Forget a Powerball ticket, the newest way to win the lottery is to catch the football!
In case you hadn’t noticed, the contracts for high-end NFL wide receivers have been exploding of late.
Mediocre talents at the position like Cardinal-turned-Jaguar Christian Kirk got a deal that averages nearly $20 million a year.
The Raiders gave up a first-round pick and then some to deal for Packers star Davante Adams, before giving their new No. 1 target a deal worth $28.5 million a year over five years.
Miami then took a similarly aggressive approach, sending a first-round pick and much more to Kansas City in a trade for dynamic playmaker Tyreek Hill, giving the Dolphins the right to shell out more than $72 million guaranteed to the Cheetah.
As the NFL salary cap is set to explode thanks to new streams of revenue and massive long-term TV contracts, so too is the amount that teams are investing in wide receivers. Quarterbacks still lead the pigskin paycheck party, but suddenly the guys on the other end of passes are soaring up the pay scale.
Some probably think it’s crazy money for guys who rely so heavily on someone else to do their jobs, and it’s not hard to think that the value-based brain behind the Patriots success over the last two decades might be one of those dubious minds. Bill Belichick, the economic major out of Wesleyan, hasn’t been overly prone to paying market prices over the years at almost any position and certainly hasn’t embraced the idea of setting the market too often with a mega-deal.
All will agree, though, that Belichick is indeed still very much on the lookout for a No. 1 wide receiver to pair with presumed franchise QB Mac Jones for the foreseeable future. The reality is that the QB1/WR1 pairing appears to be the new blueprint for success and Super Bowl contention in modern NFL action.
Maybe Belichick, with more than $80 million in projected salary cap space a year from now will do business as business is currently being done on the wide receiver market. Maybe, just maybe, he’ll shock us all.
Names like 49ers All-Pro Deebo Samuel, Seahawks oversized speed burning stud D.K. Metcalf, Titans big-bodied playmaker A.J. Brown and Commanders underrated pass catcher Terry McLaurin are all on course to hit the free agent market next March. Belichick will have the money it takes to pursue one of those No. 1 options, the cash and cap to dole out $100 million to land a true go-to guy.
But there is a much more palatable, potential-field, value-based option that Belichick has at his disposal.
It’s the course of action that’s worked so well in places like Minnesota and Cincinnati. It’s how teams like San Francisco, Seattle, Tennessee and Washington got their hands on their own strong-handed studs that they now must decide whether to pay up for or not.
Samuel had 1,400 yards in San Francisco in 2021 for a cap number of less than $2.1 million. Bengals rookie Ja’Marr Chase had 1,400 yards for a cap number of $5.6 million as the No. 5 overall pick. Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson, the 22nd pick in the 2020 draft, has had consecutive seasons with more than 1,400 yards with cap numbers below $3 million each year.
The productive list goes on and on across the league.
Yes, we’re obviously talking about the draft. Yes, we know, that same draft where Belichick swung and missed with the N’Keal Harry pick in the first round back in 2019 with Samuel, Metcalf, Brown and McLaurin all on the board. The same annual draft that hasn’t really seen Belichick pick and develop a top receiver prospect since Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch’s arrival back in 2002.
But if at first…or if over 20 years you don’t succeed, try, try again!
Much like the last few years that saw impact receivers arrive with impact rookie seasons across the NFL, this year’s draft class is theoretically loaded with another crop of would-be star pass-catchers. And the Patriots sitting with the No. 21 pick in the first round will have a shot at one of those guys.
Sure, who that guy is depends on how the board plays out ahead of New England in draft night. But history tells us with virtual certainty that there will be a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver on the board at 21.
At that point Belichick should pounce! Forget the bad contract given to Nelson Agholor. The Patriots can’t have a Harry hangover. Learn from history and don’t repeat it. It’s all wide receiver water under the bridge at this point.
Some may find it hard to envision Belichick going after a receiver early in the draft given his recent and non-so-recent struggles to pick players at the position.
But isn’t it even harder to envision Belichick going the route of the Raiders, Dolphins, Jaguars and others and investing silly sums of money (and maybe traded draft picks) on a veteran at the position?
Targeting a wide receiver early on draft weekend not only would fill a potential long-term need, it presents a value opportunity, the kind of value that Belichick seemingly lives for. For years it’s been accepted that having a starting quarterback on cap-friendly rookie contract was one of the most valuable assets in all of sports. That’s true. But given the recent explosion of salaries at receiver, having a No. 1 receiver on rookie contract is quickly becoming almost as valuable.
A year after landing his cap-friendly franchise QB with the No. 15 overall pick, Belichick should swing for the team-building fences on April 28 in an effort to fill the No. 1 receiver slot.
Pairing QB1 with WR1 could lead to a lot of games being won once again.
It only makes sense – salary cap dollars and cents!
