Bill Belichick has seen assistant coaches and front office members depart New England numerous times over the last several seasons.
But he’s been able to replace them, mostly from within, and really not miss a beat.
Following the 2018 Super Bowl win over the Rams, the Patriots lost a number of coaches including Brian Flores, Josh Boyer, Chad O’Shea, Brendan Daly and Jerry Schuplinski, but were able to promote a few coaches from within and add an established name in Bret Bielema to keep things on track.
A year later, Dante Scarnecchia retired after one of the best assistant coach runs in the history of the NFL and also lost front office executive member Monti Ossenfort. Once again, the Patriots were able to survive with Scarnecchia grooming the next group of offensive line coaches, and then some front office members getting their roles elevated after years of experience and Eliot Wolf was added.
Then last offseason, Nick Caserio left for Houston and long-time Belichick confidant Ernie Adams called it a career. More members of the front office got promoted and Matt Patricia returned.
Despite some mistakes which could be attributed to coaching this season, by and large the Patriots have remained on track despite all these losses to the coaching staff and front office because they’ve had adequate replacements in house or have brought in the right people.
That may not be the case this offseason.
Director of player personnel Dave Ziegler and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels are off to Las Vegas and unlike in the past their replacements are not obvious and seamless.
Without McDaniels, and assuming running backs coach Ivan Fears retires like is expected, the longest-tenured offensive coaching staff member is tight ends coach Nick Caley (five years as tight ends coach, two as coaching assistant). Therefore, no internal coaches are in a great position to assume the role of offensive coordinator.
Bill O’Brien’s name has come up as a top candidate, which makes a lot of sense, but it’s not as perfect of a transition as some in the past. It’s been 10 years since O’Brien was with the Patriots, so while he’s familiar with Belichick and the organization, lots can change over a decade.
And then what if O’Brien doesn’t happen? Where would they go from there?
The offense has a huge hole to fill without McDaniels leading the way and it's bigger than simply one person.
Then in the front office, Ziegler had learned from Caserio for so many years so it was easy for him to take over most of his duties this season. That will not be the case for whoever replaces Ziegler. Wolf seems like the leader in the clubhouse, but he only has two years of experience working for Belichick and the Patriots.
And who knows what happens to some of the other members of the coaching staff. It’s always possible McDaniels takes one or two of them with him to Las Vegas, or another opportunity could open up.
In terms of replacing staff members, this will be the most challenging offseason in quite some time for Belichick. Eventually, the replacement cupboard is bare.
And that’s not the only thing he has to worry about this offseason.
While the Patriots are in a better position than they were last offseason, the roster still has plenty of difficult decisions and spots to fill. And it’s not like 2021 where they have close to the most cap space in the league. It’s actually now close to the lowest.
Belichick and the organization are going to need to get creative and perhaps part ways with some significant pieces who helped the Patriots win a lot of games over the coming weeks and months.
It’s not an impossible task to ask of Belichick, but in the end all these losses recently have to catch up to the organization, right?
