Don’t let the talk of a rookie red-shirt season or nightmares about 17 more games with Cam Newton under center in New England ruin your summah, first-round pick Mac Jones indeed should and very likely will be the starting quarterback for the Patriots this fall.
Really, the only question is when.
Jones, hyped up by many as the most “pro-ready” passer in the class when he was rumored to be slotted for the No. 3 overall pick to San Francisco, was selected by Bill Belichick with the No. 15 overall pick for one simple reason – New England very much needs a worthy starting quarterback a year removed from GOAT Tom Brady ditching the dynasty he helped build in Foxborough.
Belichick knew he needed a starting-caliber QB, for both the present and the future.
His billionaire boss, Robert Kraft, knew his cash-cow team and most passionate non-family love needed a quarterback, something he articulated quite clearly leading up to the 2021 NFL Draft.
Media and fans also knew the need.
After all, all had watched the Patriots sludge through last season on the way to a 7-9 record that was far from good enough to compete for the postseason while the affable, likeable, not-good-enough Cam Newton threw a 1930’s-worthy eight touchdown passes.
So, as he so often has done over his two decades running the Patriots war room, Belichick targeted an obvious need with his first-round pick. And while he may have immediately tried to slow the roll on Jones’ Patriot Nation hype train by saying “Cam’s our quarterback,” the reality is that he’s not.
History shows us that Belichick selected 18 players in the first round of the draft from 2001-2020, most to fill immediate or near-future obvious needs. Of those 18 players 15 started at least one game during their rookie season. More than half of them, 10, started Week 1 of their rookie season. Fourteen of the 18 guys started in the first five weeks of their first taste of professional action, with eight ending up playing double digit starts in Year 1. (All those numbers would have grown had Isaiah Wynn not torn his Achilles in the 2018 preseason, landing on IR.)
None of those guys were quarterbacks you say? That’s obvious and very much true.
So, let’s look at recent history of quarterbacks taken in the first round over the last five NFL Drafts. Again, that’s a list of 18 players. Every one of them not buried behind a Hall of Fame MVP QB (Packers, Jordan Love), started at least one game as a rookie. Ten of the 18 started at least 10 games during their rookie season, a number that would have grown if Deshaun Watson had not torn his ACL midway through 2017 in Houston.
Of course the most notable example of a quarterback biding his time on the bench as a rookie for seemingly developmental reasons – a tact some have curiously promoted as a plan for the Patriots – is current positional measuring stick Patrick Mahomes. He started and played just one game in 2017 (the season finale) after joining a Chiefs team that’d won 12 games a year earlier under the capable guidance of established Pro Bowl veteran Alex Smith.
Sorry, Jones and the Patriots certainly don’t have that rare luxury.
Oh, and remember the last time the Patriots needed a starting quarterback in the offseason and took one in the first round of the NFL Draft? Yup, Drew Bledsoe was notoriously-tough-to-please Bill Parcells’ selection at No. 1 overall back in 1993. Mr. Don’t-put-him-in-Canton-yet started Bledsoe Week 1 because the team that had gone 2-14 the previous season needed him to and didn’t want to rest its hopes on Scott Secules.
Belichick was specifically asked on draft night how long Newton would be penciled in atop the QB depth chart and responded with, “I don't know. Somebody would have to play better than he does.”
Based on last season – really the only season that matters in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world of NFL football and life in New England – that shouldn’t be too hard.
Jones was drafted after an historically-productive season in which he threw for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns and just four picks was completing a record 77.4 percent of his passes to lead his ultra-talented Alabama squad to the national championship.
The more we hear and read about Jones, seemingly the more there is to like well beyond the statistics. His attitude, worth ethic and drive are those of a rookie who will do what he needs to do in order to be ready when asked to play, while his skills are certainly the kind that Josh McDaniels should be able to mold into a more than adequate option sooner rather than later.
“He’s a charismatic leader, and I love his pocket movement,” noted one NFC offensive assistant coach.
It’s pretty simple. Jones is the best option Belichick has at the quarterback position, that’s why he was drafted.
Over the next four months of OTA work, training camp action and preseason production, the confident rookie will get the chance to prove that. He’ll have every opportunity to “play better” than Newton and leapfrog the veteran on the depth chart. (Sadly, Jarrett Stidham likely remains a forgotten man.)
And come the fall, Jones will almost certainly get his chance to step under center at Gillette Stadium and show his stuff, likely sooner rather than later.
As New England first-round pick history under Belichick, recent first-round QB trends and one of the most popular streaming shows in recent memory have taught us, this is the way.