The Oxford dictionary defines rivalry as “competition for the same objective or for superiority in the same field”. In that sense then yes, Patriots vs. Jets is indeed a rivalry, especially now in a more competitive than expected AFC East and AFC playoff landscape, one that currently features both teams as playoff qualifiers. Gentle reminder: there are still eight weeks to go before the postseason.
But can a matchup that has been as lopsided as Pats-Jets for the past twenty-plus years, and especially in recent year, be what we know a rivalry to be? The Pats have won the last 13 straight, from the 2016 season on, including Week 9’s 22-17 affair at MetLife Stadium. Jets fans were all riled up that day, thinking that their day had come to knock the Pats off, redefine the pecking order in the AFC East, or at least get out from under Bill Belichick’s thumb. Alas, their quarterback Zach Wilson had other plans.
There’s no denying the teams are much closer in talent than the one-sided nature of this rivalry would have you believe. The Jets have a top five defense…but so do the Patriots. Perhaps that says more about the teams they’ve faced thus far, with New England facing an easier first half schedule. The Jets were in position to take command of their previous matchup, but a roughing the passer call negated a Mac Jones pick-six, and ultimately the Pats defense forced Zach Wilson’s charitable nature with the ball to appear once again. The Jets bounced back nicely the next week, defeating the Buffalo Bills at home, while the Pats took care of Sam Ehlinger and the Colts in a snoozer for the ages, leading to coach Frank Reich’s dismissal.
Defense hasn’t been the problem for either team, rather consistent offense plaguing both squads all season long, particularly in the passing game. Zach Wilson, when asked to stay on script, has been effective enough, or at least not THE reason the Jets lose. His nature says he wants to improvise and play a game more reminiscent of Patrick Mahomes, but when the Jets run and he doesn’t throw the ball to the other team? The Jets win. Whereas Mac Jones has just flat-out struggled to get any sort of passing game going this season, outside of the first half of the home opener vs. the Ravens (a game the Pats ultimately lost as Jones threw three costly INTs). So much has been made the past several weeks about the predictable nature of the play-calling in New England, the timing issues between Mac and his receivers and the offense’s regression as a whole. Players and coaches talked about working on these issues during the bye week. Going up against the Jets D-line and secondary featuring excellent corners Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed likely won’t help out of the bye gate.
We’d say whichever team gets the most pressure on the QB will win, but these are the 31st and 32nd ranked QBs under pressure this season, so that’s kind of a draw. Jones was sacked six, yes SIX, times in the first half the previous matchup. Perhaps the return of center David Andrews, who missed two games with a concussion, will help stabilize a Pats line that was shaky at best in his absence.
Both teams are as motivated as possible, with each wanting to hold on to their playoff spot. The Pats want to turn their torpid offense around and start the second half of their brutal schedule with a home win before beginning a four prime time game stretch. The Jets could be in first place of the AFC East with a win, and are also undefeated on the road, 4-0, this season. Belichick famously hates the Jets. The Jets, from fan to team, despise Belichick and everything Patriots. Seems, smells and feels like a rivalry game to us!
Bad news for the Pats is they have the toughest second half schedule in the NFL. So if they’re going to hold their playoff reservation they’ll certainly have to earn it, starting SUnday against the team that wants to beat them so badly they can taste it.
The Pats are favored by -3.5, with an over/under of 38. The weather will be, like Belichick when asked about the Jets, chilly. All the makings for a heated divisional showdown.
The stage is set. The dramatics and dynamics are plentiful. Let’s see what the experts are saying.
Locally…
Four of six at The Boston Globe pick the Jets.
CBS Boston takes the (GASP!) Jets to win!
And nationally…
All of the ESPN.com experts (except for Stephania Bell) pick the Pats.
Four of six at Bleacher Report pick the Jets…not just to cover but TO WIN.
Three-Fourths of the CBS Sports folk (including Prisco, La Canfora and Brinson) take the Pats.
USA Today has four out of five experts who pick the Pats.
NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal has the Jets by a field goal.
The NY Times says “Go Pats!”
Three out of five at SI’s MMQB take the Patriots.
The Sporting News has the Pats by a field goal.
The Ringer is on the Pats.
Both Florio and MDS at Pro Football Talk see a Patriots win.
It’s a split verdict, half Pats and half Jets, over at SB Nation.
And The 538 program algorithm thing gives the Pats a 61% chance to win & cover.
Here? We’re calling for the upset…which is wildly unpopular, but until we see the Patriots offense get out of their own way it’s hard to ay, other than hoping Zach WIlson gifts the game to the Patriots again, that Mac Jones can regain his form in time to top one of the league’s best defenses. Hoping for heaping servings of crow and humble pie come Sunday at 4pm. Until then, it’s the same score as Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com; Jets 19, Pats 16.
Don’t miss the 6 Rings Postgame Show immediately following the game on WEEI to discuss if the Pats ran the streak to 14, or if they’re 5-5 and looking up at the AFC East first place Jets.
