The New England Patriots dynasty has, of course, come to an end. Tom Brady just won the Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New England didn’t even make the playoffs. The latest indication that the Patriots are just a run of the mill team now is where they rank in the betting odds to win the AFC East next season.
The Patriots’ odds to take the division are currently +480 (odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook), which are the third longest behind the Buffalo Bills (-170) and the Miami Dolphins (+280). THIRD.
These are the Patriots. But these are officially not the dynastic Patriots whose fans were once spoiled by greatness. The last time the Patriots failed to win the AFC East before this past season was in 2008. And now the Bills are heavy favorites to repeat their division win next season, while the Patriots are second to last on the list just ahead of the New York Jets (+1600). The JETS.
Foxborough is in a state of flux right now, considering the team is unsure of who the starting quarterback will be next season. The Patriots are also facing an identity crisis. They used to have the prestige, name recognition, and reputation as the best of the best behind coach Bill Belichick. And now that’s gone. The team is literally asking fans to “stick with us” as they figure out how to start winning again.
There is a small chance Cam Newton returns as the starting quarterback, but the uncertainty at the position surely contributes to the long odds facing the Patriots to win the AFC East next season. The team is not getting the respect it used to from oddsmakers after going 7-9 this season. And their odds of success have gotten longer since around this time last year.
On March 3, 2020, the Patriots’ opened as favorites to win the AFC East at -250. This was just two weeks before Brady signed with the Buccaneers on March 17. The day before Brady’s announcement, New England’s odds were at -225, the day after, -110. There was still confidence in Belichick without Brady.
But on September 8, the Patriots were not favored to win the AFC East entering a season for the first time since 2003, with +138 odds to the Bills’ +116. By November 23, the gap widened considerably with the Patriots at +2525 and the Bills at -546.
The Bills went on to win the AFC East on December 19. Oddsmakers are clearly confident the Patriots will not have it in them to keep Buffalo from repeating.
NFL free agency is looming and New England has to do something to get their current reputation out of the tank. But if they don’t make a drastic move at the quarterback position, their odds to win the AFC East will only get longer.
New England’s current odds is a major indicator of where the perception of them lies currently. And it’s definitely not the gold standard we’re used to.