It is officially NFL preview season, and that includes win-loss projections. While most of those projections are completely subjective, some formulas try to take a more objective, mathematical approach.
One of those is ESPN's Football Power Index, which attempts to project each team's efficiency on offense, defense and special teams based on its roster to determine a rating that essentially reflects how many points above or below average a team is. ESPN then uses those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times and create win-loss projections.
ESPN released its 2021 FPI ratings and projections this week, and it turns out the model is at least somewhat optimistic about the Patriots.
The Patriots rank 10th in raw FPI at plus-1.7, with its No. 4 revamped defense and No. 2 special teams projections making up for a 19th-ranked offense. ESPN doesn't specify if the model expects Cam Newton or Mac Jones or some combination of both to start at quarterback.
When it comes to the record, FPI has the Patriots at 9.3-7.7 (so 9-8 rounded off), which ties them with the Dolphins for fifth in the AFC, just barely ahead of the Titans and Colts.
The Chiefs top both the AFC and the NFL (yes, ahead of Tom Brady's Buccaneers) at 11.5-5.5. The Bills (10.6-6.4), Ravens (10.1-6.9) and Browns (10.0-7.0) round out the top four in the AFC.
The model gives the Patriots a 53.7% chance to make the playoffs, a 23.2% chance to win the AFC East, a 5.4% chance to make the Super Bowl, and a 2.6% chance to win the Super Bowl.
Kansas City has the best chance to win the Super Bowl at 18.5%, followed by Tampa Bay at 14.5%.
At the other end of the spectrum, FPI projects the Texans to be the worst team in the NFL this season at 5.1-11.9. ESPN's Seth Walder explains that the model is operating under the assumption that quarterback Deshaun Watson will not play for Houston this year.
The Jets are projected to have the third-worst record and bring up the rear in the AFC East at 6.4-10.6.
