The question isn’t who you WANT to be the Patriots starting QB in 2021, Cam Newton or Jimmy Garoppolo. The question is which one WILL be the Patriots starting QB in 2021.
You and I need to face reality: Cam Newton is likely one and done with the Pats. Jimmy G is the better bet for ‘21.
I love what I’ve seen from Newton, as I’m sure you have. I wrote last week that Bill Belichick should guarantee Cam’s 2020 bonuses now as a sign of good faith and start long term negotiations.
But remember, it’s against the Patriots ethos to pay any player - including quarterbacks - elite money. Robert Kraft once admitted to Peter King the secret credo driving his Tom Brady contract negotiations: “I was trying to stay ahead of the curve. If we were going to have to pay him elite-quarterback money and have elite-quarterback cap numbers, I just didn’t think we would be able to build a team. We don’t want to have a team where we’re paying 18 to 20 percent to a player on the cap.”
Barring a serious setback from Covid, Newton is set to cash in on that elite money from some NFL owner. Maybe Newton will fall in love with the Boston Seaport and let the waters of Massachusetts Bay baptize him in Kraft’s revolution against the arial aristocracy … but I doubt it. Most likely this “business trip” that Cam is on will result in a mega offseason contract elsewhere.
And if Newton leaves, Belichick might just paint another bargain QB masterpiece by bringing his former man-crush Garoppolo back on a low, low deal.
Just how low? NFL numbers guru Michael Ginnitti of Spotrac told me yesterday “the veteran minimum deal to rejoin New England is very much on the table.”
Now, Ginnitti admits that much about the 2021 offseason is unknown at the moment. Included in ‘21 free agency could be a large QB crop with the following signal callers available: Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Dak Prescott, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, Jameis Winston, Daniel Jones and Phillip Rivers.
But here’s a second prediction from Ginnitti that you might like: “The Pats are going to be poaching players left and right with a surplus of cap space in a down cap year.”
And why? Because they won’t have mortgaged Gillette Stadium to lock Newton in for four more years. Belichick will realize that what’s best for the football team is holding true to franchise family values and spreading that available money around, not falling head over heels for the new smokeshow in town.
If Newton departs, Belichick could turn to Jarrett Stidham. Or another of the aforementioned free agent QBs that come loose at a bargain.
But Belichick won’t just hand Stidham the car keys, and Garoppolo is the clubhouse leader to provide competition for some obvious reasons: he’s young, he knows the system, and just two years ago Belichick fawned over him more than perhaps any other player he’s ever coached.
After Brady ordered the Code Red and got Jimmy G jettisoned in 2017, ESPN reported that Belichick was “furious and demoralized.” Then, of course, Bill secretly handpicked a destination for Garoppolo taking less return in draft capital than he could have received elsewhere, all just to ensure Garoppolo’s future success.
The admiration was so strong per Sports Illustrated, Belichick texted Garoppolo after each one of his five starts in San Francisco in 2018. Garoppolo’s Mom Denise even described their relationship this way: “Bill really, really liked Jimmy. Not like they were warm and fuzzy -- but they both knew it was there.”
And on top of this established coach-QB chemistry, think of this: getting Garoppolo back in Foxborough and winning - after a perceived Jimmy G failure with the 49ers - would be yet another giant notch in Belichick’s ledger vs. Brady in the legacy debate of who-made-who. It would be Bill’s ultimate revenge for TB12 (briefly) forcing his way into personnel matters to get JG10 marooned in the west.
Josh McDaniels might love Garoppolo’s return, too, with another twenty-something QB in the fold giving him more reasons to stay as coach-in waiting while Belichick chases Don Shula’s win record.
Sure, Garoppolo has flaws. He’s been a little injury and turnover prone, and couldn’t get it done in a Super Bowl. He might need a good running game and defense to succeed. Right now, he looks ordinary as a passer. But isn’t all of that exactly how Newton looked before Belichick got his hands on him?
There’s some working material there with Garoppolo, starting with a 22-7 NFL record and just one full year of starting wear-and-tear under his belt. Jimmy G has made just 32 starts (including playoffs) to Newton’s 134, which adds up to over 400 fewers NFL quarters of abuse.
Now, it's not a fait-accompli that San Francisco will let Garoppolo go, but they’re currently in trouble with a 2-3 record and a difficult remaining schedule. They just benched Garoppolo in favor of C.J. Beathard after a poor first half performance. Garoppolo’s contract was structured to give the team an out after this year: no more guaranteed money if he’s cut, and yet a 25.5 million dollar cash price tag if he’s kept.
The stars are aligning for Belichick and Garoppolo to be reunited. Cam Newton is the present, and life ain’t bad for the New England Football Team… but that doesn’t mean the future can’t look different and bright as well. Bill Belichick and affordable quarterbacks is the Patriot Way.
