If his 4,336 yards passing as a rookie in 2020 weren’t enough, Justin Herbert has cemented his status as the premier young, rising star quarterback in the NFL through seven weeks of play this season.
So what’s the difference between Herbert and Mac Jones?
Aside from a lust for steak, spaghetti, and homemade cookies, the major difference between the two is that Herbert has running backs who don’t fumble the ball.
The perception of Jones not being similar to that of Herbert can be boiled down to one thing: record. The Chargers are 4-2 and the Patriots are 3-5. The fine print says that the Patriots have only beaten the Jets and Texans, but the finer print says that the Patriots hung with the Buccaneers and Cowboys until the very last play. Through matter outside of Jones’ control, the Patriots are an atom’s length away from being 5-2 and Jones being viewed comparably to the likes of Joe Burrow and Herbert.
This is not to tear Herbert down to being less than great. The perception of Herbert has as much to do with that 4-2 record as a team and the presence of big name stars such as Keenen Allen, Joey Bosa and Derwin James as much as it does with Herbert just being really, really good.
How far Herbert has come is especially notable following a season in which Herbert’s development was left at the hands of one Anthony Lynn, who famously responded, “I’m not sure,” when asked about his clock management chops, and the fact that the team had no intentions of actually playing Herbert last year had it not been for the team doctor accidentally puncturing Tyrod Taylor’s lung.
Not only was Herbert just 38 yards shy of breaking Andrew Luck’s rookie passing yards record, but the advanced metrics also check out. So far in 2021, Herbert is ninth in total QBR, is the 11th-ranked quarterback according to PFF metrics, and has the tenth-lowest turnover-worthy play percentage among qualifying quarterbacks. He has a decent offensive line but has had to overcome them a bit this season -- namely against the Cleveland Browns, a game in which the Chargers scored 47 points and only won by five points. He’s had to overcome his own defense, as well.
Herbert actually has one of the bottom 10 intended depth of target marks of all quarterbacks in the NFL, but his tenth-highest aggressive percentage indicates he’s been effective attacking smaller windows. This also explains, in part, Herbert being in the bottom half of the league in expected completion percentage, right around the same mark as notable crappy quarterbacks Davis Mills and Patrick Mahomes.
The onslaught of stats is to illustrate that the perception of Herbert, which may have dipped a bit following the blowout loss to the Ravens, was probably a bit higher than it should have been up until that game. Herbert is still a top ten quarterback and has the Chargers in great hands for the next 15 years, but he’s closer to ten than he is to one.
There’s no reason why Mac shouldn’t be viewed similarly to Justin. The outdated idea that wins are a quarterback stat has heavily contributed to the lack of respect for Mac as one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s not Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Kyler Murray, but he’s at least Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
Projecting into the future, there’s far more reason to believe Jones will be the quarterback to consistently have the best coaching and supporting class than any of the quarterbacks I just listed, except for maybe Lamar Jackson.
Focusing on Herbert, Chargers general manager Tom Telesco’s inability to give his quarterbacks a top tier offensive line is a theme of his tenure as the team’s GM. Aside from 2013’s inherited unit, Chargers offensive lines have only finished outside the bottom ten in DVOA twice. This season they're 14th through six games. History indicates the unit the Chargers trot out in front of Herbert will typically be around that level or worse.
This isn’t to take credit away from Herbert -- it’s to give Herbert credit and to point out that Jones has likewise overcome poor offensive line play. Trent Brown has been about as fragile as a teenage virgin’s ego this season, and Patriots fans know all too well how Yasir Durant and Justin Herron have performed. New England pass blocking efficiency on the season is well below that of the Chargers, and the only Patriots offensive lineman with a top 60 pass blocking grade in the league is Ted Karras, who isn’t a full time starter. 2021 has been the worst Patriots offensive line year in the Belichick era.
Yet the Patriots are two running back fumbles and a missed field goal in a hurricane away from being 5-2. Jones isn’t far behind Herbert in most quarterback stats you can get your hands on, both normal box score and more analytical categories. But at least at this point in the season, Jones has had to overcome more than Herbert and should be viewed far more similarly to Herbert than he has been so far in his fledgling career.