It’s been three seasons without playoff wins for the Patriots, and fans are starting to ask a question that seemed heretical not long ago: should Bill Belichick’s job be in danger if that postseason winless streak extends to four years?
On its face, that notion feels too extreme. After all, Belichick has an unrivaled resume in NFL history and just led the Patriots back to the playoffs with a rookie Mac Jones in 2021.
But the pressure to build on last year’s wildcard exit, combined with an off-season plan that still doesn’t seem to make sense.
What’s more: the Boston Herald’s Andrew Callahan relayed information from sources on WEEI last week that the team is still formulating its post-Josh McDaniels offensive playbook ahead of training camp. When the playbook is finalized, some combination of Joe Judge, Matt Patricia, or Bill Belichick might be in the offing.
If it doesn’t work out in 2022, what does that mean for Belichick?
Chris Price of the Boston Globe, a long-time Patriots reporter and host of the "Patriots Report" podcast with former New England running back LeGarrette Blount, thinks it would probably take a lot for the exemplary coach to lose his job.
"I think if the wheels came off this year and they finished 5-12 and Mac Jones regressed and looked awful…if things just went off the rails this year, then I think there's a chance that they fire him," Price told the "1st and Foxborough" podcast Monday afternoon. "But unless that happens, I don't think they fire him.
"I still believe this is the guy who's going to be here until he breaks Don Shula's all-time wins record in a couple of years and then they let him retire, resign, whatever the case may be. But I don't think he's going to be fired this unless things just become so absolutely awful this year that the Krafts [Robert and Jonathan] have no other choice."
For those scoring at home, Belichick currently sits at 311 regular season wins, which is just 17 behind Shula all-time. Also, Belichick needs just five more wins to pass Shula in total wins (including playoffs).
It would be hard to envision the Patriots forcing him to reach that number with another team unless the situation became utterly untenable. And though Price acknowledged Belichick might be "spreading himself too thin" by increasing his role in the offense, the veteran Patriots reporter downplayed the idea of Belichick losing a step as a coach just yet.
However, the odds certainly seem to be against the Patriots returning to the playoffs with the Buffalo Bills primed to win a third-straight division title, the Miami Dolphins surging (on paper anyway), and a hellacious war for wild-card spots brewing in the AFC West and AFC North.
Unfortunately for them (or perhaps fortunately for the optimist), last year's return to the playoffs and Mac Jones' solid rookie campaign has raised the stakes for the Patriots once again.
"My expectation for this team -- they need to win at least one playoff game. They need to be able to get the Elite 8 of the NFL," Price added.
Much of whether the Patriots accomplish that or not depends on Jones' performance and what that allows the team to add to the roster in 2022 once their salary cap space opens up again.
In particular, a rough season for Jones would reflect poorly on Belichick and his offensive coaching experiment as well as the roster he surrounded Jones with over the past few seasons.
On the other hand, Jones making the most of a potential awkward situation could convince Belichick to take one last big swing at winning a title, according to Price.
"A lot of that is going to depend on Mac and if he's able to progress, if they're able to find people on the defensive side of the ball. Then, maybe they have a shot at it," he said. "For me, ultimately, when you talk about additions next year, a lot of it comes back to timing and a lot of it comes back to Mac's progression."
