Only time and performance – both from the team as a whole and the individuals involved – well tell exactly how much the Patriots aggressive, lucrative moves in 2021 free agency pay off in the long run.
New England had plenty of salary cap space to address its many, many roster needs. And Bill Belichick did just that in a way that he’s never done before.
Will winning the month of March lead to winning in January and beyond next season? Not even sage old Belichick can answer that.
For now, we’re left only to analyze the way New England addressed its needs in acquiring talent on the open market. So here we go with reactionary grades to all the Patriots’ reported signings before the ink is even dry on the deals!
TE Jonnnu Smith
Reported Contract*: 4 years, $50 million ($31.25 million guaranteed)
Grade: A-minus
Analysis: Tight end was easily one of the Patriots three biggest needs and Smith was one of the two best options on the open market. He has major playmaking upside as a 25 year old coming off career highs of 41 catches and eight touchdowns. New England paid like Smith’s best years are ahead of him and they very well could be as one of the centerpieces of the new-look Patriots offense.
OLB Matthew Judon
Reported Contract: 4 years, $54 million ($30 million guaranteed)
Grade: B-plus
Analysis: Fears of an Adalius Thomas redo – even if his bust factor in New England as a prime 2007 signing are overblown – are understandable given the similarities between the two players’ stories. Judon is a good but not great pass rusher with a couple Pro Bowls under his belt over the last two years in Baltimore. He’s the type of versatile, solid, two-way edge option Belichick loves to utilize. As one of the biggest defensive free agent signings in team history Judon faces obviously high expectations. Even if he doesn’t live up to those or his impressive paycheck, he’s a huge addition to what was an undermanned defensive front last fall.
TE Hunter Henry
Reported Contract: 3 years, $37.5 million ($25 million guaranteed)
Grade: B
Analysis: Two tight ends have been a big part of the New England plans over the years. And we’re not talking about last year’s fruitless draft double-dip on mid-round picks Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are the measuring stick. Before that there were first-round picks Daniel Graham and Ben Watson. Henry is about as solid a tight end as you could ask for. His numbers have never been huge, but he can block, run and catch. Paired with Smith he gives New England one of the best tight end combos in football. The deal is relatively short and near the top of the position pay scale. Is Henry worth it? Maybe not, but that’s how free agency works. He’s certainly very good and will help Josh McDaniels’ offense immediately regardless of the QB.
DB Jalen Mills
Reported Contract: 4 years, $24 million ($9 million guaranteed)
Grade: A-minus
Analysis: We’re probably higher on this addition than most. Mills is a jack-of-all-trades defensive back who can play any spot in the back end. He provides a young layer of insurance if Devin McCourty starts to look old at free safety. He adds experienced depth at cornerback depending on how things work out with Stephon Gilmore and restricted free agent J.C.
Jackson. He also could just be a versatile puzzle piece for Belichick to move all around the secondary against modern pass-happy attacks. The expectation here is that Mills more than proves more worthy of the relatively reasonable money.
DT Davon Godchaux
Reported Contract: 2 years, $15 million ($9 million guaranteed)
Grade: C-plus
Analysis: Godchaux had a career-high 75 tackles in 2019 and proved himself a durable run stuffer missing just one game over his first three seasons. He missed most of last year to a pectoral injury. At his best he’s a 60-percent playtime defensive tackle who’ll help bring stout play to a run defense that needs it. The guaranteed money is nothing to sniff at over a short deal and it’s far from a sexy signing but Godchaux should have a positive impact on the front.
WR Nelson Agholor
Reported Contract: 2 years, $22 million ($16 million guaranteed)
Grade: D-plus
Analysis: The Patriots needed wide receiver help. They needed speed. Six years into his NFL career the former first-round pick Agholor is coming off his best season when he averaged 18.7 yards per reception while tying a career-high with eight scores. Making less than $1 million, it was the first time he’d ever averaged more than 12 yards a catch in his career. He topped 60 catches twice in an Eagles uniform. If Agholor brings what he did for the Raiders to New England he’ll be a welcome speedy deep threat making good money. If he’s more like the guy who struggled with drops at times for the Eagles, the price will seem high for an at-best No. 2 receiver on a team that needs much more from the position.
WR Kendrick Bourne
Reported Contract: 3 years, $15 million ($5.25 million guaranteed)
Grade: C-plus
Analysis: Again, the Patriots needed plenty of help at wide receiver. Maybe Bourne’s scouting report as a guy who finds a way to get open and catch the ball, including in the red zone, will make him a pleasantly surprising contributor. But he also seems to somewhat replicate what Jakobi Meyers already brings to the offense coming off a 59-catch season on an undrafted rookie contract. Bourne started just 13 of 47 games played over the last three years for a more talented 49ers arsenal. He seems more like a complementary option than anything else, though he is coming off a career-best 49 catches.
The money isn’t alarming.
DT Henry Anderson
Reported Contract: 2 years, $7 million ($3 million guaranteed)
Grade: A
Analysis: Anderson is a very solid, versatile veteran defensive lineman. He could be a Lawrence Guy replacement or combine with Guy to bring more flexibility and depth to the defensive front. The former third-round pick is great value after making $7 million for the Jets a year ago. His sack numbers fell off the map after a career-high of 7 three years ago, but Anderson should be a solid if unspectacular contributor for Steve Belichick’s defense and a great value.
*Contract numbers via OverTheCap.com
