?
ESPN.com’s experts are all about the Pats.
CBSSports.com was unanimous in their selection of the Patriots.
Four of six at Bleacher Report took the Pats.
NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal says Pats win, Colts cover.
The Sporting News also says Pats win, Colts cover.
Two-thirds of the Boston Globe staff went with the Pats.
The Ringer says “Go Pats!”...at least at -5.5.
The 538.com software says the Pats have a 70% chance to cover.
Florio and Smith at Pro Football Talk agree the Pats will cover.
And even The Gray Lady herself, the New York Times, likes the Pats.
In a Week 9 slate that is more like Weak 9 (hardly a marquee matchup to be found anywhere), the Patriots will pull away in a game bereft of the drama, sizzle and heat of rivalry past. It’ll be another good day to have Nick Folk on your fantasy roster, with a 22-13 final in favor of New England to send the Pats to a 5-4 winning record at the bye.
