It's no secret the Patriots don't have the kind of top-flight No. 1 receiver fans crave heading into the 2022 NFL season. The group is much more in the "good" category from top to bottom rather than a "great" one, and an injury here or there could upset the balance of the unit as it did last season.
But does the lack of elite pass-catching talent mean second-year quarterback Mac Jones is doomed to regress in 2022? Not necessarily.
A recent article from Pro Football Focus that studies the correlation between quarterback decision-making and productivity (as measured by EPA/play) suggests, not surprisingly, that making the right choices on a given snap, e.g., like throwing to the receiver with the most separation, adds the most value to an offense.
Interestingly, Mac Jones already proved one of the better decision-makers in football last season as a rookie and ranked 11th among NFL quarterbacks in EPA/play, which bodes well for the idea that he should at least be able to maintain his level of play from a year ago if not surpass it.
Why does that matter for the Patriots and their receivers this season? Because making the correct decision with the football often involves targeting players who aren't your No. 1 receiver.
"Having really good secondary options, good second and third receivers, is really important because most good defensive coordinators can take out a No. 1 option with a good game plan," said CLNS Media's Evan Lazar on the "1st and Foxborough" podcast Friday. "We know that with Bill Belichick [whether] it's Stephon Gilmore or Darrelle Revis taking a No. 1 guy, or it's doubling a No. 1 guy out of the game, or you put safety help over Tyreek Hill and he's not the same guy as he is when he sees single coverage, you can game-plan guys like that out.
"So when you do, when you play a team like Buffalo, and you take Stefon Diggs out of the game with a game plan, what can the Bills do to beat you other than throw to Stefon Diggs? And I think the Patriots have that in mind."
Rather than paying a true No. 1 receiver $25 million a season, Lazar added, the Patriots have opted to spread their receivers to a number of different targets that have served to balance out their receiving corps. After N'Keal Harry couldn't contribute much as a big-bodied target -- New England just traded him to the Chicago Bears, if you hadn't heard -- the team traded for DeVante Parker to fill that void. The Patriots also grabbed more speed by selecting Tyquan Thornton, whereas their lone speed threat last year was Nelson Agholor. Thornton's height at 6-foot-3 also provides a level of insurance if Parker gets hurt, as is his wont.
Of course, that plan doesn't come without caveats as Lazar pointed out.
"The question is: because they don't have that alpha, because they don't have that top dog, is everyone going to be bunching up a little bit too high in that Nelson Agholor is your No. 1 when he should be your No. 2, or DeVante Parker is your No. 3 when he really should be your No.
4?" he said.
It's worth noting the Patriots have long had a No. 1 pass-catcher of some kind even when that player wasn't a wide receiver (specifically talking about Rob Gronkowski here). So simply saying New England doesn't usually build around a true No. 1 outside receiver, while somewhat true, is misleading.
There's also the importance of Mac Jones finding the "go-to" guy or two he can constantly rely on, as former Patriots assistant Scott Pioli mused this week. Of course, it doesn't take a dominant force on the outside to be "versatile, smart, and reliable," which are the qualities Pioli said always defined Tom Brady's most trusted targets.
However, there's something to be said for using the lack of superstar weaponry to your advantage (as much as you can) by stocking up on as many solid options as possible and then probing mismatches wherever you can find them.
After years of stymying the NFL's best receiver, perhaps that's what Belichick's defensive mind is seizing on now as he constructs his offense: how do you stop an passing attack where everyone is good enough to win a matchup, even if there's no one person that can beat you singlehandedly?
Throw in a rushing attack that could once again be one of the league's best, and perhaps the strategy can be described thusly: instead of challenging opponents to stop one or two unstoppable players, the Patriots want to make defenses believe they have to stop everything. Everywhere. All at once.
