From undrafted free agent to 800-yard receiver, Jakobi Meyers is sure to get the best payday of his life when free agency kicks off in a few weeks.
The only question is how much his stock has risen and if the Patriots will be willing to buy all the share or not.
ESPN’s Mike Reiss offered a less-than-promising nugget on that front when projecting Meyers’ free-agent prospects on Sunday.
Reiss opined that the wide-receiver market’s recent explosion could make it difficult for the Patriots get Meyers at a discount, even though they’re used to doing business with Meyers’ agent Drew Rosenhaus.
Though Meyers won’t be nearly in the same class as the monster deals Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and A.J. Brown signed after being traded, he also probably won’t go for something like Hunter Renfrow’s two-year, $16 million extension ($21 million guaranteed) signed during the final year of the Raiders’ receiver’s rookie deal. Keep in mind: that’s $16 million a year for a player with very similar production career-wise, though Renfrow was drafted in the fifth round.
The former NC State product is going to want something long-term (3-4 years), which brings Christian Kirk’s monster signing with the Jaguars (four years, $72 million; $37 million guaranteed) from last year to mind. As insane as that deal seemed at the time, that just appears to be the going rate for a decently productive receiver on the open market these days. (Also, Kirk made it worth it his first season in Jacksonville, racking up more than 1,000 yards as one of Trevor Lawrence’s more trusted targets.)
Kirk, as Reiss notes, only had one more career catch when he signed that deal than Meyers does now, though his marked touchdown advantage (17 through four seasons compared to Meyers’ eight) and pedigree as a second-round kick might’ve helped Kirk score more money.
All that is to say that Meyers could make “between $15 million and $20 million” a year when he signs his deal in March, according to Reiss. That feels like far too steep a price for the Patriots, who have let their share of homegrown talent walk rather than overpay to keep them.
That said, at least you know what your money would be buying with Meyers more so than with another free-agent receiver you could bring in (*stares in Nelson Agholor*).
Decision time will be coming up for New England and Meyers before you know it. If he wants $15 million or more annually and sticks to his guns, that decision might well already be made.
